The Braves are the New Pirates..Or Astros...or Whoever

It seems like a long time ago that the Atlanta Braves were a dumpster fire of Minor Leaguers and MLB castoffs. On July 24, the team had lost 66 of their 99 games, on pace to jettison their manager and finish with 104 losses, the most futile outfit in the sport.

Many of us recognized that Brave management had punted 2016 and were arranging their chips for 2017 or 2018, with the bloom still on their new suburban ballpark. In this space I had identified Cincinnati as the most hapless franchise because, while their Major League talent was slightly greater than Atlanta's, they seemed to lack a plan.

The Braves, on the other hand, simply appeared to be in Year One of the rebuild that had begun Year Two in Philadelphia, and that had recently paid dividends in Pittsburgh, Houston and elsewhere.

Turned Into a Newt, They Got Better
One thing about young talent: it has the capacity to learn and improve. By year's end, the Braves had nearly caught the Phaltering Phils, jumped over feckless teams in Minneapolis, San Diego, Cincinnati and St. Petersburg and moved within a half game of two other teams. Winners of 11 of their last 13, the Braves could have surpassed the records of seven MLB teams given another week of the season.

Deals of their tradeable commodities for future assets helped pave the way, giving the youngsters a free year to sharpen their craft, which they did. In the waning days of the season, they flipped a Minor League albatross for Matt Kemp, adding badly-needed power and a veteran leader for next season. 

With under-25 Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith joining Freddie Freeman and Kemp in next year's lineup, and with Julio Teheran anchoring a juvenile staff that benefits from a year of schooling under its belt, Atlanta has a chance to make some noise next year. They appear to have passed Philly in that department and have certainly left the Reds, Brewers, A's and others in the rear view mirror.

Windshield, Meet Bug

When the Braves took the field against the Cubs yesterday, it was like a nail squaring off against a hammer. Take a look at the lineups:

Braves: Jace Peterson, 2B, .285 True Average
Cubs: Tommy La Stella, 3B, .302 True Average
Cubs +17
Braves: Adonis Garcia, 3B, .241
Cubs: Kris Bryant, OF, .350
Cubs +109
Braves: Freddie Freeman, 1B, .333
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, .346
Cubs +13
Braves: Nick Markakis, OF, .260 (5 HR in last 1049 PA)
Cubs: Ben Zobrist, OF, .321 (5 HR in last 135 PA)
Cubs +61
Braves: Jeff Francoeur, OF, .259

Cubs: Wilson Contreras, C, .342
Cubs +83
Braves: Gordon Beckham, SS, .310 (in 110 PA)
Cubs: Jason Heyward, OF, .246
Braves +64
Braves: Tyler Flowers, C, .286
Cubs: Addison Russell, SS, .282
Braves +4
Braves: Ender Inciarte, OF, .236
Cubs: Javier Baez, 2B, .290
Cubs +54
Braves: Lucas Harrel, P, lifetime 4.79 ERA
Cubs: Jason Hammel, P, lifetime 4.43 ERA
Cubs +36
Braves: Manager Brian Snitker, organization lifer, interim manager
Cubs: Manager Joe Maddon, generally regarded as baseball's smartest skipper


This is a short-handed Cub team that's lost Dexter Fowler (.320 TAv), Jorge Soler (.281) and Kyle Schwarber (.307 last season) to injuries, but it still dominates at 7 of 9 positions, and we haven't even looked at the pitching staffs. Facing Atlanta means worrying about one hitter -- Freddie Freeman while the Cubs scare you two-through-six at least.

Utility infielder/outfielder Javier Baez is 10th on Chicago with 1.2 WAR so far this year. That would place him third on the Braves, behind Freeman and Julio Teheran.

So, needless to say, David slew Goliath, 4-3, with power-challenged cleanup hitter Nick Markakis slamming two home runs.

Baseball.

Can Braves Broadcast Do Better Announcing This Stinkbomb of a Team?

Braves' broadcasts offer an intriguing experience this season because of the challenge facing the broadcast crew when their team is hopeless. 

Braves lose....again.

A really good broadcast team recognizes the following and adjusts accordingly:

1. No individual game matters. If the Braves win tomorrow, they'll be 19-46. If they lose they'll be 18-47. Eight percentages points worth of suck one way or the other.
2. Almost none of their current players matter. Jeff Francoeur, AJ Pierzynski and Nick Markakis are just filler.  The cavalry is coming but it's not here now.
3. The corollary to #2 -- the players who will lead this team to success are mostly elsewhere. Like on the farm -- or in someone else's farm.
4. It's much more important that the young players learn their craft than perform well now. If Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair are the future, they will have to improve.
5. The Braves are in the market to trade veterans for prospects. The young players on other teams should be of more interest to Braves fans than the veteran flotsam and jetsam on their own roster.

One would expect to hear less about the contributions of Erick Aybar, a 32-year-old shortstop, than about the progress made by Mallex Smith, a 23-year-old center fielder. Indeed, listeners should be salivating for news about the progress made by Minor Leaguer Dansby Swanson, the Braves' shortstop of the future, than about anything Aybar does for the team today.

Broadcasters Haven't Given Up
Alas, the broadcasters, though acknowledging their team's futility, are still struggling to accept the full reality. Last night it reached comic proportions with 25-year-old ace Julio Teheran on the mound. Teheran's record tells you everything you need to know about the performance of him and his team: he's the ace of the staff with a 2.93 ERA, 85 K and just 24 BB. And his record is 2-7.

Aside from openly rooting for a timely Atlanta hit or Teheran strikeout, broadcasters Jim Powell and Don Sutton delved into the prospect of a trade of Teheran. The discussion is mostly nonsense.

Ain't Gonna Happen
The best player on the team isn't going anywhere. He's 25 and is signed through his age 29 season at a nice discount. What can Atlanta possibly get for the ace of their staff that would make them better in 2018, which is management's time horizon?

If they did decide to swap Teheran, it would have to be for an investment in the future. The announcers proposed that the Braves would only accept a "middle of the order bat, 25 or less and under team control" for their pitcher. Well sure, in the same way that I'm not selling my cat except for a winning Powerball jackpot ticket. That is, it ain't gonna happen. No trade partner is sufficiently stupid.

No, You're Not Getting Bryce Harper
Teheran has been worth 8-9 wins against replacement his first three full years -- about three a year. That's a good pitcher. But it's not what the announcers described -- Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado, players worth 5-6 wins a season. No contender is going to trade one asset for another in order to acquire the lesser asset.

Any plausible Teheran deal would have to be present value for future value, the kind Atlanta pulled off in acquiring Swanson from Arizona for Shelby Miller. That can only mean Teheran for a boatload of prospects from the low Minors. 

Hopecasting
So why are Powell and Sutton entertaining such silliness? Because Teheran is their guy. they like him. They have to see him in the clubhouse after the game. So while they feel compelled to discuss the possibility that he's shipped off, they bloat his value beyond objectivity. They are prayercasting and it's not serving their listeners.

Bottom line, it's the right discussion for the third inning of a meaningless mid-June tilt against the woebegone Reds. It's just a pretty silly conclusion. I'll be listening to see if the Braves announcers improve over the course of the lost season too.