What A (Half-) Season It's Been

Hard to believe we're nearly 81 games into the 2017 MLB season. Wasn't Opening Day just last week?

It's been an amazing season. Truly. Little acorn teams have sprung up into mighty oaks. A couple of the mighty have shriveled and gone to seed. A gaggle of mediocre veterans have become Albert Pujols, who himself has become holes of poo.

Most importantly, the game's tectonic plates have shifted. Swing up; hit 'em out.

Let's take stock of the biggest stories of this season so far:

1.  The Launch Angle Revolution -- Hitters have decided that a level swing gets them hard-hit singles. Better to swing up and trade a few more fly outs for a gaggle more home runs, particularly when infields are shifting against your strength.

It's working for White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, whose OPS is 150 points higher than ever before.

It's working for A's first baseman Yonder Alonso, whose home run total in half of 2017 is greater than in any two of his previous seven campaigns.

It's working for J.D. Martinez, whose .658 slugging is 100 points higher than at his peak.

And for the Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman and Tampa Bay's Corey Dickerson and Toronto's Justin Smoak, who previous to 2017 placed on the Career Bust leaderboard. His two-and-a-half wins of value is double any previous full season.

All these guys are coming out of the woodwork and tearing the cover off the ball like never before. But wasn't it Babe Ruth who discovered that swinging hard and angling up offered the best results?

2. Aaron Judge -- And Cody Bellinger too. Out of nowhere, a couple of rookies are vying for their league's respective MVP. Between them, they have slugged 50 homers and earned 7.3 wins against replacement.

And Bellinger didn't start the season with the big club.

And Judge batted .179 in 95 plate appearances last fall.

And he's the second coming of Derek Jeter in comportment, except he's, like, 100 pounds heavier.

3. The Return of Bryce Harper -- Whew! Following a disheartening 2016 in which many observers thought the boy phenom was hurt, he's bounced back to an All-Star first half of 2017, posting an OPS over 1000 and hitting walk-off home runs.

4. The Ascendance of the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Rockies -- At press time* all of these teams have been passed by superior rivals. But they all seem poised to make a post-season run, something not generally in the Tarot cards at the commencement of festivities. They're back to bombing in the Bronx, Colorado has finally solved the home/away puzzle and Phoenix is where the scrubs are supporting the stars.

*There is no press. I write without deadlines. This statement is meaningless.

It will be fascinating to see how long they can keep it up. The Yankees' rotation is suspect, the Rockies' bullpen has regressed and the Dbacks are living off contributions from the likes of Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker and Zach Godley.

5. The demise of the Giants, Mets and AL West. You hear that sound? That was the sound of the Houston Astros clinching the AL West. Premature? Then it must have been the sound of the Giants hitting the Earth. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. We knew the Mets would only be as good as their pitchers' health, but did anyone see this coming in San Francisco? How does a rotation of Johnny Cueto; Jeff, uh, The Shark; and Madison Bumgarner lose more games than all but one team? 'Tis a puzzlement.

6.The accidental? juicing of the ball -- A report by The Ringer found that the baseballs used in MLB games are ever so slightly springier and their stitches are ever so slightly smaller. That means they don't move around as much when pitchers hurl them and they bounce farther off bats. That leads to more home runs, which, coupled with item #1 above, leads to even more home runs, more per batted ball than ever before by a significant margin, as you can see below.

 

7. The head-scratching Cubs -- As recently as 10 weeks ago, the Cubs were the Golden State Warriors of baseball, a juggernaut that would crank out victories until the end of time. Then their pitching staff cratered, their defense became suddenly offensive and Kyle Schwarber found himself in Iowa. We keep saying Chicago will be fine...and they keep losing every other game. Could this be the beginning of the next 108 years?

8. The Brewers' slow burn -- By building their team backwards; i.e., by signing bench parts, utility fielders, middle relievers and fourth starters who have an edge on their league-wide counterparts, the Brewers have embarked on a teardown without the teardown. There aren't any stars on the team, particularly with Ryan Braun on the DL, but their bench is as good as anyone's, and that's kept them over .500 all first half. (The one glaring Achilles heal on the Giants this year is the opposite; their non-starters have been gruesome.) When their farm finally bears fruit they could be a contender without ever having hit rock bottom.

9. The rise of Statcast and the official end of the debate over analytics -- With MLB adopting advanced metrics, and even developing its own, the Luddites have been completely drowned out. Exit velocity, launch angle and other MLB inventions have muted the frustration over useful measurements like TAv, WAR and FIP. Plus Luddite-in-Chief Hawk Harrelson is retiring. The King is dead. Long live the King.

...and we're only halfway through the season.

What We Know At the Halfway Mark

The old canard says that the teams in first at the All-Star break will win their divisions. Were this true, we could write off the second half of the season. Moneyball would never have been written about a sub-.500 Oakland A's team.

The first half counts for something though. It's introduced us to a few a five-tool phenoms, including a Dodger who has outplayed his higher-paid peers in just one month on the job. It's provided 51 of the 82 wins the Pirates need to reverse the engines on their 20-year suck machine. And it's answered the question "how much addition would be the subtraction from Boston of Bobby Valentine?"

Here's a team-by-team catalog of some of the other things we've learned.

Atlanta Braves -- Excellent pitching combined with three-true-outcomes (Ks, BBs and HRs) is a recipe for success. Also, Justin Upton + B.J. Upton < Kate Upton.
Washington Nationals -- Running into walls is not a recipe for success. Also, maybe some of last year was smoke and mirrors.
Philadelphia Phillies -- They're exactly what we thought they were and they're more of it every day.
New York Mets -- A great manager can keep people happy even when losses outnumber bowel movements.
Miami Marlins -- There's a baseball player named Adeiny Hechavarria.

St. Louis Cardinals -- Never underestimate an organization that loses its best hitter and best pitcher, but still gets better.
Cincinnati Reds -- They're a top contender unless Johnny Cueto gets hurt.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- Great 1-12 pitching outweighs even Clint Barmes at short. They'll break .500 but the playoffs are a stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers -- They're still paying the mortgage on 2011.
Chicago Cubs -- Theo's five-year rebuilding plan is right on schedule. The plan involves four years of pungent odors at Wrigley.

Arizona Diamondbacks -- Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt and Didi Gregorious are just getting going. Heath Bell is done. 
Colorado Rockies -- They're one starter away from burying the NL West.
San Francisco Giants -- They've become the anti-Giants: all hit and no pitch.
San Diego Padres -- They're upside-down: Chase Headly can't hit. Huston Street, Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard can't pitch. Andrew Cashner, Jason Marquis and Evreth Carbrera are carrying the team. Doesn't matter: they're mediocre however you slice it.
L.A. Dodgers -- Buying up players from losing teams doesn't lead to winning. (Duh.)


Texas Rangers -- They're strong on both sides of the ball but without a bench they'll continue to be vulnerable.
Oakland A's -- "You got pitching in my OBP." "You got OBP in my pitching." Rieces Peanut Butter Cup!
Anaheim Angels -- Only 12 more years of Pujols and Hamilton. Worst investments since Enron. Or ARod.
Seattle Mariners -- Thank goodness for Houston.
Houston Astros -- Las Vegas says two chances in five they fail to hit 100 losses.


Detroit Tigers -- We thought they needed a closer when the season began. Turns out what they needed was a closer.
Cleveland Indians -- Even 81 games in you still don't trust them.
Kansas City Royals -- The hallucinations that prompted trading a top prospect for James Shields are now simply nightmares.
Minneota Twins -- The Padres of the American League. It might never get better.
Chicago White Sox -- When a guy batting .198 is your second best hitter, make October vacation plans. They have talent on the mound but Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn struck midnight.


Boston Red Sox -- The old guys still have it -- at least for half a season.
Baltimore Orioles -- The lightning's still in the bottle -- at least another day.
New York Yankees -- The replacements had it again -- for 60 games.
Tamp Bay Rays -- Who needs money when you have Evan Longoria and your team is named for my dad?
Toronto Blue Jays -- The big free agents who didn't have it in Miami, still don't, at least so far.

The narrative's half written. Baseball teams are like rivers -- they're never the same twice. Acquisitions and losses alter dynamics; injuries and recoveries explode expectations; the light bulb goes on for some guys; the engine runs out of coal for others. Let's recognize our All-Stars and then enjoy the second half. We're in for a humdinger. 

Mid-Summer Review

Greetings and salutations from the halfway point. That's what we call the All-Star break, which of course, is the point at which teams have played 56% of their games.

At this juncture, the Seattle Mariners are within four games of even and just 6.5 games behind division-leading Texas. And they have as much chance of making the playoffs as PacMan Jones has of winning Sportsman of the Year.

There are more bats in the average church belfry than on the Mariner roster. It's a moral victory in Seattle that the M's have out-homered Jose Bautista. But it's close. The Mariners have not managed to out-homer the combination of Joey Bats and any one of 37 other players, including such sluggers as Mark Trumbo and Asdrubal Cabrera.

Similarly, the Pirates are one game back and yet so far away from contention in the NL Central this year. Pittsburgh fans can celebrate the team's ascent to respectability, but unless that's the peak they aspire to, Pirate brass will balk at flipping emerging talent for veteran rentals in a likely fruitless effort to cash in a year early. Better to leave Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cincinnati to squabble over the division this year; the Bucs are priming the pump for a sustained run at contention with four youthful regulars hitting at above average rates, four solid young starters and a stud relief corps. Seven of the 12 regulars are 28 or under and the entire pitching staff is 30 or less.

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With 70 games to play, we can reasonably count out Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, San Diego, the Dodgers, Houston and the Cubs. Except for the Blue Jays, these teams are all insurmountably bad and far behind. The Blue Jays are the latter only, but the teams they are chasing are numerous (three, to be exact) and baseball's best.

I've generously left Washington, the Mets, Florida and Oakland off the morgue's cadaver list because these teams' fans may still harbor some remnant of hope for the season. Indeed, the Mets and Nats can feel good about their present state, but Philly and Atlanta will not be caught by the likes of them. The Marlins and A's may be better than their records, but they're 14 and 11 games behind, respectively.

All the teams listed above should consider moving any veterans of value whose contracts expire this year for some nubile talent.

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We've had a whopper of a career milestone reached in the most dramatic way during the first half. There remain some interesting career inchpebbles in the second half. Alex Rodriguez stands sixth on the career home run chart, just four dingers behind Ken Griffey Jr. for fifth. If his knee cooperates, ARod will play again this year and snake his way up the career leaderboard for runs (17th; 50 more moves him to 12th), RBIs (11th; 40 more gets him to eighth) and total bases (14th; 100 more moves him to 12th) as well.

With 58 more hits, Derek Jeter reaches the top 20 in hits and the top 15 in singles. He's 24th in runs scored but can crack the top 20 in a stretch.

On the mound, Mariano Rivera needs 20 saves to become the all-time saves champ, but that's about it. With a dearth of Hall of Fame pitchers plying their trade this year, the smoldering remains of Javier Vazquez is the active leader in strikeouts, and he's 35th on the career list. 44-year-old Tim Wakefield is next, in 57th. Wakefield also leads active pitchers in wins with 198 -- 111th all-time.

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First half awards time. Adrian Gonzalez is demonstrating in spades that the switch from offense-hating Petco to hit-happy Fenway swamps the the move to the harder league. He's accumulated a sparkling .352/.412/.589 slash line, leading the league in hits, doubles, total bases, batting average and RBIs. He's also an A+ defender. So the first half AL MVP goes to ... Jose Bautista.

Amazingly, Bautista makes Gonzalez look like Tinkerbell. At .332/.468/.702, Toronto's masher paces the circuit in on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs, walks and intentional walks. Even if his defense could best be described as "feet bolted to the right field turf" he'd be the MVP. (For the record, he's a fine defender who even fills in at third.)

Jose Reyes has a case for first half NL MVP, but Matt Kemp has a better one. Kemp is hitting .317/.403/.591 with home base in Dodger Stadium and surrounded by Frank McCourt's hitless wonders. He leads the league in VORP (value over replacement player), which doesn't account for fielding, and in WARP (wins against replacement player), which does.

Roy Halladay is my first half NL Cy Young, even though Jair Jurrjens has given up half a run less per game. Halladay has pitched 30 more innings and has triple the strikeout/walk ratio. Jurrjens' BABIP-against is a luck-flecked .256. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw earn honorable mention.

AL Cy is also a two-man race: Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander. If you squint, you can see an iota more consistency in Weaver's performance, so I tilt his way, but Verlander is a perfectly defensible choice. Honorable mention to Josh Beckett.

Ninety games is dearly insufficient for an informed Rookie of the Year vote, especially since some rookie phenoms start the season on the farm. There are a lot of good candidates, but Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is mowing down the NL competition. Kimbrel has shattered the rookie record for saves by the break with 28 (of 33). His high heat has sent 70 batters back muttering in just 46 innings and the best hitters in the world are batting .179 against him. Beat that, Bastardo.

Rangers starter Alexi Ogando, about whom I opined a few posts ago, has performed admirably in the first half and is the leader in the clubhouse for AL Rookie of the Year. But as I mentioned in that piece, he's already in uncharted workload territory. If he falters in the second half, Angels first sacker Mark Trumbo might take the prize with 30 home runs.

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When the NL and AL were different leagues, with different rules, different league presidents, different umpiring styles, different playing surfaces and attitudes towards race, the All-Star game was a clash of titans. It was the only time all year we could see Mike Schmidt take his cuts against Jim Palmer or Tom Seaver face George Brett.

Today, the NL and AL are little more than conferences in a league. They're separated by the DH but connected by 300 interleague contests and free agency that moves players between them regularly. A whole team has switched sides and another is rumored to be on the way. Naturally, the Mid-Summer Classic feels more like an oldie. There's no going back, and the fact that the site of one World Series game might hinge on the result doesn't change that.

So I'll enjoy the game for what it is -- an exhibition filled with future Hall of Famers -- and try not to fret about what it's not.
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