Was Jose Fernandez Headed for the Hall?

You've no doubt heard by now that Marlins' phenom Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident Sunday at the tender age of 24. The All-Star pitcher had a joie de vivre that lit up ballgames almost as much as his mid-90s fastball.

I have nothing to add to the touching tributes and heartfelt expressions of grief from the team and others.

I just have two observations that should be understood as mere fly's eyelashes on the larger story.

Euphemisms Need to Pass Away
First, many media references to Fernandez's death mention his "passing away." Jose Fernandez did not pass away. Life did not ebb out of him as he lay comatose in his bed. He was killed instantly in a high-speed crash against a pile of rocks. Let's stop using euphemisms about the death of a young man.

Second, Fernandez was an amazing talent. Before he even entered the Bigs at 21, he endured a Cuban defection story familiar in its contours if not exactly in its details. The story included jumping out of a boat and into shark-infested waters to save his mother.

On the diamond, he was the cold-blooded killer. In his four years -- two shortened seasons wrapped around TJ surgery -- he earned head-shaking numbers -- 38-17, 2.58 and 589 strikeouts in 471 innings. In his only full season he was voted Rookie of the Year and finished third in the Cy Young voting. This year he was an All-Star and was certain to attract Cy Young support.

Was He Headed for the Hall?
All of which had me wondering -- how much of a Hall of Fame track was Fernandez on? Do pitchers who start like him finish in Cooperstown? He was dazzling and dominating, of course, but he also brought the heat using an elbow held together by surgeon's glue and a hip flexor. The answer floored me.

For some perspective, I checked Baseball Prospectus's Active Player HOF Draft. Two wags picked players from current rosters to compile a team with the most Hall of Famers. (This contest will take years to settle.) You can guess most of the names, with Pujols, Suzuki, Beltre, Ortiz, Cabrera and Trout at the top. Fernandez was the 32nd pick, which means he is a borderline case, at least according to a duo of baseball writers. Past patterns suggest that roughly 30 players today will eventually enter the Hall.

By another measure, though, he's not close. Not one of Fernandez's closest comparables accomplished much of anything, though Jacob deGrom might someday. After him, the names are a who's who -- I mean really, who? -- Dick Hughes, Butch Wensloff, Mark Fidrych, Mark Prior and a slew of 19th century hurlers. Dick Hughes wowed the NL in 1967 with a 16-6, 2.67 performance in 221 innings at age 27 to finish second in the Rookie of the Year race. He threw 86 innings the rest of his career.

The middle two years shredded by ligament replacement are the wild card for Fernandez. If it was just a bump in the road, he was headed for enshrinement. If it was a harbinger of future issues, then Fernandez was the next Mark Prior.

Sadly, it's all moot now.

The Uncomfortable Case of Jose Fernandez

After stifling the Braves for seven innings and inciting a near-riot for showboating during his home run trot, Miami's phenom pitcher Jose Fernandez shut it down for the season. Or rather, the Marlins ended his 2013 rookie campaign at the 173-inning mark.

Team brass has taken a familiar approach with the 21-year-old following his call-up from Single-A in the final nub of last season. They limited his pitch count by game (he never topped 110 pitches) and his total innings by season.

And nary a peep was heard.

The reaction could hardly have been more dissonant when the Washington Nationals last year wove the same clothes out of the fabric of their young phenom, Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg, at 22, was coming off TJ surgery that had limited him to 44 innings at all levels of baseball in 2011 after 123 frames the previous year split between the Minors and the Majors.

Fernandez accumulated 134 innings on the farm last season. Like Strasburg, he threw roughly an extra 40 innings this year, but without the added stressor of a rebuilt elbow tendon.

The outcry last September seemed to rest on the Nationals' title hopes after securing the best record in baseball. It reached fever pitch when Washington gakked up Game 5 to the Cardinals in the Division Series. Attributing that to the absence of Strasburg is pretty thin gruel, but then baseball fans and logic rarely cohabitate.

Because the team has played a disappointing game of ping-pong with .500 in 2013, few have noticed that the Nationals' can feel vindicated about their decision. Despite a meaningless 7-9 record, he's replicated his spectacular 2012 season, except over more innings. (Again, cause and effect are difficult to pin down; it's possible Stras would have continued his mastery without the benching.) 


Perhaps that's what the Marlins had in mind when they emulated Washington and closed the book on Fernandez's season. His absence won't be conspicuous during the playoffs or even during any meaningful games, so no one is in a tizzy. Besides, if all of Miami's baseball fans raised their voices simultaneously in ire they wouldn't make a whole lot of noise.