Not A Dilemma At All

As everyone in baseball has noted, Mets skipper Jerry Manuel has a dilemma on his hands with the return of Carlos Beltran after the All-Star break. He'll have four fine outfielders for only three spots. Inserting Beltran means someone who has lit it up will have to sit.

It's a nice dilemma, except for one thing: it's no dilemma at all.

Most of the discussion around Beltran's return from knee injury concerns his centerfield replacement, Angel Pagan. Pagan has been the Mets' second best hitter, behind David Wright, and contributes other fine attributes, like 19 steals in 24 attempts and solid defense in a difficult defensive position. Pagan's laudable.304/.364/.457 performance at the plate looks a lot like last year's breakout season, which suggests the 29-year-old switch hitter is the real thing.

Another real thing is Jason Bay, despite a relative dearth of long balls.  He's smacked 30+ out four times in his career and .279/.375/.512 career line, so it's not like Manuel is lifting him and his big contract to keep Angel Pagan in the game.

Jeff Francoeur, on the other hand, is very much NOT the real thing. He is Broke-A-Cola. He is the poster boy for sabermetric disembowelment. Francoeur is everything showy that doesn't matter and a zero in the shadowy parts of the game that actually affect the score. Manuel ought to have yanked him from the lineup before Beltran recovered, much less once Beltran is ready to patrol center.

Wait a second, you say. He hits for power and sometimes average, runs well and swipes bases, and has a rifle in right field. He's a studly young buck and by all accounts a good guy. What could be bad about that? I hear he like long walks on the beach and supports the fight against child abuse too.

Let's take a look at "Frenchy's" resume. (You know, some baseball nicknames are pure genius -- the Big Unit and the Big Hurt come to mind -- while others are so inane and soulless they should be banned. I just used one of those. Never again, I promise.) Though Francoeur has batted ..283 in 625 plate appearances since joining the Mets, he's trotted to first a grand total of 30 times. It's harder to walk him than Ron Kovic. His OBP of .322 just downright stinks, and it's an improvement over his lifetime rate.

Francoeur has bopped 18 homers and 34 doubles in that time, which keeps you in the lineup if your OBP is .350, or if you're a second baseman. And while he's got a whipsaw right arm, his defense is certainly not the equal of either the Beltran who got hurt or of Pagan. Over the last three years, Francoeur has been exactly a replacement-level outfielder at the plate. However, he's a fine pinch runner and a late inning defensive replacement for Bay, if you think that's an upgrade.

Fox color analyst Kevin Millar observed about Francoeur that "this guy is a ballplayer." It's true: you take one look at him play and you think he's got it all. But today's analyst community has managed to get beyond the muscles and the sweet swings to measure the abilities that really contribute to success, and plate discipline is at the top of the list. His complete lack of it is Jeff Francoeur's downfall. Jerry, this is an easy call: sit him.

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Worse Prospects Than Chief Seattle

Pity poor Jack Zduriencik. It's bad enough no one outside Wroclaw (pronounced: Vrots-waff) can identify him correctly within three consonants. The Seattle Mariners GM now has the unenviable task of trying to build a contender against an improving division without the minor benefit of cash or talent.

Last year when the M's picked up Eric Bedard and his medical chart, I questioned whether they had enough lumber to contend even with him. Ha! This team hasn't even a sapling.

The peak of Marinerdom is an aging Ichiro, who, without the support of power or walks, is fast approaching offensive irrelevance. Other than his base stealing proficiency, he's an empty .310 hitter.

Oh, but wait, Raul Ibanez is a nice player. Yup, and for someone else in 2009. He's a free agent, and unless he loves coffee, rain and the Space Needle, he'll skedaddle to a team that has a snowball's chance in hell to contend, like anyone else in the Majors.

After that, there's Adrian Beltre, a free agent after '09, Jose Lopez, a second-baseman with one good year tucked in his belt, and a sucking black hole on offense. Besides these four, the entire rest of the team was 30 runs worse than a team of Triple-A players. Put another way, Mets back-up outfielder Angel Pagan, who batted .275 with no homers and 12 RBI in 105 plate appearances, was alone worth three more wins to his team, than the entire Mariners roster combined outside the aforementioned quartet.

Seattle might have a reasonable rotation next year. And it might not. Felix Hernandez should continue to excel. Jarrod Washburn may or may not defy predictions that he's over like Hootie and the Blowfish. Bedard might make more than 15 starts. And Carlos Silva might suddenly learn how to miss bats, but that would be counting on a guy with a 6.46 ERA and four strikeouts a game in '08.

The Mariners could decide to convert effective relievers like Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow into starters, but that would deplete the only asset the team has. Still, given the team's utter hopelessness, it's probably worth the risk.

Here's the real problem: former GM Bill Bavasi sunk $80 million into this pile of flotsam and jetsam, leaving Zduriencik with little room to maneuver. He could swap out Beltre and Washburn for some young players and hope the largely barren farm sprouts some tasty treats real fast. But it's looking as if the long, dreary winter in Seattle will last all the way through next Fall.