Alex Rodriguez's Baseball Eulogy

And so, one of the most spectacular, infamous, intriguing, exasperating baseball careers comes to a close exactly the opposite of how you would expect. It fizzles to an ending without a conclusion.

Unless he perks up for his last game, Alex Rodriguez's last RBI will come on an 0-4 day in which he grounded out weakly with the bases loaded. Contrast that with Derek Jeter's last at bat. Contrasting with Derek Jeter will always be ARod's fate, which is why he will always be remembered as both a phenomenon and tragedy.

Today, Alex Rodriguez will play his last game, a shadow of a shell of anything he ever was on the diamond. A sub-Mendoza DH over the last calendar year, ARod may have been removed from the field by the Yankees, but it's hardly as if they had a choice. He has nothing to offer them but the lost opportunity of exposing a prospect to MLB pitching.

There is talk of ARod playing elsewhere to bolster attendance, but this seems like nonsense. The hometown Marlins? An NL team in a playoff race? Fans are not going to pay for the possibility that ARod might pinch hit. 

Sure, Rodriguez could carry on to reach 700 home runs, something only three others have ever done. But it is clear the tank is empty. It could take more than the 48 games remaining for him to reach the mark, during which time he would be dragging down all his other accomplishments.

So while his career droops to an anti-climax, let's just remind ourselves what an all-time great, inner-circle Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez was:

• He won the batting title, hitting .358/.414/.631 at age 20.
• He hit 33 homers the year he turned 40.
• He led his league in HR five times, in runs scored five times and in slugging four times.
• He topped 1.000 OPS six times.
• He slugged 150 HR for three different teams, which no one else has done.
• He slugged 250 HR from two different positions, which no one else has done.
• He slammed 696 HR and stole 329 bases. Only Barry Bonds has more of both.
• His 435 home runs was the most in the 2000s.
• He hit 35+ home runs for 11 straight seasons.
• He topped 8 WAR -- the benchmark for an MVP season -- in 8 different seasons.
• He dragged the Yankees to the playoffs almost singlehandedly in 2007, hitting .314-54-156 and leading the league with a 1.096 OPS -- one of his three MVP seasons.
• He batted .365/.456/.801 in the 2009 playoffs, leading the Yankees to their last World Series title.
• He played shortstop! Shortstop! When you think of all the other modern all-time great offensive players -- Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr. -- they all played the outfield, not the most important defensive position behind the pitcher.

Alex Rodriguez will evidently begin employing his prodigious coaching and speaking talents going forward, and it's a good bet he will perform admirably and become an ambassador for the game he once sued. Let's hope he finds some peace in his life now that he's no longer chasing expectations on the field. If he does, he might soften some hearts hardened against him and repair some of his legacy. Because after all is said and done, he was one of the greatest who ever donned a uniform.

Journalism 101

Headline in many newspapers and around the InterWebs:

A-Rod Snitched On Other Players, Report Says -- Fox Sports
A Rod Snitched On Ryan Braun
Alex Rodriguez Snitched on Ryan Braun and Other MLB Players
Et cetera. You get the idea.

Except they're all false.

No one has produced a speck of evidence, not a jot, an iota, a scintilla, that Alex Rodriguez did anything. But because we perceive that ARod is an AHole, we don't worry about such considerations.

Then there are the headlines like this:

ARod Camp Leaked Biogenesis Documents Implicating Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli
ARod Camp Leaked Docs Implicating Braun -- Associated Press

And so on.

Except they're false.

What these outlets are reporting is that someone else is reporting this. In fact, it's a 60 Minutes report. What's in the 60 Minutes report? We don't know. Who made this claim to 60 Minutes? We don't know. They were reportedly leaked to Yahoo. What does Yahoo say about this? Nothing

In fact, CBS News cites "unnamed sources." Are these unnamed sources knowledgeable and credible? We don't know. The report doesn't actually get aired until Sunday. So CBS has a vested interest in over-stating the case right now. It's called advertising.

Go ahead and read the stories. They contain one sentence about the allegations and six paragraphs of background. Why only one sentence? Because that's all there is.

Maybe ARod really was involved in a reprehensible leaking campaign. Maybe someone speaking for him leaked documents without his knowledge. Maybe someone is lying to CBS for his own reasons. Right now, all we have is a claim by a news organization of an unknown allegation made by an anonymous source without any supporting evidence. 

That's the only truth we've seen.

Finally, A Post on ARod, Biogenesis and Suspension

“When all this stuff is going on in the background and people are finding creative ways to cancel your contract and stuff like that, I think that’s concerning for me, that's concerning for present (players) and I think it should be concerning for future players, as well."
--Alex Rodriguez, American Baseball Player

Think what you like about Alex Rodriguez and the Greek tragedy that has been his life, he at least knows how to send a message.

If myriad reports are correct, Major League Baseball responded to this statement by huffily cutting off negotiations with ARod's many representatives and moving forward with a 200+ game suspension that will invoke the commissioner's prerogative to rule in the "best interest of the game." 

But ARod hasn't hired the nation's least expensive and sophisticated advisers, and the people he has hired know full well that suspension through next year was always MLB's bottom line. Instead, Rodriguez's words were designed to plant a bee in the bonnet of eminently-reasonable union chief Michael Weiner, reminding him that the union disputes the commissioner's claim of unfettered power, which could affect the entire union, and not just the game's number one pariah.

MLBPA Must Contest the Suspension
Rodriguez's legal team knows that any attempt by Bud Selig to claim the right to suspend a player for a full season outside any contractual violation must be contested by the union. If MLB has powerful evidence of steroid or HgH use against ARod, it can suspend him 50 games per the contractual drug agreement. Weiner and the union have made clear that they would not defend any player in violation of that, and in doing so he is echoing the sentiment of most of his members. 

On the other hand, a 2014 suspension, even of the man most reviled by other union members, is a long-term challenge to the union and all the people in the future who will be paying Weiner's not insubstantial salary. If the union lays out the red carpet to Commissioner Bud on this issue it will have set a precedent that it will long regret.

Which Means He'll Play In 2014
Rodriguez knows something else: if the union gets involved, the discovery process will be long, arduous and possibly as embarrassing for baseball as for ARod. (After all, what form of embarrassment has the third baseman left unexplored?) It could extend into 2014, during which Rodriguez will be eligible to play. The earlier ARod gets on the field, the more likely he will be to add to the positive aspects of his career -- i.e., the statistical accumulations -- keeping in mind that he will be approaching his 40th birthday with two surgically repaired hips.

If all of this sounds like a conspiracy, it is a conspiracy to save the newspaper industry, not to mention bolster the late night comedy circuit, 24-hour radio sports talk and the endless argument culture. With Lindsay Lohan and George Zimmerman, ARod has been largely responsible for the continued existence of headline writers nationwide. None of that interests Alex Rodriguez and his minions, of course; their interest lies only in mitigating the long-term effects of his upcoming suspension. And in their high-priced wisdom they have decided that dragging in the rest of the players is the strategy most likely to produce results.

Stay tuned for more headlines -- and more intriguing quotes.

Earth-Shattering Labor Day Insights

Braves shortstop Paul Janish flashes big league leather. We know this because he takes the field daily alongside Major League players even though he is not a Major League hitter. Janish is batting .197/.276/.248 with seven extra-base hits (no homers) in 174 plate appearances for Atlanta. That's a rough approximation of the rest of his five-year career.

By way of comparison, Tim Hudson is batting .222/.260/.276. Hudson is a pitcher. With Janish in the lineup -- which is every day -- 22% of Braves at bats are nearly automatic outs. That's crushing to an offense.

The Braves don't care. Janish anchors an infield that plays a 40-year-old at third base. Janish's glovework is so impressive that he's been worth two wins over a replacement player in his career despite an OPS barely half of the league average. But Janish shouldn't get too comfortable. Rookie Andrelton Simmons flashed leather and batted .296/.336/.452 in 33 games in June before fracturing his hand and he is scheduled for a September return.

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Yankee manager Joe Girardi has invoked the Patron Saint of September, Alex Rodriguez, to secure the East for the Bombers. ARod returns to the lineup today after missing all of August due to a broken left hand, during which time the Yankees scuffled and the Orioles and Rays made up ground.

Girardi is in for a disappointment. ARod batted .276/.357/.449 before the injury. His replacement, Eric Chavez, has hit .365/.403/.587 in his absence, and the gap widens when considering defense.

Girardi should ratchet down the pressure and ask ARod not to screw things up too badly during the stretch run.

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Imagine Penn State firing football coach Bill O'Brien for failing to win the Big Ten this year. Such scapegoating would be pretty transparent.

(Aside: is there a stupider name in sports than the Big Ten? Since they're not 10 and they'll never be 10 again, why don't they change the name to something less inappropriate and confusing? Ditto for the Big 12.)

Analogously, the Houston Astros dumped manager Brad Mills August 18. The team had lost two-thirds of its games and had just completed a 4-34 collapse. 

If the Astros wanted justice, they should have rehired former owner Drayton McLane and former GM Ed Wade just so they could kick their sorry butts out the door again. That pair is responsible for the baseball debacle that you see in Houston today. Their multi-year effort to sacrifice the long-term for short-term mediocrity has forced current management to jettison all their assets and completely rebuild.


The result is a Minor League team getting bullied by the big boys, exactly on cue. Expecting Brad Mills win with this club was like expecting Eddie Gaedel to double off the right field wall.

Current Astro management has otherwise been adept and patient as they reconstitute their franchise. It's hard to believe they fired Mills just because the team was losing, but the signs point that way. Owner Jim Crane said of the firing, "we knew we might slide back a little bit, but we didn't think it would be this bad." If Crane believes that, he is orbiting a planet hitherto unknown.

Mills was a remnant of the previous administration and may not have been bought into the plan. By all accounts he was knowledgeable and supportive of the players despite the demoralizing regularity of failure. Mills appeared to nurture the young guys (actually, they're all young guys on that team) and was focused on teaching them how to play like professionals.

There are myriad reasons unrelated to wins and losses to cut loose the manager. We'll probably never know exactly why Brad Mills wasn't the right man for the job, according to GM Jeff Luhnow. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt . . . but the doubt remains.

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The David Ortiz sweepstakes have officially begun. The Cookie Monster is munching on AL pitching again this year (.318/.415/.611), but he's a geriatric DH with a twangy hamstring who runs like a backhoe and weighs nearly as much. He makes $14.5 million and will be a free agent at season's end, which has already come in Boston. With the Red Sox's big contract purge, it's hard to see Ortiz returning.

So who needs a gloveless big bopper?  Get on line! Most American League teams with playoff designs in 2013 are in the mix. Only Detroit -- a team of DHs, the White Sox -- who can't move Adam Dunn anywhere, and the Angels -- owners of three slugging first basemen, can pass on Big Papi. The Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Rangers, A's, Blue Jays and any of the other franchises, if they're delusional, are imagining Ortiz in the middle of their lineups. Papi's agent will work to maximize contract length, but any team offering more than two years will pay dearly on the back end.

May the worst team win!

Wherefore Art Thou, Alex?

What to make of Alex Rodriguez's 600th home run? Is he ARod, the greatest shortstop of all time? (Actually, the second greatest. It's freaky how much Honus Wagner towered over his peers.) Is he A-Fraud, the steroid user? Is he the rookie who hit .358 and the shortstop who hit 40+ homers six straight years? Or is he the choker who always seems to come up short when it counts? Is he coasting into the Hall of Fame or will he be shunned as a cheater?

And what about swinging into the already-tainted 600 Society? 

By ARod's own admission, he took steroids during his three seasons in Texas, during which time he smacked 144 home runs. I don't want to be Pollyanna about this: he was cheating, putting other players at a competitive disadvantage. He also seemed to benefit from this: his best three-year homer output besides that was 137 from 2005 to 2007 with the Yankees. I think we can acknowledge that steroids helped hitters -- or at least some hitters -- hit for more power. 

But let's be even-handed in our honesty. By any Baseball Writer's admission, ARod didn't spring full grown from Zeus's syringe in 2001; he was already the best shortstop in the game and had already blasted 40+ home runs in each of the three previous seasons. More than 100 other players also tested positive in 2003, so even if that's the full extent of steroid use, which few people believe is true, 13% of players were using. (In fact, Jose Canseco said 75% of players were enhanced, and just because he's crazy doesn't mean he's wrong. He was right about everything else on this matter.) It's hard to fault a guy for feeling the pressure to join the herd, especially if he believes that lesser talents are wresting best-player laurels from him artificially.

Alex Rodriguez increased his longball productivity by 15% during his admitted steroid years, so even if we don't factor in his chronological maturity -- younger players tend to steal more bases but hit for less power -- that's only 19 chemically-enhanced dingers in his career. Let's dock him those 19 when we compare him to the six other greats in the Six Bills Yard Club.

Now, you can certainly argue that ARod might have been juicing in Seattle, but if he was, there's little evidence of it on the stat sheet. Let's compare the three seasons prior to his bulked period, the years on the juice and the three years after testing went into effect.

Years      OPS      HR       

98-00      .903     125

01-03      1.010    144

05-07      1.004    137

There may be some evidence here of a bump from steroids during the years he admits, but I'm not seeing any other, are you? If he was purchasing anabolics in the first part of his career, he deserves a refund.

I don't believe that Rodriguez is in the same category as Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez or Rafael Palmeiro. The last two failed drug tests after steroids were banned. Sosa and McGwire seemed to be using at least by 1998; Sosa may have whacked 350-400 of his 609 while on the stuff. Bonds is a certified Hall of Famer, but his admitted creaming and clearing produced seasons the likes of which we had never seen before -- particularly from a baseball geezer -- and all the attendant reverie that now seems unfairly gained. 

I've left out Roger Clemens (and Andy Pettitte and others) because the combination of pitchers and steroids confound us so thoroughly that denial is the only rational approach. To compound the headache, the majority of players suspended for steroid use since 2005 have been pitchers. Stick that in your ditty bag.

If I seem of two minds about steroid use, it's because I am, and I would argue it's the only reasonable response for a host of reasons I've elucidated numerous times in previous posts. Ultimately, it's easy to see that ARod is one of the 25 or so greatest baseball players of all time. When we stack up his accomplishments against others', we can season to taste with respect to steroids -- I'll subtract 19 home runs -- but to dismiss either his entire body of work or his law-breaking altogether strikes me as the kind of simplistic nonsense that is more at home in the political arena these days.

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What's An All-Star?

As a young Capital reporter in Albany, I thought every statehouse scandal was world-shattering. Today, with many years of perspective, my response to a Bible-thumping governor disappearing for a week of adultery in Argentina is detached bemusement. I've come to recognize that the main purpose of government is entertainment.

Likewise, All-Star elections used to pique my passions. Years later it ceases to rouse me much. (It's worth noting both with respect to government and All-Star games that I continue to vote.) Moreover, my philosophy on who should play has evolved.

In the old days, when social media meant phones in teenagers' rooms, I voted for the player having the best half season, regardless of his pedigree. Over time I realized that many of my choices were regressing to their natural level by year's end while the best players picked it up in the second half.

It seems to me a guy with a lifetime .750 OPS shouldn't start ahead of a veteran star after one good 75-game stretch, and that a superstar shouldn't miss a mid-summer classic because of an injury-marred first-half.

On the other hand, we do put years on the All-Star games. If a top player hits .190 through June, or misses all but 12 games, he probably shouldn't represent his league that particular year.

So when I voted for the 2009 All-Star teams, I chose the players having the best year among those in the top echelon at their position. Sorry Ben Zobrist: get a track record and I'll vote for you. Sorry Manny Ramirez: you can't be an All-Star when you don't play.

My AL All-Star ballot:
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Derek Jeter
3B Evan Longoria
C Joe Mauer
OF Torii Hunter
OF Adam Jones
OF Ichiro Suzuki

I picked Youkilis over Mark Texeira, Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera. Your mileage may vary. I valued his defense and on-base ability. Kinsler got the nod over Pedroia, who's not getting it done this year, and Cano, whose power is a figment of Yankee Stadium. If Longoria weren't already a great player, I might have considered ARod. Ichiro needs to hit .370 to be an All-Star, but that's what he's doing. And Adam Jones may not have a long history of Major League success, but he was a prodigy before he became a phenom. Carl Crawford also merits consideration. Anyone who fails to vote for Jeter or Mauer should have his ballot impounded.

My NL All-Star ballot:
1B Albert Pujols
2B Chase Utley
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B David Wright
C Brian McCann
OF Ryan Braun
OF Raul Ibanez
OF Matt Kemp

In the NL, the best players have done us the favor of having the best seasons at their positions. Only in the outfield is there any uncertainty. I couldn't pass on Ibanez despite the likelihood that he's playing over his head. Matt Kemp got the nod in part because women and children should not be exposed to a Braun-Ibanez-Adam Dunn outfield. Brad Hawpe and Justin Upton have gaudy, park-aided numbers, and haven't established their bonafides.

Season your ballot to taste and remember, you don't have to live in Chicago to vote late and often.

Pudge, Mr Selig Will See You Now

At the risk of belaboring a subject that's seen more labor than Nadya Suleman, I see the commish has summoned a Mr. Rodriguez, two members of his legal posse and none of his cousins to a private tete-a-tete to hash out some steroid -related issues.

Apparently the baseball brain trust is shocked in a Captain Renault sort of way that one of its stars used drugs in an attempt to improve his performance six years ago. Except for the small detail that league offices have been in possession of Mr. Rodriguez's name all this time, it's easy to understand why it's imperative that they question him now.

No doubt the rug in MLB headquarters will be wearing thin this Spring as the other 103 players, whose names have also been known to the Selig Administration, march to and fro under orders to reveal all.

It's a brilliant PR stunt that serves to obscure the fact that baseball currently has the most comprehensive drug testing program of any of the major sports. And that another exciting season is about to start.

All ARod On Steroids Radio

As I write this, the local sports talk stations have become the All ARod On Steroids stations, the way my favorite music station played all John Lennon songs the day he died. The difference is, Lennon died that day, and he was the only person to die in that particular event.

In ARod's case, assuming there is a case, his positive test took place six years ago and he was among 103 other Major Leaguers to turn up traces of steroids in their blood. We've known all along that 8-10% of players had tested positive. It was the justification for individual drug testing in the first place.

We're acting now as ifwe believed that only scrubs were involved. If only the Adam Hyzdus and Mike Defelices of the game had boned up, we wouldn't be crediting steroids with improved performance.

Even then, the question has to be asked: so what? Steroids weren't against the rules prior to '03. If ARod juiced before '03 and has tested clean since, what's the problem? The system works, right?

That ARod may have tested positive in the preseason of '03 tells us little about what he did in '02 and before. Let's see if we can detect a chemical boost in his performance from his the record. The .298/.396/.600 line are his 2003 stats.

BA     OBP   SLG  OPS+
.358  .414  .631  160
.300  .350  .496  120
.310  .360  .560  136
.285  .357  .586  134
.316  .420  .606  162
.318  .399  .622  160
.300  .392  .623  158
.298  .396  .600  147
.286  .375  .512  131
.321  .421  .610  173
.290  .392  .523  134
.314  .422  .645  177
.302  .392  .573  150

Well, he definitely dipped in '04 to just 31% better than average, so he must have stopped doping then. And that proves that he was benefiting from performance-enhancement in the four seasons of .600+ slugging averages.

Except he proceeded to win the MVP in '05 and '07, recording the highest slugging average of his career in the latter, after baseball began suspending players for positive drug tests. So there's little evidence of anything in his record.

If talk of steroids gives you the vapors, here's a suggestion. Assume anyone who was any good between 1998 and 2005 was hopped up. Every MVP, every All-Star, every 30-HR hitter, every 200-strikeout pitcher. Now the next time a name comes out, you'll hardly notice.

It's instructive to reflect on that period in the world outside baseball and remember that Americans elected and re-elected a President who did blow and got caught drunk driving in years prior. And there's nothing in the record to suggest his performance got any enhancement.

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Scratch That About ARod

A couple of posts ago, I posited that Alex Rodriguez was so far the AL MVP, based on his ability to get on base, hit for power, run the bases and play an important defensive position. A fellow blogger, Dickie from Clifton Park, a particular form of partisan known as Soxus Rouges Fanaticus, scoffed at the ARod candidacy, pointing out that the Yankee cornerman has come up empty in key situations.

Over the last few days, ARod has done his best to support Dickie's conclusion. He struck out and hit into double plays in a host of key situations during two critical games against Boston and Toronto.

There are sabermetrician types who claim there is no such thing as clutch hitting. They point out that very few "clutch" hitters repeat their situational prowess from one year to the next. I believe that they are right up to a point. Most of what we perceive as "clutch" is merely getting hot at the right time, and the converse for "choking." But certainly there are a few players who are psychologically pre-disposed to bear down when playing for all the marbles, or become unglued when games are on the line.

Can there be much doubt that the greatest player of this generation is affected by the spotlight? Is anyone more eager to please everyone than ARod? Has anyone failed to answer the bell at more critical moments than he?

So for now, I'm withholding my MVP support for ARod. He has accumulated great numbers -- the best in the league. But he's come up short when he needed to stand tall, and that does matter.