Blessed Are the Cy Young Voters, 2.0

I do a lot of editing of other people's writing in my work, and one of the things I try to avoid is making edits that are distinctions without differences. There's no reason to alter a writer's copy if the change is no better or worse.


Distinctions without differences divide the AL Cy Young candidates so far this year, and by so far, we mean 90% of the way through the season.

Again, let's consider the contenders and shake our heads at the red pubic hair of difference among them. For a discussion of the statistics, see the previous post.

Masahiro Tanaka, 13-4, 2.97, 194 Inn, 160 K, ERA+ 148, FIP 3.27Chris Sale, 15-8, 3.03, 202 Inn, 205 K, ERA+ 133, FIP 3.43
Corey Kluber, 17-9, 3.12, 205 Inn, 215 K, ERA+ 153 FIP 3.26
Jose Quintana, 12-10, 3.05, 192 Inn, 171 K, ERA+ 133 FIP 3.43
Rick Porcello, 20-4, 3.12, 202 Inn, 167 K, ERA+ 146, FIP 3.45
Danny Duffy, 12-2, 3.18, 170 inn, 181 K, ERA+ 139 , FIP 3.53
Aaron Sanchez, 13-2, 3.17, 173 Inn, 140 K, ERA+ 136, FIP 3.60
Cole Hamels, 14-5, 3.24, 181 Inn, 181 K, ERA+ 141, FIP 3.98
J.A. Happ, 19-4, 3.27, 176 inn, 152 K, ERA+ 132, FIP 4.03
Justin Verlander, 14-8, 3.33, 200 Inn, 216 K, ERA+ 124, FIP 3.64
David Price, 16-8, 3.91, 212 Inn, 217 K, ERA+ 118, FIP 3.46

If you like advanced metrics, Kluber's your guy, but Porcello sports a sparkling W-L record and an ERA and FIP that are about the same as the other best contenders. Price leads this group in innings pitched and strikeouts, and though his ERA is high from early season struggles, FIP has him third best.

Good luck with that vote. I think Kluber has an edge on Porcello right now, but Tanaka could win the award with a couple of sterling starts that catapult the Yankees into the playoffs. And if you think Hamels or Sale is this year's Cy, I have no argument against it.

Good Luck With That Cy Young Vote

There are roughly 16 games left in the MLB season as this is being written, and if you know who should win the Cy Young Award in each league, you deserve a prize with the name of dynamite's inventor on it.

In the old days it was easy: find the guy with the best won-loss record and a reasonable ERA and cast your vote. But today we are cursed with knowledge, and the more we know about pitching performance, the less we're able to distinguish top pitchers.

Let's take a look at the top contenders, first in the NL:

(ERA+ adjusts for the ballpark; FIP adjusts for defense. Bold indicates league leaders.)

• Kyle Hendricks, 15-7, 2.03, 173 Inn, 157 K ERA+ 197, FIP 3.38
• Jon Lester, 17-4, 2.40, 184 Inn, 179 K, ERA+ 167, FIP 3.46
• Noah Syndergaard, 13-8, 2.43, 174 Inn, 205 K, ERA+ 165, FIP 2.26
• Madison Bumgarner, 14-9, 2.66, 206 Inn, 231 K, ERA+ 153, FIP 3.20
• Tanner Roark, 15-8, 2.75, 193 Inn, 157 K, ERA+ 152 FIP 3.67
• Max Scherzer, 17-7, 2.78, 211 Inn, 259 K, ERA+ 150, FIP 3.09
• Johnny Cueto, 16-5, 2.86, 207 Inn, 181 K, ERA+ 143, FIP 3.06
• Jake Arrieta, 17-6, 2.91, 179 Inn, 171 K ERA+ 137, FIP 3.49
• Jose Fernandez, 15-8, 2.99, 174 Inn, 241 K, ERA+ 131, FIP 2.40

...and the wild card, Clayton Kershaw, 11-3, 1.81, 129 Inn, 155 K, ERA+ 214 FIP 1.70

In other words, according to ERA+ and FIP, the Cubs pitchers pitch in a good hitting park before the best defense in the game. Noah Syndergaard plays his home games in Supression Stadium but Jose Reyes at third and Yoenis Cespedes in center are catnip for opposition hitters.)

How Do You Value Kershaw?
The first thing voters are going to have to do is determine whether Kershaw is a candidate. He's the king of the hill, but it's not possible for him to be as valuable to the Dodgers in 129 innings as other top candidates are in 200 frames for their teams.

Kyle Hendricks has a real edge in ERA over the field, but fielding independent statistics suggest he's had a lot of luck on his side. Eight unearned runs burnish his ERA. 

Thor is the best pitcher by the advanced stats, but accounting for the shaker of salt we take them with pushes him back to the pack. Lester has the gaudy record and second best ERA, but he has the best team behind him. Fernandez has dominates since returning from injury with 12.5 punchouts per 9 innings and the second best FIP. But the non-fancy stats have him ninth in ERA.

Max Scherzer is near the top in everything, which might tilt the scales in the voting. He's pitched almost as many innings as the league leader and he paces the league in whiffs, with the sixth best ERA and the third best FIP (not counting Kershaw, who isn't eligible for the league lead in those categories.)

The last three weeks will likely decide things, but woe are those who must decide. 

We'll take a look at the AL next, but the song remains the same.

The Mid-Season Cy Youngs

Going into the final two starts of the first half, Chris Sale had a stranglehold on the half-way American League Cy Young, perhaps better described as the Cy Adolescent. At 13-2, 2.79, with 23 BB and 109 K in 113 innings, the lanky lefty was keeping the White Sox in contention.

Then July burst upon him like a heat-seeking missile. After a five-run start that nonetheless added to his win column, Sale ran into the red hot Atlanta Whoaretheseguys, who hung eight runs and 10 hits on him in just five innings.

Suddenly Sale's ERA skyrocketed to 3.38, dropping him from third to 12th in the league as he enters the break. According to ERA, Sale isn't even the best starter on the Chicago staff: Jose Quintana comes in at 3.21.

Does one horrible start against the game's weakest-hitting team disqualify Sale from this phantom award? Oh yeah.

Because lurking in the shadows the whole time was Danny Salazar, a fourth-year Cleveland righty who showed a lot of flame-throwing promise last season. Salazar hasn't pitched as much as Sale -- 21 fewer frames -- but his 10-3, 2.75 ledger, and 118 strikeouts, are mighty impressive. According to wins against replacement, Salazar paces the league by a substantial margin.

Over in the NL, Whoa Nellie! It's the anti-presidential race, with a a whole host of qualified nominees:
Madison Bumgarner -- 10-4, 1.94 and two home runs of his own
Johnny Cueto -- 13-1, 2.47 and four complete games
Jake Arrieta -- 12-4, 2.68 and he's batting .282/.349/.561 with two homers
Noah Syndsergaard -- 9-4, 2.56, but only because he's hurt
Stephen Strasburg -- 12-0, 2.62 and 132 K in 107 innings
Jose Fernandez -- 11-4, 2.52 off Tommy John surgery
Drew Pomeranz -- 8-7, 2.47 though that's in San Diego
Jon Lester -- 9-4, 3.01, making him the #2 starter on the Cubs

Zak Grienke -- 10-3, 3.62 despite a brutal start
Max Scherzer -- 10-6, 3.03
Tyler Chatwood -- 8-5, 3.29 in Denver!

And yet, not one of these guys sniffs the award. Clayton Kershaw is 11-2, 1.79 and his BB/K numbers look like a typo: 9/145 in 121 innings. He's hurled three shutouts. The league has a .205 OBP against him.

In other words, Clayton Kershaw the pitcher makes the world's best hitters look like Clayton Kershaw the batter. He is the runaway halfway Cy Young over competition that could go five or six deep for the award.

What are the odds that Salazar and Kershaw are still the premier pitchers by season's end? For rising stars like Salazar the odds are -- off the top of my head -- less than 50-50. But Kershaw is the exalted poobah of his trade, with a Hall-worthy lifetime tally of 125-58, 2.39, more strikeouts than innings and a 4-1 K-BB ratio.

All hail to Clayton Kershaw.