After exercising my first 70 (of 105) All-Star franchises, I initiated a thought experiment about who would eventually wind up in Cincinnati and, more to the point, who wouldn't. Who would be the best player left off the All-Star roster?
It didn't take long before a name popped so far out it couldn't be ignored. The research ended there, less exhaustive than exhausted, so take it with an extra grain of salt.
It appears that only injury or a bizarre desire on the manager's part to select five first baseman will punch Freddie Freeman's Mid-Summer Classic ticket in 2015. Freeman is having a fine season -- a .327 True Average, the best of his career, along with solid defense at the cold corner. It doesn't appear that will suffice.
Ahead of Freeman are a pair of MVP candidates, the Dbacks' Paul Goldschmidt and Cubs' Anthony Rizzo, and two veteran stars, the Reds' Joey Votto and Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez. The quartet rank second, third, ninth and tenth in OPS in the NL this year. With Votto playing at home, he's a nearly sure bet to be selected, while Gonzalez's offensive-subduing home field and Gold Glove credentials argue for him.
That leaves Freeman fifth for three -- maybe four at most -- spots on the All-Star roster.
In a way, it's a microcosm of Freeman's career. A milquetoast guy on a middling team, Freeman has demonstrated broad excellence (a lifetime .304 TAv) but has rarely stood out. He's hit .300+ once and knocked in 100 runs once in his five-year career. He's never bopped more than 23 homers, stolen bases or claimed many Web gem moments. He's a steady-Eddie kind of player, the type who rarely earns much notice.
So he appears to be the best player who won't make this year's All-Star team. Of course, that might change once my research moves beyond first base.
Addendum: Another reason Freeman might not make the All-Star team is that he's now on the shelf with an injury. I don't think it was true when I wrote this, but if it was, it was a new development that hadn't filtered down to me yet.
Showing posts with label All-Star selection. Show all posts
Showing posts with label All-Star selection. Show all posts
05 July 2013
Weighing In On Yasiel Puig
It's understandable why Jonathan Papelbon and Bruce Bochy feel indignant about Dodger phenom Yasiel Puig being considered for the All-Star game after just 116 plate appearances over 28 games. If Puig is selected for the game he'll displace one of their compadres who has toiled for years in pro ball awaiting his chance to take the field in the Mid-Summer Classic.
(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.)
Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio.
Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.
The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.
Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.
Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.
In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?
(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.)
Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio.
Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.
The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.
Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.
Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.
In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?
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