Freakin' Amazing Cautionary Tale

If you just started watching this guy three years ago, you'd expect he'd be signing a minor league deal somewhere with hopes of making the 40-man roster as a middle reliever. He's lost three games compared to a journeyman fifth starter the last three seasons, posting ERAs of 5.18, 4.37, 4.74 even as hitting declined.

He's made 41 quality starts the last three seasons, fewer than good pitchers supply in two. Since 2009 he's pitched fewer innings every year except one; since 2008 he's struck out fewer batters per nine every season but one.

He made $17 million last year. He'll make $18 million this year. For the World Champions, no thanks to him. He pitched to five batters in the entire playoffs in 2014.

That's the real reason to call him The Freak.

Tim Lincecum has been a disaster since he won consecutive Cy Youngs and followed that with a pair of All-Star appearances. He's lost velocity off his fastball, bite off his slider, length off his locks and pretty soon, years off his career.

The former best pitcher in baseball is one more replacement-level season from getting cut at age 30. It's hard to believe and serves as another cautionary tale against extrapolating pitching careers. It reminds us that there are no guarantees that Clayton Kershaw is Cooperstown-bound, or that Max Scherzer makes the Nationals' rotation stronger.

Freaky Bad & Other First Half Oddities

Something is freaky with Tim Lincecum, and not in a Tim Lincecum-freaky kind of way. His walk rate is up 38% and he's allowing 28% more baserunners. He's not getting his fastball over, which is just as well, because it's lost four miles-an-hour of velocity. Losing four miles an hour from one year to the next is like growing four inches. It doesn't happen to Major Leaguers under the age of 51. (Good news, Jamie Moyer, not that you have four mph to lose.)

The Giants' stopper is 3-9, 6.08. The Web is abuzz with theories, ranging from exhaustion to the loss of his regular weed dealer. (No kidding.) Old Kremlinologists have found a new career parsing Lincecum's pitching woes. (Kidding a little.) What's definitely true is that the Giants' only hope of winning the division without contributions from their star is to stay in the NL West and wait for the Dodgers to wither.

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Why so little confidence in the Trolley Jumpers? Because Don Mattingly has sent out beanstalk shortstop Dee Gordon to bat leadoff in three-quarters of the games Gordon's played. That's understandable, since Gordon rocks a .280 on-base percentage. Problem is, it's .274 when he leads off.

But there's good news for fans of the Blue and White. Dee's on the DL. Let's see if Mattingly can find another suitable leadoff hitter -- perhaps speedster Tony Gwynn. He's got the DNA and the .294 OBP.

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Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Placido Palanco and Carlos Ruiz have all gotten into the lineup together just 40 times in the Phillies' last 400 games. They have a .725 winning percentage in those games, which means that if they all manage to stay upright the rest of the season, the Phils will win 90 games and a Wild Card.

And if I get dealt 133 royal flushes in a row, I could win money in the World Series of Poker.

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Nice to see Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel unmasked as the fraud he is. Last year he used a scorching fastball and biting slider to intimidate NL batters into a .208 batting average, fanning 127 in just 77 innings en route to a 2.10 ERA and a league-leading 46 saves as a rookie.

What a fluke! In just the first half of this year, he's already surrendered five runs.

Some may point out that Kimbrel again leads the NL with 24 saves, his strikeout rate is up over 15 per nine innings, his walk rate is down and batters are hitting just .123/.198/.160 against him.

But they neglect to mention that in 31 appearances he's been roughed up for a double and a homer. Plus, he's setting the club back nearly $600K. 

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Brewers ace Zack Greinke got ump-tossed after four pitches to Astro batters yesterday. Logically, he's back on the hill today with the All-Star break following. Greinke is also slated to start the Brewers' first game after the break next Friday, which would be his usual spot in the rotation.

If it all works out, Greinke will be the first pitcher to start three straight games since Red Faber of the  1917 Chicago White Sox.

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The All-Star Futures Game tomorrow features all the best young prospects in the game -- except for the two most important. That's because Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are already tearing up the Majors.

Harper  is hitting .283/.355/.475 for the Nationals and has electrified fans in the nation's capital. Just 19, he is younger than all but one of the prospects representing the five NL East teams in the Futures game.

Angels' centerfielder Mike Trout, at 20, leads the AL in batting and could even make a mid-season MVP case (.343/.399/.555) as a rookie. He is younger than all but two of the prospects representing the AL West.

Neither will be at the Futures game because they are the Present. And neither can legally celebrate with a beer.

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