Was Jose Fernandez Headed for the Hall?

You've no doubt heard by now that Marlins' phenom Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident Sunday at the tender age of 24. The All-Star pitcher had a joie de vivre that lit up ballgames almost as much as his mid-90s fastball.

I have nothing to add to the touching tributes and heartfelt expressions of grief from the team and others.

I just have two observations that should be understood as mere fly's eyelashes on the larger story.

Euphemisms Need to Pass Away
First, many media references to Fernandez's death mention his "passing away." Jose Fernandez did not pass away. Life did not ebb out of him as he lay comatose in his bed. He was killed instantly in a high-speed crash against a pile of rocks. Let's stop using euphemisms about the death of a young man.

Second, Fernandez was an amazing talent. Before he even entered the Bigs at 21, he endured a Cuban defection story familiar in its contours if not exactly in its details. The story included jumping out of a boat and into shark-infested waters to save his mother.

On the diamond, he was the cold-blooded killer. In his four years -- two shortened seasons wrapped around TJ surgery -- he earned head-shaking numbers -- 38-17, 2.58 and 589 strikeouts in 471 innings. In his only full season he was voted Rookie of the Year and finished third in the Cy Young voting. This year he was an All-Star and was certain to attract Cy Young support.

Was He Headed for the Hall?
All of which had me wondering -- how much of a Hall of Fame track was Fernandez on? Do pitchers who start like him finish in Cooperstown? He was dazzling and dominating, of course, but he also brought the heat using an elbow held together by surgeon's glue and a hip flexor. The answer floored me.

For some perspective, I checked Baseball Prospectus's Active Player HOF Draft. Two wags picked players from current rosters to compile a team with the most Hall of Famers. (This contest will take years to settle.) You can guess most of the names, with Pujols, Suzuki, Beltre, Ortiz, Cabrera and Trout at the top. Fernandez was the 32nd pick, which means he is a borderline case, at least according to a duo of baseball writers. Past patterns suggest that roughly 30 players today will eventually enter the Hall.

By another measure, though, he's not close. Not one of Fernandez's closest comparables accomplished much of anything, though Jacob deGrom might someday. After him, the names are a who's who -- I mean really, who? -- Dick Hughes, Butch Wensloff, Mark Fidrych, Mark Prior and a slew of 19th century hurlers. Dick Hughes wowed the NL in 1967 with a 16-6, 2.67 performance in 221 innings at age 27 to finish second in the Rookie of the Year race. He threw 86 innings the rest of his career.

The middle two years shredded by ligament replacement are the wild card for Fernandez. If it was just a bump in the road, he was headed for enshrinement. If it was a harbinger of future issues, then Fernandez was the next Mark Prior.

Sadly, it's all moot now.

Prior and Wood, If Only They Could

In 1998, "Kerry Wood" was an exclamation. After retiring today, "Kerry Wood" is a warning.

The first-round pick with the big body and the triple-digit heater led Chicago to the playoffs with a 13-6, 3.40, 233-strikeout, Rookie of the Year performance in '98. In his fifth start, he electrified the baseball world with a one-hit, no-walk, 20-strikeout shutout of the Astros, perhaps the greatest pitching effort ever. (The one safety was an infield dribbler by Craig Biggio.)

Before the season ended, Wood was cooling his sore elbow. One playoff start later his ulnar collateral ligament was toast and Tommy John surgery awaited, shelving him for the '99 season. It foreshadowed his entire, snakebit, career

The Cubs rushed him back 12 months later and Wood scuffled in 2000, but regained form in 2001 with 174 innings of 12-6, 3.36 and 217 strikeouts. He whiffed 217 more in '02 and 266 in '03, topping 200 innings each season. At that point, Wood had compiled an impressive 59-41, 3.62 record with 1065 Ks in 903 frames of work.

Then, Wood turned to balsa. He frayed his rotator cuff and missed significant time over the next three seasons, including all but four starts in '06. By '07 Wood was a reliever, and not the kind who wakes the echoes of Wilhelm, Fingers or Rivera. An exceptional '08 gave way to mundanity out of the pen and yesterday, having returned to the Cubs for his valedictory, he gave way after delivering the lineup card and facing one batter -- striking out Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox.

Wood departs at age 35 with an 86-75, 3.67 record and 63 saves. He made two All-Star games and never led the league in anything after age 26, certainly not the resume that Cubs fans dreamed about 14 years ago when he was baffling NL batters.

Although they enjoyed rather little overlap, Wood will forever be paired with fellow flameout Mark Prior. Also a top-five draft pick, Prior exploded on the scene in '02 and dominated in '03, with an 18-6, 2.43 line and 245 strikeouts in the near-pennant season, a performance that earned him a third-place finish in the Cy Young voting. But the wheels came off in '04, as injuries put Prior and Wood in pitching limbo simultaneously.

Prior threw just 229 more Major League innings in his career, which ended* at age 26 with a 42-29, 3.51 tally. There is no doubt that had Prior been able to stay healthy, he could have been one of the greats. (Extrapolate his truncated performance over 15 full seasons and you get a 200-win pitcher with an ERA 24% better than average in a hitters' park and more strikeouts than innings.) But as they say, if the queen had testicles, she'd be king.

*Prior attempted a reboot in 2010 and has tossed around the minors since. He is currently in extended Spring Training for the Red Sox. This requiem may be premature, but that's not the way to bet. More likely, Prior and Wood are memories, a cautionary tale for all those who would project past performance into the future. Dwight Gooden, Dontrelle Willis, Mark Fidrych and a long parade of others send their regards.

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