When a kid gets a shiny new toy he always wanted for Christmas, it's not surprising that he plays with it endlessly. And when it ceases to work, it's not surprising that he puts it away.
The seamheads turned out shiny new projection toys in the 2000s variously called PECOTA, Steamer, ZiPS, Marcel, FANS and Oliver, depending on whose proprietary system you prefer. (For example, Baseball Prospectus created PECOTA, Fangraphs introduced ZiPS and Tom Tango developed Marcel.) They all compare ballplayers of today to their counterparts in history to determine what awaits the current crop in the coming year. All that is then compiled into team projections.
These toys have some value for a couple of reasons: they are objective and they have built into them some simple rules that humans fail to recognize or choose to ignore when analyzing player performance. Beyond that, though, they offer little insight. Most significantly, they don't know anything about the people who play the game. They are blind to who learned a new pitch, is struggling through a wrenching divorce, picked up a hitch in his swing or is finally healthy.
As a result, they can never tell us who will suddenly break out, Jose Bautista style, or who will Dontrelle Willis all over himself. None of them could pinpoint the 2014 demise of the Red Sox or the Orioles' pre-eminence. And yet the sabermetric world talks about these tools as if they're atom splitters.
So, for example, Steamer predicts the top 10 players by WAR next year are Mike Trout, Andrew McCutcheon, Giancarlo Stanton, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and Paul Goldschmidt. (Cano, Machado and Puig are right behind.) Well, duh. right? (Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are its top pitchers. Who knew?)
It says Joey Votto and Bryce Harper are stars with injury risks. You don't say. It projects Chris Davis bouncing about halfway back to 2013 with a .242 batting average and 30 home runs. About what you'd predict. It sees Justin Verlander returning to about league average pitching. And it's not really buying Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. Well, who outside of the outer boroughs is?
So the toys have some entertainment value, but the saber community plays with them as if they're iPads. They quote chapter and verse on players, particularly when analyzing trades and signings. The truth is, exercise a few simple guiding principles, like Warren Buffet investor tips, and you too can lord over the average baseball fan.
And be right 60% of the time.
In subsequent posts, we'll discuss those principles, examine some interesting player projections and the swim among the team projections. (Spoiler alert: the Phillies will suck.)
Showing posts with label fans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fans. Show all posts
07 February 2015
05 July 2013
Weighing In On Yasiel Puig
It's understandable why Jonathan Papelbon and Bruce Bochy feel indignant about Dodger phenom Yasiel Puig being considered for the All-Star game after just 116 plate appearances over 28 games. If Puig is selected for the game he'll displace one of their compadres who has toiled for years in pro ball awaiting his chance to take the field in the Mid-Summer Classic.
(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.)
Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio.
Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.
The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.
Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.
Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.
In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?
(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.)
Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio.
Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.
The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.
Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.
Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.
In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?
05 July 2009
Huzzah for the Hoi Polloi
The fans have done it again. Give the great baseball unwashed an opportunity to stuff the All-Star ballot box with their favorite hometown representatives and what do they do? They carefully consider who's having the best year and cast their votes accordingly.
In fact, the fans generally do a better job than the managers of picking the most deserving players. Managers construct safe rosters stuffed fat with moundsman, lest they soil the game again by running out of pitchers. Of course, fans and managers alike show more fidelity to the game than the moronic "every team" rule. It forced Rays manager Joe Maddon to choose Andrew Bailey of the A's for his pitching staff. Bailey has thrown a grand total of 47 innings of Major League ball in his entire life and could be back in the minors by the time the A's play game 162 this year.
Beyond that, it's really hard to find much fault. The fans laid one egg in each league -- with Josh Hamilton in the AL and with Yadier Molina over Brian McCann in the NL. Aside from that, kudos to the masses.
The two squads suffer from rosters of 13 pitchers each. Thirteen! It cost Matt Kemp his outfield spot in the NL and either Ian Kinsler at second in the AL.
I'm casting my 33rd man vote for Kemp over Mark Reynolds of Arizona and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants. He's posted big numbers in a pitchers park, unlike Reynolds, and has demonstrated during his career that he can keep this up all season, unlike Sandoval.
In the AL, Kinsler has tailed off a bit lately, but I've selected him over Toronto DH Adam Lind and Tigers cornerman Brandon Inge. Kinsler has a track record of success, which Lind and Inge don't have, and his .833 OPS (largely on the basis of 19 homers) is more impressive for a second baseman than Lind's .937 OPS, particularly considering Lind doesn't play the field.
That there are myriad players having impressive seasons for whom there is no room on the rosters helps maintain the value of the All-Star designation. On the other hand, several of the selected newbies -- particularly relievers -- will regress to ordinary over the second half. It's the small downside of an All-Star game that serves the sport so well as a moment of pause and reflection on what another great year we're having.
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In fact, the fans generally do a better job than the managers of picking the most deserving players. Managers construct safe rosters stuffed fat with moundsman, lest they soil the game again by running out of pitchers. Of course, fans and managers alike show more fidelity to the game than the moronic "every team" rule. It forced Rays manager Joe Maddon to choose Andrew Bailey of the A's for his pitching staff. Bailey has thrown a grand total of 47 innings of Major League ball in his entire life and could be back in the minors by the time the A's play game 162 this year.
Beyond that, it's really hard to find much fault. The fans laid one egg in each league -- with Josh Hamilton in the AL and with Yadier Molina over Brian McCann in the NL. Aside from that, kudos to the masses.
The two squads suffer from rosters of 13 pitchers each. Thirteen! It cost Matt Kemp his outfield spot in the NL and either Ian Kinsler at second in the AL.
I'm casting my 33rd man vote for Kemp over Mark Reynolds of Arizona and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants. He's posted big numbers in a pitchers park, unlike Reynolds, and has demonstrated during his career that he can keep this up all season, unlike Sandoval.
In the AL, Kinsler has tailed off a bit lately, but I've selected him over Toronto DH Adam Lind and Tigers cornerman Brandon Inge. Kinsler has a track record of success, which Lind and Inge don't have, and his .833 OPS (largely on the basis of 19 homers) is more impressive for a second baseman than Lind's .937 OPS, particularly considering Lind doesn't play the field.
That there are myriad players having impressive seasons for whom there is no room on the rosters helps maintain the value of the All-Star designation. On the other hand, several of the selected newbies -- particularly relievers -- will regress to ordinary over the second half. It's the small downside of an All-Star game that serves the sport so well as a moment of pause and reflection on what another great year we're having.
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