Wait, Whose Turn Is It To Panic?

Remember when the Giants emerged victorious from Game One of the World Series to steal away the home field advantage?

Talk was rampant about how the magic show was over for Kansas City. Because the winner of Game One wins 116% of all playoff series.

Then the Royals grabbed Game Two and cosmic balance was restored. Funny how life can turn on a single game. 

After KC took Game Three, in San Francisco no less, the panic mode was switched to the Giants' side of the ledger. Home field was back in Missouri. The jitters started in California, and not because of a temblor. It was because the Game Three winner in a one-one series emerges victorious 124% of the time.

You heard the serious discussion about scrapping San Fran's rotation and pitching Madison Bumgarner on three days rest in Game Four and Game Seven. How else would the Giants defeat mighty Jason Vargas?

Bumgarner is 25. In five Major League seasons and 159 starts, he's never pitched on three days rest. Fortunately for West Bay fans, Bruce Bochy has a less active emotional metabolism. He let the panic consume sports talk radio nation while he calmly put Ryan Vogelsong on the hill.

Now with the Series squared at two, and seemingly headed for seven, Game Five is being called "pivotal." I've seen and heard that very word used four times in 12 hours. The winner of Game Five claims the crown 133% of the time, you know. But whoever pivots can pivot back after a day of travel. Someone will win Game Five and go up 3-2. Then someone will win Game Six. That might be the other team, after which the winner of Game Five will cease to matter in the sense that only Game Seven will.

By Game Seven the hyperbole will have been exhausted. The urge to over-state its importance will crash ironically into its actual import. Because the Game Seven winner dogpiles at the mound 100% of the time. And a broken clock is right twice a day.

Hanging Chad

For all the chatter about Joe Girardi's "mistake" in sending out AJ Burnett on three days' rest, let me say this: unless you were decrying the "mistake" before the game, shut up.

I'd love to hear the case for pitching Chad Gaudin instead of Burnett before Game Five. Before knowing how the game turned out. But just after you found out what exactly a Chad Gaudin is. Should a guy with 75 career starts, a lifetime 4.50 ERA (5.50 in the NL) and a 1.6 K/BB ratio start ahead of a guy with 244 career starts, a 3.84 ERA (3.64 in the NL) and a 2.2 K/BB ratio who had already slammed the door once on the opponent?

Joe Girardi had to weigh the potential effectiveness of the former on two weeks' rest against the latter on three days rest. He lives and works with these guys, and knows their physical and emotional makeup. It's a manager's job to make exactly these kinds of judgments, and Girardi has shown a facility for considering the right information before casting his votes.

You don't know Gaudin and Burnett, don't work with them and aren't paid to make such judgments. So unless you argued prospectively that Gaudin was the man, you haven't earned the right to criticize what didn't work.
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