Runs, Hits and Errors: The Temple of Doom

Yeah, I know. We're running out of headline ideas for this series, which checks the rearview mirror to see if 2011 brain drizzlings produced as promised. Today we examine the third quarter of 2011.

Ryan Voglesong produced exactly as promised in this post of July 5. The 34-year-old refugee of the Japanese leagues claimed an All-Star berth with a 6-1, 2.13 start to the season. I noted that Lady Luck was driving that train and would soon depart. Sure enough, Vogelsong went 7-6, 3.26, almost entirely because his luck-fattened BABIP of .262 bounced back to a more normal.309 in the second half.

The same post touted Doug Fister's All-Star quality despite a 3-9, 3.02 first half in Seattle. A deadline trade to the Tigers unleashed the gods of fortune on Fister, morphing his 3-12, 3.33 for the Mariners into 8-1, 1.79 in Detroit.

That kind of improvement was more than a good luck injection. True, the obscenity of poor run support in Seattle turned into a windfall in Detroit, batters hit just .245 on balls in play there and a bevy of unearned runs in the second half trimmed a 2.44 RA into a spiffier-looking ERA. But the 27-year-old righty also stopped issuing free passes (just five in 70 innings) and fanned more batters (from 5.5 to 7.3 per nine innings). It's fair to say that the real Fister was more like the 3.33 ERA of the first half and the 8-1 won-loss record of the second half.

This mid-summer review dismissed the Pirates' quick start, which had left them a game out of the division lead as the last 70 games loomed. It also cautioned anyone awaiting a mid-season acquisition in exchange for prospects not to hold their breath. Pirate brass vindicated this assertion by sticking with the plan to develop youngsters for contention in 2012 and beyond. Pirate players added their vindication -- going 18-38 in August and September and landing 23 games behind the Brewers.

The Pirates ended with bottom-three hitting and below average pitching, but only three of 19 players with 100+ at bats were over 30. Hurlers over 30 accounted for 34 of the staff's 1,449 innings. The Bucs are the team of the future. The subject of an upcoming post is, it's time for the future to arrive.

With 20-20 hindsight, what do you make of this post? It correctly observed that the Braves and Red Sox weren't competing with the Phils and Yanks respectively, but with whoever might be next in the Wild Card parade. It incorrectly observed that the Wild Card race was all but concluded. Well, their extraordinary collapses were simultaneous lightning strikes, so I'm cutting myself some slack on that one. The underlying point remains.

Dan Uggla provided some fodder for discussion here, after a first half that featured slugging but no hitting and a miniscule BABIP. Better luck gave him a .296/.379/.569 line in the second half. We proposed that he'd end the year with a .227 batting average. It finished at .233. You go, Dan! Another example of perspective not possible with the antiquated tools used by Fox national baseball coverage, your local team broadcast, and Associated Press mid-season recap or a former athlete doing commentary on ESPN.

The third quarter was a good one for observations about the game. Next week we revisit Q4

They're Playing His Vogelsong

Giants' manager Bruce Bochy has exercised his All-Star prerogative to add Giant starter Ryan Vogelsong to the game's pitching roster. At 6-1, 2.13, Vogelsong looks like a solid choice. But dig a little deeper and it seems Bochy might be looking silly by year's end.

Certainly no one, not even his optimistic manager, could have predicted success for the 34-year-old righty coming into the season. His 10-22, 5.38 record over parts of six major league seasons wrapped around a three-year stint in Japan rarely correlates to stardom. Vogelsong seems to have tightened his command and sharpened his fastball, but other factors weigh more heavily in his success.

First, the 6'4" Pennsylvanian has shared the mound with serendipity. His BABIP-against is an unsustainable .256 and a fifth of the runs against him have been deemed unearned. Account for those factors and Vogelsong's SIERA -- the ERA his pitching actually deserves -- is 3.68. That's quite a spread.

Add to that more shouts of "regression!" from the peanut gallery. He pitches in a low-offense ballpark that has jumped on the Vogelsong bandwagon with both feet. His ERA is 2.4 runs higher outside of Telephone Company Field. His last two starts also suggest the shark repellent may be wearing off. In those two turns, he's lasted just 11.2 innings, surrendering nine runs and eight walks while fanning 11.

Contrast this with the Unlucky Mariner, Doug Fister. The 27-year-old northpaw is a miserable 3-9 in front of Seattle's wet newspaper offense. In the nine starts in which Fister has relinquished two or fewer runs, he's a mere 2-2. In the five games in which the opposition has scored four or five runs (only one of those starts lasted less than seven frames) he's 0-5. That's what happens in front of teammates who "hit" .226/.294/.336. (The starting lineup features one above-average hitter - first baseman Justin Smoak. Three starters are below 50% of average.)

Fister's 3-1 K-BB ratio, low home run rate (.45 HRs per nine innings) and sustainable BABIP (.290) all testify to the veracity of his 3.02 ERA. Repeating that won't get him to .500 with a lineup full of glove-first second-basemen, but it should look a lot better.

In other words, a second-half-only All-Star team is a lot more likely to include Doug Fister than Ryan Vogelsong. The 3-9 pitcher has out-performed the 6-1 pitcher; we're just not trained to notice it.

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