A Bad Ending To a Nice Story

Two unfortunate jammed thumbs in the same game have sent Trevor Story to the operating room to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and ended his rookie season.

View the sad video here.

Story had just eclipsed the home run record for rookie shortstops with his 27th when he lost his battles with the second base bag and the ground.

It's a shame for Story, for the surging Rockies and for all baseball fans, who were robbed on one of the greatest years by a first year middle infielder.

So to soften the blow, for at least those of us without a rooting interest, let's extrapolate his whole season and see what we get.

The 23-year-old Texan was batting .272 with 67 runs, 21 doubles, four triples, 27 home runs, 72 RBIs, 35 walks and eight stolen bases in 97 games (of 105) as a rookie. Entering Tuesday, his 27 home runs led the National League and his 72 RBIs were fifth in the NL.

So for the mythical full season, Trevor Story, as a 23-year-old rookie shortstop who flashed leather at that key position, batted .272/.341/.567, 20% better than the average NL batter. 

He contributed:

• 42 home runs,
• 32 doubles,
• six triples,
• 103 runs scored,
• 111 RBIs,
• 54 walks and
• 325 total bases.

He's rated at 4.6 WAR by Baseball Reference, a number dampened by his home park.

Trevor Story won't win the Rookie of the Year award and he won't make the playoffs. And some rookie shortstop in the near future is going to crush his home run record.  Baseball is a cruel game.

Ten Performances No One Could Have Predicted

Every year, for grins and giggles, I post Baseball Prospectus's pre-season projections for teams and individual players. They're as accurate as long-term weather forecasts.

And to prove it, let's talk about Adam Duvall. Here's what SB Nation said in March about Duvall, a spare part in a trade that sent fourth starter Mike Leake to the Giants.

"A bench bat. Duvall plays the corner outfield and infield spots with something that couldn't quite be called aplomb. He has enough power to run a fastball here and there, and enough plate discipline to be a decent pinch-hit bat. He could be a useful bit part as the Reds reboot. That's it. You don't have to read more."

And here's what the 28-year-old Kentuckian has done: He's smacked 22 league-leading home runs in 268 at bats while posting a .587 slugging mark.

Adam Duvall is this year's Shane Spencer, the Yankee phenom who batted .373 and crushed 10 homers in the final 27 games of 1998 and ended his career mostly as a backup with a .262 average and 57 dingers. Duvall flashes iron at a variety of positions, runs like molasses going uphill and sports a .287 OBP even in his surprising breakout season. So no one is writing epic poems about the majesty of his play. Still, the experts thought he'd be a bench bat.

2. Mark Trumbo -- You forgot about Trumbo, didn't you? Once a 30-HR slugger for the Angels, he averaged 18 homers and 64 RBIs, posted a .303 OBP and averaged 0.2 WAR per season the last two years while butchering first base. A liability on the basepaths, his baseball hourglass seemed to be running out of sand, even after the Orioles picked him up this off-season from the Mariners for a relief pitcher.

Lo and behold, Trumbo leads the Majors in yard blasts and his .331 OBP has helped him earn two wins for the O's, anchoring a record-slugging Baltimore lineup. PECOTA projected him for 0.6 WAR all season.

3. Steven Wright -- He put instant coffee in the microwave and went back in time. He spilled spot remover on his dog and made it disappear. He bought some batteries but they weren't included.

No wait, that's Stephen Wright. Steven Wright is a right-handed knuckleballer for the Red Sox who bounced between the bullpen and the rotation last year, and had to compete for the last spot in the Boston rotation this spring. This year he's leading the AL in ERA, complete games and fewest home runs allowed. If you failed to pick him up in your fantasy league, where he was certainly available, the joke's on you.

4. Trevor Story -- Here's the story of a man named Trevor, who was definitely a prospect in the Rockies' farm system. In fact, he was rated their 11th best before connecting on a pair of bombs in game one against Zack Greinke. Story set April on fire and has cooled since, but his 19 homers and good defense at short have added two wins to the Colorado ledger, and it's not like anyone predicted that.

5. Danny Salazar -- It's not like Salazar came out of nowhere -- he went 14-10, 3.45 and whiffed 195 batters for Cleveland last season. But he's broken out this year -- 10-3, 2.22 with 107 Ks in 93 innings. The projection systems pegged him for 12-10, 3.56.

6. Carlos Beltran --Add 39 years, two broken-down knees, one lifeless glove and a useless 2014 and you get Carlos Beltran. The question going into the season wasn't whether he'd make the All-Star team; it was whether he'd garner playing time in the Bronx.

Well, the borderline Hall of Famer is making his case, with a .297 batting average and 19 home runs. As long as you don't look at the low walk rate, the putrid defense and the complete loss of speed, his play sure looks like more than the notch above average that it is.

7. Tyler Chatwood -- His 8-4, 3.15 is a lot more impressive when you realize he pitches in Denver, Home of the Dinger. The projections had him at 5-6, 4.30 after missing 2015 with his second Tommy John surgery. Still, he's owned in only a third of fantasy leagues, suggesting that no one can believe what they're seeing.

8. Wil Myers -- Remember when Wil Myers was the best rookie on the planet, and then the worst sophomore, then given up on by the Royals, then fading into oblivion -- all in the span of three years? This spring, Dave Cameron of Just A Bit Outside wondered, "Are Wil Myers' flaws fixable?"

Looks like it, Dave! Myers has already established career highs in homers, RBIs, runs scored and OPS in half a season in Petco, where bats go to die. He's the best player on San Diego this year, which isn't saying much, but gets you an All-Star berth.

9. Chris Tillman -- Every year, Baltimore confounds the pundits by competing in the AL East when all the number-crunching says they shouldn't. One of the key reasons is one hurler or another outperforming his expectations by several orders of magnitude. 

Tillman has done this before -- four times, in fact. But his inability to strike anyone out led to doubts about his future and a 4.99 ERA last year. This year his 91 Ks in 99 frames has him at 10-2, 3.71 as the ace of the American League East pacesetters.

10. Aledmys Diaz -- It's pronounced Uh-led-mas, which is important, because no one in the U.S. knew that three months ago. The only Aledmys in MLB history, this Cuban free agent showed promise in the Minors and was penciled in to help replace Jhonny Peralta at short for the Cards this season. 

Few people projected full-time play for him, much less a rookie performance of .316/.374/.517 and 10 home runs in his first 75 games.

Bonus! Rich Hill -- Hill was rattling around the independent leagues a year ago and hadn't started a Major League contest since 2009. In 11 starts with Oakland this year he's 8-3, 2.25, whiffing 10 hitters per nine and earning the same value as Miguel Cabrera. You can look it up!

Stuff Worth Noting in 2016

As of May 22...

After starting 25-6, the Cubs have gone 4-7. So shut up.

Bryce Harper had 31 walks. That's four fewer than . . . the entire Kansas City Royals roster.

Last year, Jon Jay managed five doubles one home run and no steals for the Cardinals. As of May 22 he had contributed 12 doubles, two steals and a homer for the Padres.

The Mariners have 18 road wins after 43 games. Last year they didn't get their 18^th road win until game 77.

Injuries limited Hunter Pence to nine homers and 40 RBI last year. He's at seven homers and 32 RBI already this season.

According to Baseball Prospectus calculations, the fifth, sixth, and seventh most valuable hitters on the Phillies are pitchers.

Through August 6th last year, Jackie Bradley had popped one pair of homers and a single double among his six hits. Now in a 26-game hitting streak, he has eight homers and 10 doubles among his 52 safeties. And we're two-and-a-half months from August 6th.

Cardinals rookie Jeremy Hazelbaker is four years older than Mike Trout, who is playing in his fifth season and has 149 home runs. 

Dee Gordon and AJ Pierczynski were stars last season. In 2016, Gordon is banned for 80 games. Pierzynski is hitting .211 without power.

Cameron Maybin hit .194/.313/.367 in a month of rehab games, then .600/.652/.750 in a week of Major League games.

Albert Pujols hit .312 or better for 10 straight years. He hit .244 last season and is at .221 this year.

The Phillies are six games over .500 despite being outscored by 31 runs. 

Tanner Roark won four games all last season and allowed 17 home runs in 111 innings. We're just in May of 2016 but he's already won three games and limited opponents to three homers in half as many innings.

Second basemen are outhitting left fielders this season by 28 points of OPS. That's a 78 point reversal of the norm.

Rockie Rookie Trevor Story was the big story in April with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored in April. In May, he's hit just two homers with 11 RBI and eight runs scored. Of course he's still the Story, but he's also still the story, because this month he's batting .313. Add it all together and annualize it: the 23-year-old shortstop is hitting .285-48-124 with 44 doubles, 16 triples and 108 runs scored. Quite a Story.

Dallas Keuchel (first in Cy Young voting last season), David Price (second), Sonny Gray (third) and Chris Archer (fifth) combined for a 2.71 ERA in 2015. They are at 5.70 today.

Some of this information came from Baseball Prospectus and Sports on Earth.

Early Season Quirks

Trevor Story is a rookie. He is a shortstop. Twenty-five games into the season he has out-homered Adrian Gonzalez (293 lifetime homers), Matt Holiday (278), Joey Votto (194), Ryan Zimmerman (201) and Jason Heyward (97). Combined.

Nolan Arrenado has hit twice as many home runs as . . .  the Atlanta Braves.

The Major League leader in batting average and slugging percentage is Aledmys Diaz. Yes, THE Aledmys Diaz. The rookie shortstop from Cuba is hitting .423 for the Cardinals.  See what warmer relations can do?

Dallas Keuchel last April: 3-0, 0.73. Dallas Keuchel this April: 2-3, 4.41.

Robinson Cano has slugged eight home runs in April. He didn't hit his eighth last year until July.  The year prior his eighth home run came in August.

Mat Latos, 2015 -- 4-10, 4.95 for three teams. Mat Latos, 2016 -- 4-0, 1.84 for the White Sox.

Through July of last year, the Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley was batting .125 with one homer, two triples and three RBIs. Through April 2016 he's hitting .273 with a homer, four triples and 13 RBI. He had more triples and RBIs in yesterday's romp over the Yankees than during the entire first half last season.

Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00) may be for real.

Dee Gordon is suspended for 80 games for using performance enhancing drugs. He has smashed eight home runs in more than 2000 plate appearances. Keep that in mind next time you profile someone as a steroid user.

Travis Shaw is hitting .314/.385/.500 and vacuuming up grounders at third base for the Boston Red Sox. He's the guy replacing Pablo Sandoval, who hit .245/.292/.366 before injuring himself tripping over his own belly last year. Sandoval subtracted from the Sox a win against replacement last season at a cost of $17.6 million. For less than the point-six of that, Shaw has already earned Boston more than a win this season, a 7.2 WAR pace. So the actual, rather than average or theoretical replacement value of the Kung Fu Panda is minus-8 wins and $17 million lost. If you prefer the glass half full, Shaw's actual value replacing Sandoval is 8 wins + $17 million.

Mike Moustakas has scored 11 runs and knocked in 11 runs. He's singularly accounted for seven of each with home runs. Those Royals teammates haven't helped him much.

The Marlins are hitting .267 and have scored 85 runs, a little more than three per game. The Cubs are hitting a mere .255. They've tallied 136 runs, a little more than five per game. Good old batting average.