What We've Learned From the Playoffs So Far

Nothing.

No really, we haven't learned a thing.

The playoffs are a lottery. A five-game series at a particular moment in time doesn't tell us anything about the two teams that are competing, unless the Chicago Cubs are playing O'Neil's Texaco, my winless Little League team.

The Indians deserve credit and congratulations for defeating Toronto in the ALCS. Terry Francona earned his master's degree in Pitching Strategy and the bullpen delivered like an obstetrician. But Cleveland, now down to one reliable starter, can't claim a superior rotation to Toronto's quartet of Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada, and it can't claim bigger boppers than the Blue Jays'.

But when speedster Coco Crisp hits home runs and rookie Ryan Merritt, he of 11 Major League innings, pitches shutout ball, it vividly demonstrates what a roll of the dice a handful of games is.

By the same token, what can we possibly deduce from Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist becoming Sandy Koufax -- the hitter -- for the playoffs? It's all of seven games at this writing, three of which involving Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw.

We're down to three teams, one of which will win the World Series, and there's two chances in three they'll erase a multi-generational curse while they're at it. It'll serve to spark a dogpile, quench a fan base and add to jewelry collections.

It just won't prove a thing.

Stop Calling Them Favorites!

In a post I wrote earlier this week, I almost described the Chicago Cubs as "World Series favorites." I quickly edited myself because, as experience has taught us in the Wild Card era, there is no such thing.

It's true that the Cubs are almost certain playoff participants, which seems to be the one and only corollary with champion. Every team that has won the World Series has first earned a playoff spot.

Beyond that, there are no guarantees, or even good bets. Consider this:

Does the best team win? Since 2010, only three of the 12 teams with their league's best record earned a World Series berth.
Does the team with the best top two starters win? This old wives tale has gained currency, but there is nothing backing it. The Royals won the pennant the last two years without an ace. The Dodgers with Kershaw and Greinke made exactly zero World Series. The Red Sox anchored by Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz? won the 2014 Series over the Cardinals' tandem of Adam Wainwright and ... Shelby Miller? And so on.
Does a shutdown bullpen win the Series? Sure, that worked for the Royals, but every contender has a great arm at the back of the pen. The 2014 World Champion Giants' closer, Sergio Romo, sported a 3.72 ERA and lost his job the following season.
Does the hottest team win the pennant?  Lots of research on that one: nope, no correlation whatsoever. Indeed, the 2006 Series pitted a stumbling 83-win Cardinals against a Detroit squad that finished 12-17 in the season's final month.
What role does chance play? Now you're talking. The playoffs are a lottery.

On the other hand, the better your team, the better you like your chances. You can at least avoid the play-in game and get that tiny home field advantage. Two great starters is a real asset. And you'd rather have a reliable bullpen than not. So in that sense, the Cubs have as good a chance as anyone who makes the playoffs.

Just not any better.

Windshield, Meet Bug

When the Braves took the field against the Cubs yesterday, it was like a nail squaring off against a hammer. Take a look at the lineups:

Braves: Jace Peterson, 2B, .285 True Average
Cubs: Tommy La Stella, 3B, .302 True Average
Cubs +17
Braves: Adonis Garcia, 3B, .241
Cubs: Kris Bryant, OF, .350
Cubs +109
Braves: Freddie Freeman, 1B, .333
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, .346
Cubs +13
Braves: Nick Markakis, OF, .260 (5 HR in last 1049 PA)
Cubs: Ben Zobrist, OF, .321 (5 HR in last 135 PA)
Cubs +61
Braves: Jeff Francoeur, OF, .259

Cubs: Wilson Contreras, C, .342
Cubs +83
Braves: Gordon Beckham, SS, .310 (in 110 PA)
Cubs: Jason Heyward, OF, .246
Braves +64
Braves: Tyler Flowers, C, .286
Cubs: Addison Russell, SS, .282
Braves +4
Braves: Ender Inciarte, OF, .236
Cubs: Javier Baez, 2B, .290
Cubs +54
Braves: Lucas Harrel, P, lifetime 4.79 ERA
Cubs: Jason Hammel, P, lifetime 4.43 ERA
Cubs +36
Braves: Manager Brian Snitker, organization lifer, interim manager
Cubs: Manager Joe Maddon, generally regarded as baseball's smartest skipper


This is a short-handed Cub team that's lost Dexter Fowler (.320 TAv), Jorge Soler (.281) and Kyle Schwarber (.307 last season) to injuries, but it still dominates at 7 of 9 positions, and we haven't even looked at the pitching staffs. Facing Atlanta means worrying about one hitter -- Freddie Freeman while the Cubs scare you two-through-six at least.

Utility infielder/outfielder Javier Baez is 10th on Chicago with 1.2 WAR so far this year. That would place him third on the Braves, behind Freeman and Julio Teheran.

So, needless to say, David slew Goliath, 4-3, with power-challenged cleanup hitter Nick Markakis slamming two home runs.

Baseball.