Welcome Back, Ryan Braun!

I deeply regret many of the things I said at the press conference after the arbitrator’s decision in February 2012. At that time, I still didn’t want to believe that I had used a banned substance. I think a combination of feeling self righteous and having a lot of unjustified anger led me to react the way I did. I felt wronged and attacked, but looking back now, I was the one who was wrong.

I am beyond embarrassed that I said what I thought I needed to say to defend my clouded vision of reality. I am just starting the process of trying to understand why I responded the way I did, which I continue to regret. There is no excuse for any of this.

For too long during this process, I convinced myself that I had not done anything wrong. After my interview with MLB in late June of this year, I came to the realization that it was time to come to grips with the truth.

--Ryan Braun

You see? Ryan Braun didn't choose a slash-and-burn strategy to avoid responsibility for cheating. He wasn't purposely lying through his teeth when he hurled accusations at Major League Baseball and a poor courier who already suffered the indignity of having to handle a vial of ballplayer urine.

No, Braun was hallucinating. He imagined he was a virtuous upright citizen while brazenly and falsely accusing others of lying in order to protect himself. He didn't decide to be a cynical, hypocritical prick; it was something that happened to him. 

But he's better now. He's recovered, as from a disease, debilitating and unfortunate, but temporary. He had an epiphany -- can Jewish guys have those? -- exactly coincidental with getting caught red-handed. Swell! Okay? All forgiven now?

Somewhere in Hades, Richard Nixon is indignant. He also cheated and lied about it. But while Nixon lacked the sanctimony, he at least had the decency to suspend himself -- for the rest of his presidential career. He spent the rest of his life attempting to reclaim his legacy but the lead in his obituary was still about Watergate.

Ryan Braun, on the other hand, or perhaps a lesser version of the Ryan Braun who was juicing, will return next year to the Brewers with a contract that will pay him millions of dollars. The Milwaukee faithful, redolent of hope and lacking options -- his contract is guaranteed, so he's playing -- will almost certainly embrace him wholeheartedly. If he helps the Brew Crew contend, they will roar their forgiveness and begin rationalizing their feelings in an explosion of cognitive dissonance.

The rest of us, we are not obliged to such folly. Despise ARod if you must, but your enmity is misplaced. Ryan Braun pointed fingers, Ryan Braun victimized truth-tellers, Ryan Braun smeared his accusers. Lyin' Ryan is the guy who deserves your eternal damnation.

On Second Thought

A common form of rationalization is to reach a conclusion that feels good and then find the facts that support it. This is part of cognitive dissonance, which I've described before as the most insistent psychological artifact affecting humans. Without cognitive dissonance, the reconciliations necessary to support our religious and political beliefs would explode our brains (or at least leave us in a state of constant disquiet.)

However, loyal dedication to the truth, rather than to particular points of view, forces us to acknowledge the weaknesses in our arguments and the power of contradictory viewpoints. Which brings us to Ryan Ludwick.

The St. Louis Cardinals trade deadline dispatch of Ludwick, roundabout, to the San Diego Padres for middling starter Jake Westbrook has reasonably earned the opprobrium of this blog. In yesterday's post, I noted the Cards' offensive sputtering since Ludwick's departure. It seemed like a sound argument.

Deeper examination blurs the picture a bit. Ludwick has stunk up the joint (.194/.237/.250 in the last 10 games) since his departure, and so have the Padres, now on a 10-game skid. His replacement in St. Louis, rookie Jon Jay, has similarly struggled in that period, but was considered a worthy and less expensive replacement at.327/.379/.480 for the year. It can't credibly be said that dealing Ludwick has harmed the Cards and aided the Pads; indeed, the Giants seem to have been the primary beneficiaries of the trade.

It was still a Cardinal error in the long run, particularly considering how very meager was their return. But it's not fair to say that the absence of Ludwick is what sunk St. Louis's playoff hopes.

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An example of how W-L records skew our understanding of the game:

On a Braves broadcast today, the in-studio hosts mentioned that Roy Oswalt would lead the rival Phillies against Florida the next day. An unnamed host mentioned that Oswalt has been lights-out since coming east, after "struggling" in Houston.

No doubt, the Phils struck gold when they traded for the venerable righty. He's averaged nearly seven innings in his seven starts as a Phillie, limiting opponents to an exemplary 2.08 ERA with eight punchouts per nine.

Before the trade, though, Oswalt was no slouch. His 6 1/2 innings per start were likely diminished by the need for pinch hitters. A 3.63 RA in front of worse defense obscured a superior K/BB ratio and pure strikeout rate. The patina of failure that coated Oswalt during his Astro tenure was all about a 6-12 record that was largely the fault of his feckless mates.

In fact, Oswalt's performance since joining the pennant fray was almost entirely predictable given his long track record and the line he'd authored in the first half of the season. Six and twelve sounds like failure, and it is, but not Roy Oswalt's.

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