Why the Tribe Has To Win in Seven

If you can believe in momentum -- that magic spirit that predicts the past -- I can believe in karma. This is the karma World Series, where good is triumphing over evil and the tortured will have their suffering eased.

If I'm reading the gods right, the Tribe must triumph in seven, not six or five. Or if it's God, the loving and righteous God who gave us baseball in the first place, surely He, in his infinite wisdom, even more infinite than a pitching change, must want a Series this year that comforts the afflicted most, which is a seven-game variety.

It's the least they, or He, could do, considering the abomination that will be visited upon Americans next Tuesday. 

The Cubs and their long, long-suffering supporters have already tasted victory and redemption. They have won their first pennant and competed in their first World Series in 71 years. There is joy in Chicago radiating across the nation even if they succumb in the championship.

The Indians have been here twice before in recent years and come away empty, most notably in 1997 when the taste of victory was on their tongues before it dribbled off the (Joe) Table. For them to find redemption requires a dogpile and a parade, just like LeBron and crew enjoyed.

So karma favors the Tribe, but why seven games? Here's why:

With Cleveland up 3-1, a quick Indians victory would have swept back the ill winds and extended the hardship of the unfortunate. Getting wiped out of the World Series suggests the Cubs remain lovable losers, which, given this roster and its expectations, is no longer lovable. On the other hand, clawing back with their season in the balance  before the home fans in their cathedral in Game 5, and then again in Game 6 on the road, shows this young squad's toughness, resilience and heart. 

Which sets them up perfectly for the moral victory necessary when they lose Game 7 to the plucky, duct-taped Tribe. The upshot: the suffering is completely erased in Cleveland; and a goodly part of the pain is expunged in Chicago where they can feel good about how they fought when they were down. 

Making America great again. Because of baseball. And karma.

Then it's wait 'til next year for real on the North Side, with a team that will once again enjoy favored status. Good karma all around, thank God.

Or gods, whichever the case may be.

Addendum: Well, there's no such thing as karma. And there's still no such thing as momentum.

The Cubs' Chances of Winning the World Series

If you saw the post-game interview with Corey Kluber after last night's Game 4 win for Cleveland, you got a taste of why he's in the running for his second AL Cy Young. Not that a wicked arsenal of pitches isn't useful, but Kluber demonstrated poise, equanimity and perspective that have to help on the mound during a tense three-hour battle.

Behold his response to a question about winning the series following Game 4:

“I think we like the position we’re in, but the task isn’t done yet. We still have one more game to win, and we’re going to show up tomorrow and play with the same sense of urgency we’ve played with until this point. We don’t want to let them build up any momentum and let them get back in the series.”

It's an uphill fight for the Cubs, certainly. If each game is a tossup, the Cubs' 12.5% chance of winning the next three games for the championship is less than the odds that an ignorant troglodyte sociopath will be our nation's next commander-in-chief. So that's pretty sobering.

But the point is, they don't have to win three games; they only have to win the next one. Then their chances double, and the series offers them a day off and a new opportunity.

The World Series isn't anything like over, as Kluber notes. You'd rather be in his position than Chicago's, but a couple of timely hits in the next two games could change all that.

Is an Outfield Bobble Worth 34 Home Runs?

There's talk today that Indians manager Terry Francona wants to get Carlos Santana's bat into the DH-less lineup and so will play him in left field in Game 3 tonight.

Not!

It's not Santana's bat that gets into the game by virtue of his placement in left field. It's Mike Napoli's.

You see, Santana is no worse a first baseman than Napoli, which is damning with the faintest of praise. Neither of these guys is Keith Hernandez. But Santana's a better hitter, and so without a DH Napoli would have sat and Santana would have manned the cold corner.

But the pair crushed 68 home runs this season, something that might be useful on a windy night in the Friendly Confines.

So Santana and Napoli will certainly get six trips to the plate tonight, probably eight and maybe more.

In exchange, there might (or might not) be a ball or two that challenges Santana in left field, one that Brandon Guyer or Coco Crisp might have corralled, or cut off, or played better in some other way.

From Francona's standpoint, it's not much of a tradeoff. You put the bat in the game every time.

Cubs, Wait 'Til Next Year

It's the most satisfying World Series match-up I can remember.

I loved the Angels-Giants of '02, a pair of franchises that had not won a championship in their cities.  White Sox-Astros of '05 thrilled because Houston had never seen a dogpile and the South Siders had last stood atop the baseball world in 1917.

Of course, the ending of the curse in Boston in '04 was special, mostly because of the ALCS comeback against the hated Yankees. But that World Series was something of an anti-climax.

Last year's Royals-Mets Series gave us a pair of distinct styles, not to mention long-suffering fan bases. That my team prevailed was extra special.

With the Cubs and Indians, what's exciting is not just that one fan base or the other will revel in the first World Championship of its lifetime. It also feels like the two best teams are competing for the title. The Cubs won eight more games than everyone else despite cruising home the last third of the season.

In the AL, the three division champs  won roughly the same number of games, but the metrics suggested the Rangers were something of a fluke. Boston and Cleveland were the contenders for best AL squad, and despite a pitching staff depleted by unfortunate injuries, the Tribe dominated the division series between them before dispatching Toronto with relative ease.

In the Words of Tom Hanks, Go Tribe!
And now, despite the 108-year wait for the Cubs, I hope Cleveland takes the title. Why? Because the Cubs, with their immense youth, talent and deep pockets, really can wait 'til next year. Their team stays intact, Kyle Schwarber returns and they can always add a free agent -- if they can find a weakness. How much worse will it be for North Side fans if their nine breaks a 109- or 110-year old curse?

The Indians, on the other hand, have caught lightning in a bottle. Their future is much more murky.  Youngsters Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin and Jose Ramirez have shocked us with their play, but can they keep it up? What if their two injured starters aren't the same after this year?They can't get by on a rotation of Cory Kluber and a Bunch of Goobers. It just feels like a shakier foundation there.

Cleveland should be formidable next year, regardless, but there is so much more uncertainty with them. So I'd like to see them win the World Series in a dramatic seventh game, and then watch the Cubs return next season to take the title.

At least that's how it would happen if I were writing the screenplay.

Imagining Cubs Vs. Indians

Let your mind consider the delicious possibility of Indians vs. Cubs.

• The 108-year curse vs. the 68-year drought. To anyone under 75, it's the same thing.

• Terry Francona vs. Theo Epstein. The Hall-bound strategist vs. The Hall-bound strategist. The battle of the 86-year-old '04 curse killers.

• Yankee trade deadliner Aroldis Chapman vs. Yankee trade deadliner Andrew Miller.

• The pitiful fans of the Browns vs. the pitiful fans of the Bears.

• The city of Jordan's Bulls vs. the city of LeBron's Cavs.

•  The team of destiny vs. the team no one expected.

Dodgers, nothing personal, but please get out of the way.

Great World Series Matchups I'd Like to See

For years, baseball fans fantasized about a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. It would be the Futility Series -- 86 years for one fan base and 100+ years for the other since the last championship.

Sadly, David Ortiz and his band of self-styled morons shot that to pieces in 2004 and then again in 2007 and 2013. Boston is no longer the land of near misses but the annoying home of multi-sport titles. 

That is no longer the World Series I want to see, especially if the band from Boston were to emerge victorious.My main criterion for rooting, if I don't have a horse in the field, is to cheer for the longest-suffering.

So for me, the marquee match-up now is Chicago vs. Cleveland. The Indians have not won the World Series in nearly 70 years, which means whichever team would emerge from that series would be quenching a multi-generational thirst. Moreover, like the Cubs, the Indians have been relentlessly pathetic during the long drought.

In truth, the Cubs against anyone is the dream World Series this year, but wouldn't the drama be heightened if they faced Texas, which has never won a World Series, than Baltimore, which has gone 33 years without a title, but has plenty to admire from its past? I'd say, at least a little.

My next favorite match-up is the Rangers and Nationals, two teams that have never won a World Series. Texas is the former Washington Senators, so some old-timers could admire that.  A Texas-San Francisco tilt would reprise the 2010 World Series, but the excitement would depend on the Rangers exacting revenge. I'm plenty tired of the Giants. Give some other fan base a chance.

How about the Nationals and Orioles in a Beltway Battle? I'd find that intriguing and so would much of the nation's capital, but would the rest of the country care? Padre fans, wanna weigh in on that one? Either one of you?

If the Blue Jays and Nationals squared off we would be pitting Canada's only team against Canada's former team, as Washington emigrated from Montreal. I wonder if any Expo fans now root for the Nats.

How about a 30th anniversary edition of the Mets and Red Sox, with Mookie Wilson throwing out the first pitch? Bill Buckner could set up as backstop and let it roll between his legs.

The Amazing Mets of 2016 taking on the Orioles -- would that wake the echoes of 1969 at all? I think we're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now.

The truth is that any World Series not involving the Giants or Red Sox would pit two long-starved fan bases. Among the Mets, Nats, Dodgers, Cubs, O's, Jays, Tribe and Rangers, the most recent champion is the 1993 Blue Jays, 23 years ago. That's a full generation of fans who have never seen their team win. Can you imagine Vin Scully in the Fox booth calling the ninth inning of game 7 with the Dodgers playing? It would be like going to heaven without dying.

And that said, a Red Sox appearance would place Big Papi on the big stage one more time, following the greatest retirement season in horsehide history. I'd like to see him take his hacks against Clayton Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of this generation.

Okay, let's get it started. My mouth is watering.

Stop Calling Them Favorites!

In a post I wrote earlier this week, I almost described the Chicago Cubs as "World Series favorites." I quickly edited myself because, as experience has taught us in the Wild Card era, there is no such thing.

It's true that the Cubs are almost certain playoff participants, which seems to be the one and only corollary with champion. Every team that has won the World Series has first earned a playoff spot.

Beyond that, there are no guarantees, or even good bets. Consider this:

Does the best team win? Since 2010, only three of the 12 teams with their league's best record earned a World Series berth.
Does the team with the best top two starters win? This old wives tale has gained currency, but there is nothing backing it. The Royals won the pennant the last two years without an ace. The Dodgers with Kershaw and Greinke made exactly zero World Series. The Red Sox anchored by Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz? won the 2014 Series over the Cardinals' tandem of Adam Wainwright and ... Shelby Miller? And so on.
Does a shutdown bullpen win the Series? Sure, that worked for the Royals, but every contender has a great arm at the back of the pen. The 2014 World Champion Giants' closer, Sergio Romo, sported a 3.72 ERA and lost his job the following season.
Does the hottest team win the pennant?  Lots of research on that one: nope, no correlation whatsoever. Indeed, the 2006 Series pitted a stumbling 83-win Cardinals against a Detroit squad that finished 12-17 in the season's final month.
What role does chance play? Now you're talking. The playoffs are a lottery.

On the other hand, the better your team, the better you like your chances. You can at least avoid the play-in game and get that tiny home field advantage. Two great starters is a real asset. And you'd rather have a reliable bullpen than not. So in that sense, the Cubs have as good a chance as anyone who makes the playoffs.

Just not any better.