Q. Why couldn't you answer all these questions in the last post?
A. Like this one? You didn't ask it until now.
Q. Two years ago, the metrics said Jonathan Lucroy was the best framer in baseball, and one of the best ever. Today he's the worst in baseball. Can that be? Is he really worse at a skill that doesn't require much athletic activity? Or are the numbers just wrong?
A. Yes.
Something
you said is correct; we just don't know which. Research has found that
Lucroy's targets are set a few inches higher now than a couple of years
ago and that might affect low strike calls. We know that Lucroy was catching better pitchers than he is today, and that could be reducing the number of balls he gets called strikes.
And we know that framing is a young metric that might need to be taken with a grain of salt just yet. I suspect all three are conspiring to drag him down.
The real question is, why does MLB accept a situation in which catchers routinely confuse umpires into making the wrong call? If we went to automated ball-strike calls, there would be no catcher framing. Problem solved.
Q. Who was the biggest snub of the All-Star selections?
A. They're not snubs; they're just different ways to split hairs. Of the guys left off the original team, it's a shame that there wasn't enough room for the bonanza of great NL third basemen -- Justin Turner and Kris Bryant particularly. Elvis Andrus and Xander Boegarts were also worthy of AL shortstop slots.
Alex Wood is having a great year pitching for the Dodgers. Tommy Kahnle's been superb in relief for the White Sox, though I love Terry Francona's decision to choose mostly starters for his pitching staff. They deserve most of the slots.
The good news is that with all the injury defections, everyone I named will probably end up in Miami.
As for the fan selections, I thought they did a great job. I would quibble with Zack Cozart over Corey Seager for NL shortstop only because I don't choose an All-Star based solely on half a season of work. Seager is far more likely to maintain the pace than Cozart, which is why I voted for him even if Cozart enjoys a slight edge so far in 2017.
Q. I know this isn't a baseball question, but what do you make of the controversy surrounding John McEnroe's comments about Serena Williams?
A. What controversy? McEnroe called Serena the greatest women's tennis player of all time but declined to anoint her the best without qualification because she couldn't compete on the men's tour.
McEnroe was simply stating a self-evident fact of biology. For example, the women's record for running the mile is 4:12:56. Five hundred six male high schoolers have run faster than that. There is nothing sexist about McEnroe's statement, though I would have added that in her realm, Serena is the greatest ever. She has dominated women's tennis more and for longer than any man has dominated men's tennis.
Q. What can baseball do to return the All-Star game to its former grandeur?
A. Eliminate half a century of improvements and innovations, like cable television. A more useful advance would be for old-timey baseball fans to recognize that the All-Star game will never again bring the nation to a halt.
Q. You said last time that Adrian Beltre is going to the Hall of Fame. No way. He's only made four All-Star teams.
A. Babe Ruth never made an All-Star team. We should yank him from the Hall.
All-Star teams are half-season rewards. They are meaningless when it comes to Hall resumes. In his 20-year MLB career, which is still going strong, Beltre has 91 wins against replacement (fourth all-time among third basemen), 450 home runs (third) and will secure his 3000th hit this season. He is a stellar fielder with 27 defensive WAR. Althon Sports and ESPN both rate him the eighth best hot cornerman in history. His top 10 similar players include eight HOFers and a future HOFer (Carlos Beltran). Guy is a lock.
Q. You seem to be selling the Milwaukee Brewers short. Can't they win the NL Central?
A. Sure they can; it's just highly unlikely. The race isn't always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. The Cubs just have too much talent, and the Brewers too little pitching, for the status quo to continue for 162 games. But who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Q. The Rockies seem to be drowning and now their Wild Card lead isn't so formidable. Do they still make the playoffs?
A. If I knew that for sure I would be tanning on a Tahitian beach or camera-hunting wild nyala on an African safari right now. I'd rather start the second half with a six-game cushion than deficit, and I'd rather put my money on a team 12 games over .500 than another two under. But who knows? It would be really strange if all of today's leaders made the playoffs.
Q. Name one player in for major regression in the second half and one who will rebound.
A. Anyone who follows baseball can compare a player's first half performance to his career norms and predict a return to them. That would mean second-half leaps for Manny Machado, Hunter Pence, Jonathan Lucroy, David Price and Carlos Gonzalez, to name a few. Conversely, it would tab Yonder Alonso, Avisail Garcia, Zack Cozart, Jason Vargas and all the rookie sensations for decline.
I don't have any insight into which guy has changed his profile and which guy is headed for a fall/rebound, though Price and Lucroy have been trending this way since last year.
Q. What changes do you expect now that the All-Star game is back to an exhibition without impact on the post-season?
A. We've already seen it: Tito named deserving starters to the AL squad, rather than loading up on relievers who are accustomed to entering games midway through.
Q. Will Miguel Montero ever criticize his pitcher again?
A. Maybe once. But then, never again.
Q. How good was the play Dustin Pedroia made yesterday?
A. It was a heads-up play executed brilliantly. It was a lot like Derek Jeter's play cutting off the throw to the plate and nailing Jeremy Giambi in the playoffs, but because Dustin Pedroia isn't a vessel we pour all our goodness into, it will not be lauded for generations. Nonetheless, it was every bit as fine a piece of work.
Q. Do you believe that participating in the Home Run Derby messes up players' swings?
A. No evidence of that. Some sluggers might lose their dinger mojo following the derby, but correlation is not causation. Sluggers suffer power outages all the time.
Q. What is your favorite site for baseball analytics?
A. I read Fangraphs every day. Baseball Prospectus has become a fantasy site, of no use to me. MLB.com, SB Nation, The Ringer, The Hardball Times, 538.com and local team sites also provide lots of interesting material. Also, check out the blog Braindrizzling for brilliant insights and unequaled humility, particularly if you love Derek Jeter, Ryan Braun and Donald Trump.
Q. With the Cubs and Red Sox in the win column, which team do you think is the most overdue for a World Series?
A. Which is worse, Cleveland's last title coming 68 years ago or Houston's entire 54 years without a ring? Whichever you choose is the answer.
The Rangers are at 55 years as a franchise without a World Series title, but that includes 11 years in Washington, so that pain isn't borne by the Metroplex locals. The Padres have failed to win a championship in their 47 years as have the Brewers and Nationals if you include their time as the Pilots (one year) and Expos (35 years) respectively. Seattle has had the Mariners for 39 campaigns without even a World Series appearance. After that, you're looking at ordinary droughts of 37 years for the Pirates, 33 for the Orioles and 32 for the Tigers. The Rockies and Rays have also never won titles in their 24 and 19 seasons respectively.
Q. What is preventing the best baseball players from congregating on the same few teams the way NBA players do?
A. The Yankees were doing essentially this in the 80s and 90s. It was terrible for the game. Today, there are so many barriers to hording:
1. Teams control players for their first six seasons in the Bigs.
2. The salary cap is very punitive.
3. A team would need to sign five of the best starters and eight of the best everyday players to resemble the Golden State Warriors of horsehide.
4. The game is played in the summer, consequently, players aren't clamoring to avoid cold weather cities. Milwaukee and Toronto are probably more comfortable to play in than Dallas, Houston and Miami.
5. Baseball players aren't generally able to transcend the game the way hoopsters are. They can't be as dominant and don't play in their underwear.
6. Unlike the NBA, the season matters and the playoffs are a tossup, so assembling the best players only guarantees a post-season berth.
In short, it just isn't worth the trouble and cost, and wouldn't ensure a title.
Q. I have a bet with a friend who says a team of average players would be average. I say they would be better than average. What say you?
A. You win handily. By definition, most MLB players are below average. Above average players take the first few positions and below average players divide the remaining innings. After the first three starters, two relievers and five or six position players, the rest of an average 40-man roster is sub-median.
An all-average roster would win, I would guess, 84-88 games.
Q. Have baseball analytics come any closer to quantifying the value of a manager?
A. I doubt it ever will.
Q. Is it possible, with all the objective measurements, for someone to be "most under-rated" or "most over-rated?"
A. The margins are smaller, but yes. Ironically, as we do a better and better job of measuring what's on the field it's the intangibles that become more weighty in discussions of parsing player valuations. A guy like Jose Bautista might be over-rated because he galvanizes the opposition. (I don't know how true even the premise is there.) Maybe Yasiel Puig the same. A guy like Mike Napoli might be the reverse.
The one guy I'd like to mention is Ender Inciarte, a terrific all-around ballplayer who does a little of everything. He's a speedy outfielder with good instincts; he sets the table and runs the bases adroitly. He's not a big power guy but pitchers can't sleep on him. And guys seem to love playing with him. So maybe he's under-rated, though it could be that many baseball observers already knew what you just read.
And that's enough reading for you, young man or woman, as the case may be. Keep those questions coming...
