You may have been wondering -- or maybe you haven't. Someone in the last week has posed each of these questions and so I answer them here:
Q. Where will Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo end up?
A. After years of slamming its finger in the same door, the market is now properly valuing aging, immobile sluggers, and it isn't pretty for their agents. I believed one of the former Blue Jays would wind up back with Toronto because they obviously have a hole to fill at that position. With the parrot carrier now poised to bash homers in Cleveland for millions less than he was seeking, I wouldn't be surprised if Joey Bats re-ups at a discount with the Jays. He isn't exactly winning Miss Congeniality votes from other teams. And Baltimore seems to be in hottest pursuit of Trumbo, but also at pennies on his expected dollar.
Q. What are the Mets going to do with their outfield situation?
A. Give Terry Collins headaches? Best guess, unless something dramatic happens: rotate Cespedes and Granderson through centerfield, giving Lagares spot starts and and shuffling him in as a defensive replacement late in games. Send the non-CF Cespedes/Grandy to right and leave Comforto in left to show he can hit. Jay Bruce is a righty bat off the bench. Lots of options if someone gets hurt or doesn't pan out.
Q. Who are your World Series favorites right now?
A. Answering this question is a fool's errand, but I'm game. The World Champion Cubs are the same team as last year, flipping Dexter Fowler for Kyle Schwarber and Aroldis Chapman for Wade Davis. In the AL, the Red Sox are poised to allow about 400 runs next year. The Cy Young winner is their #3 starter.
Q. Now that Bud Selig, who presided over the Steroid Era, is in the Hall of Fame, shouldn't we vote in guys like Bonds, Clemens and McGwire?
A. I don't really see that logic. Selig didn't cheat. That said, I've always been in favor of putting those guys in the Hall.
Here's the problem: you've got Bowie Kuhn in the Hall of Fame, a guy who had an 0-162 record fighting the players' union and who could hardly name a single accomplishment as the commissioner. You've got Gaylord Perry in the Hall, an inveterate cheater who got caught on the field altering baseballs. You've got Lloyd Waner, a thoroughly average Major Leaguer, in the Hall because he batted .316 for his career even though that was his signature skill and team batting averages topped .300 in the '30s. But you want to exclude the top player and pitcher of their era because there's evidence they took an unfair advantage during a portion of their career. It makes no sense.
Q. With the Braves signing all these old former stars, do they really think they have a chance this year?
A. Puff you're inhaler, Braves fans. These guys are just filler. They're signed to one-year deals. If they play well they'll be shipped out mid-season for more prospects.
Q. What do you make of the Diamondbacks?
A. Much like the United States of America, they hired a pair of amateur hacks to run the organization with predictable results. Now they've gotten professional management in there and find themselves with some promising young assets across the infield. Their task going forward will be to acquire some rotation pieces behind Zack Grienke or they'll never contend. Easier said than done.
Q.Not a baseball question, but what do you think of star college football players skipping their bowl games to prepare for the draft?
A. How dare they act in their own best interest! Major college football is about amateur athletics, not about some money grab, says the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl.
Q. If Mike Trout played at replacement level for five more years and then retired after the requisite 10-year career, would he get into the Hall of Fame? How about if he was average over the next five years?
A. No and no, because you need more than five stellar seasons to make the Hall of Fame. But the premise of your question is correct. Mike Trout is the greatest player in baseball history over his first five seasons. (He was also the greatest over his first one, two, three and four.) Give him three more Trout seasons and then five bad or mediocre years and he's in.
Q. What about Sandy Koufax? He was a below average pitcher who made the Hall of Fame with five great seasons.
A. Good point. Koufax got extrapolated credit for all the years he didn't pitch after retiring early. Had he pitched at replacement level for three seasons following that unbelievable run I doubt he gets in.
Q. Will the Red Sox regret trading Clay Bucholz? You can never have too much pitching right?
A. They won't regret getting $10 million closer to the luxury tax cap.
Q. Should the Mets trade Jay Bruce?
A.
Okay, you're the GM of another team who could use a big bat. The Mets
offer you a 30-year-old .250 hitter with 30-homer pop and mediocre
defensive skills. What would you give up to get that? For now, I think
the Mets should be glad that they have some hitting options to back that
pitching staff.
Q. What do you see from the vantage point of San Diego?
A. The ocean.
Q. Come on, I mean what are the Padres' prospects for 2017.
A. At least they have the ocean.
Happy holidays to all!
Showing posts with label Terry Collins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Terry Collins. Show all posts
23 December 2016
24 October 2015
World Series: It's a Tossup
"Predicting the future is easy. Getting it right is the hard part."
Just as you predicted, the Mets and Royals meet for the World Series title. At season's start, projection systems rated the Mets above average. Indeed, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system had NY winning the first Wild Card. Alas, it also pegged KC 20 games under .500.
Since those projections were made, each team added some pieces. The Royals nabbed Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, and over to Flushing went Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and most notably Yoenis Cespedes. But they are basically the teams that started the season. Particularly in Kansas City's case, it's hard to argue that their trade deadline pitching acquisition (4-7, 4.76) is responsible for their success.
So if you had this quinella in March, please email me immediately with this week's winning Powerball numbers. One hundred dollars on these two teams to meet in the World Series would have yielded you $78,400. Place your bets!
Which leads to the question, who has the edge? Will this be the first championship for a team since 1985 (Royals over Cards) or 1986 (Mets over Red Sox)?
Who Will Win
The answer, as usual, is, "who knows?" It's a seven-game series. The Phillies took five of seven from the Cubs this year. Whatever else you read here is simply subtext.
That said, the Mets and Royals are both acceptable representatives of their leagues, the Royals because they were the best team wire to wire and the Mets because they took off once Cespedes joined the squad and Matz returned from injury. And Wilmer Flores cried.
The dominant narrative is the Mets' power arms against the Royals' broad skill set and experience. That's a simplification, of course, but it is true that New York is much less balanced then Kansas City. Should any two of the Mets' hurlers stumble, it would likely spell disaster for them. You can't fall behind early against the Royals, especially if Ned Yost has "accidentally" given Ryan Madson the wrong directions to the ballpark.
The Edge Goes To...
Starting rotation is the big edge the Mets have, and much is being made of that. But that would be true of any team against KC because they are purposely constructed backwards on the mound. No team is more lethal than KC if their starters can muddle through two-thirds of the game with a lead. This strategy has worked for two seasons and is particularly effective in the playoffs, given the short leashes starters generally have now. Ignore that at your peril.
One more thing about the Mets' rotation. It is over-rated right now. It is over-rated because its youth and promise account for some of its allure, but the World Series is being played this week. We're all projecting out what deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz could be, and the possibilities make us drool (particularly when we recall that Zack Wheeler will join them next year.) But the Thor who will face Lorenzo Cain had a 3.25 ERA and a susceptibility to gopher balls.
I've debunked much of the home advantage in the playoffs in this post. (Spoiler alert: it comes into play in a seven-game series only if it goes the distance.) But in this particular case, there is a slight edge to Kansas City. No team is woven more snuggly to its home ballpark than the Royals, who value speed and athleticism over pure power in their wide-gapped stadium. Of course, Citi Field is no homer dome either, so some of that small advantage is offset.
There's always talk about it, but there's no evidence that experience is of any value, particularly now that both teams have run the playoff gauntlet. It is worth observing that no deficit appears insurmountable to the Royals, and whether that's a function of team psychology or skill set, it's a good quality to have.
Rust, on the other hand, is measurably detrimental to playoff teams. The Mets will have spent nearly a week waiting for the Series to begin by the time they get underway Tuesday. Long rest can help an older team with a key player hobbled by injury and a clear ace they would like to line up for three starts. But none of those advantages accrue to the Mets.
Both teams are managed by men who appear to do a great job molding coherent units out of disparate parts. Terry Collins's in-game strategy gets the edge over Ned Yost's because everyone's in-game strategy gets the edge over Ned Yost's.
Again, absolutely anything can happen on the road to four wins. Noise is just so loud at that level that a few missed notes here or there might not matter. That said, the Royals have some small advantages and I would rate them slightly more likely to win their first World Series in 30 years. Then again, Al Weiss...
Just as you predicted, the Mets and Royals meet for the World Series title. At season's start, projection systems rated the Mets above average. Indeed, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system had NY winning the first Wild Card. Alas, it also pegged KC 20 games under .500.
Since those projections were made, each team added some pieces. The Royals nabbed Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, and over to Flushing went Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and most notably Yoenis Cespedes. But they are basically the teams that started the season. Particularly in Kansas City's case, it's hard to argue that their trade deadline pitching acquisition (4-7, 4.76) is responsible for their success.
So if you had this quinella in March, please email me immediately with this week's winning Powerball numbers. One hundred dollars on these two teams to meet in the World Series would have yielded you $78,400. Place your bets!
Which leads to the question, who has the edge? Will this be the first championship for a team since 1985 (Royals over Cards) or 1986 (Mets over Red Sox)?
Who Will Win
The answer, as usual, is, "who knows?" It's a seven-game series. The Phillies took five of seven from the Cubs this year. Whatever else you read here is simply subtext.
That said, the Mets and Royals are both acceptable representatives of their leagues, the Royals because they were the best team wire to wire and the Mets because they took off once Cespedes joined the squad and Matz returned from injury. And Wilmer Flores cried.
The dominant narrative is the Mets' power arms against the Royals' broad skill set and experience. That's a simplification, of course, but it is true that New York is much less balanced then Kansas City. Should any two of the Mets' hurlers stumble, it would likely spell disaster for them. You can't fall behind early against the Royals, especially if Ned Yost has "accidentally" given Ryan Madson the wrong directions to the ballpark.
The Edge Goes To...
Starting rotation is the big edge the Mets have, and much is being made of that. But that would be true of any team against KC because they are purposely constructed backwards on the mound. No team is more lethal than KC if their starters can muddle through two-thirds of the game with a lead. This strategy has worked for two seasons and is particularly effective in the playoffs, given the short leashes starters generally have now. Ignore that at your peril.
One more thing about the Mets' rotation. It is over-rated right now. It is over-rated because its youth and promise account for some of its allure, but the World Series is being played this week. We're all projecting out what deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz could be, and the possibilities make us drool (particularly when we recall that Zack Wheeler will join them next year.) But the Thor who will face Lorenzo Cain had a 3.25 ERA and a susceptibility to gopher balls.
I've debunked much of the home advantage in the playoffs in this post. (Spoiler alert: it comes into play in a seven-game series only if it goes the distance.) But in this particular case, there is a slight edge to Kansas City. No team is woven more snuggly to its home ballpark than the Royals, who value speed and athleticism over pure power in their wide-gapped stadium. Of course, Citi Field is no homer dome either, so some of that small advantage is offset.
There's always talk about it, but there's no evidence that experience is of any value, particularly now that both teams have run the playoff gauntlet. It is worth observing that no deficit appears insurmountable to the Royals, and whether that's a function of team psychology or skill set, it's a good quality to have.
Rust, on the other hand, is measurably detrimental to playoff teams. The Mets will have spent nearly a week waiting for the Series to begin by the time they get underway Tuesday. Long rest can help an older team with a key player hobbled by injury and a clear ace they would like to line up for three starts. But none of those advantages accrue to the Mets.
Both teams are managed by men who appear to do a great job molding coherent units out of disparate parts. Terry Collins's in-game strategy gets the edge over Ned Yost's because everyone's in-game strategy gets the edge over Ned Yost's.
Again, absolutely anything can happen on the road to four wins. Noise is just so loud at that level that a few missed notes here or there might not matter. That said, the Royals have some small advantages and I would rate them slightly more likely to win their first World Series in 30 years. Then again, Al Weiss...
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