Blowin' In the Wind

About a year ago I addressed Mark Reynolds' future, pointing out how hard it is for a wind turbine like him to be a productive hitter. In a nutshell, a guy who strikes out 200 times a year has eliminated a third of his opportunities to create a positive result. That means he has to be wildly productive in those remaining plate appearances.

This year, that's exactly what he's doing. So far in 2009, the Diamondbacks third baseman has stepped to the plate 487 times. He's whiffed on 158 occasions, about a third of the time and on pace to break his own K record of 204 set last year.

In the remaining 335 plate appearances, Reynolds has walked 59 times and been hit by four pitches, leaving 268 at bats. For Reynolds to achieve even a mediocre .250 batting average, he has to hit .396 in those non-strikeout situations. (This is a statistic that is regularly kept these days -- BABIP -- batting average on balls in play.)

In 2009 Reynolds has passed that exam with flying colors. He is hitting a whacky .451 on balls in play. Moreover, 37 of those 122 hits have been home runs. When he makes contact, Mark Reynolds has a one in seven chance of banging one out. That's pretty historic, even given the dinger-friendly contours of the BoB.

For the year, Reynolds' line is .285/.376/.603, a level that would put him in the MVP discussion on an alien planet that contained no Albert Pujols. Of course, the big question is whether an otherworldly .451 BABIP is sustainable. The answer is no. And yes.

Ordinarily, when you see that a player is hitting .451 on balls in play, you are staring into a crystal ball flashing "regression alert!" Most hitters live around the .333 mark, and anything far outside that is a reflection of luck more than skill. But Mark Reynolds is not any player. Obviously, he is swinging for the fences every time he bats. The two consequences of this approach are that he fans at a record-breaking rate and he crushes the ball when he does make contact. Hitting the ball hard is the formula for getting hits.

Reynolds' first two seasons presage these results. He hit .430 and .395 on balls in play in '07 and '08, walking and homering at lower rates. His approach has been consistent and he's improved a little. That, his age (26) and his build (athletic, not stocky) are good signs for his future. Mark Reynolds can be a very good hitter for much of the next decade even while stirring up the breeze.
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House of Horrors

Dickie from Clifton Park, NY writes in about Mark Reynolds, the Diamondback third-sacker who has clouted seven home runs and whiffed 38 times in just 98 at-bats this season, a continuation of his rookie year performance.

Can a guy like this have any value if he has middling speed and an adequate glove? The answer is yes, but there's incredibly little room for error.

The good news for Reynolds is that as long as he keeps clubbing the ball -- on those occasions when his bat actually meets it -- his hits far outweigh his misses. Research shows that a strikeout is only infinitesimally more harmful than other kinds of outs, on average, but home runs are -- hold onto your seats now -- a really swell thing.

If Reynolds keeps up the current pace, he'll account for 42 home runs and 228 strikeouts in 588 at bats. His 32 doubles and 78 walks will not be anything to sneeze at either. At that rate, his stick will be worth about four wins to his team over a replacement level player. That's not MVP territory, but a team full of clones would win the pennant handily.

Here's why Reynolds can't keep it up. When you strike out 38% of the time, you only have 62% of your at bats available for positive achievement. (I've ignored walks, which deserve better, but I'm simplifying things for those of you who think presidential races ought to be about lapel pins.) To finish the season with even a mediocre .250 batting average, Reynolds needs to hit.408 when he makes contact. Since the average batter hits between .300 and .330 on balls in play, that's a pretty unsustainable rate over a season.

Moreover, to maintain his current home run clip, he would have to blast three out of every 10 of his hits into the bleachers. That's off the charts.

Imagine instead, that Reynolds is more like his baseball brethren and hits .350 when he makes contact and only two of every 10 of his hits find the cheap seats. Then he's a .214 hitter with 25 home runs. That kind of performance will get him traded to the Pirates who will sign him to a multi-year deal.

Guys like Reynolds are amusement park rides -- fun to watch because anything can happen. But unless he lightens up on the wind current creation, his whirlygig will be spinning in Tuscon before the year is out.