A Seamhead Predicts This Year's Surprise Performers

Spring Training is like a movie trailer. It's not the movie. It's often nothing like the movie. It's made up entirely of elements from the movie, but in a different context that can be very misleading. It has a different purpose than the movie. Don't judge a movie by its trailer, or a player by his Spring Training performance.

For one thing, its a ridiculously small sample size. (We're speaking of Spring Training now, but it also applies to the trailer.) For another, the competition is suspect. And many players use their time in Florida or Arizona to hone a particular skill.

And yet, sabermetric pioneer John Dewan, one of the founders of STATS, Inc. and the leading developer of fielding statistics, has determined that Spring Training does have predictive value in one narrow area.

Players whose slugging percentage spikes 200 points above their career norms experience breakout seasons 60% of the time. Think of Jose Bautista in 2010 and Jonathan Lucroy, AJ Pierzynski and Billy Butler last year. (A breakout season is generally considered a 20% increase in the relevant skill being measured, but that doesn't appear to be Dewan's yardstick. I'm not sure what standard he's using.)

With a modest .670 lifetime OPS his first two seasons, Lucroy busted loose for the Brewers last year, posting an .803 OPS in 2012, adding 35 points to his batting average, slugging 12 jacks in half a season's work and doubling his walk rate.

After 14 seasons behind the plate, Pierzynski had established himself as a solid (for a backstop) .740 OPS hitter, with slugging numbers in the low 400s and home runs in the low teens. Inexplicably last year, he slammed 27 long balls en route to a .501 SLG, an .827 OPS and the best effort with the stick of his career.

With an .820 lifetime OPS, Butler reached career highs with 29 homers, 107 RBI, an All-Star berth and an .882 OPS last year. Calling that a breakout is a bit of a reach, since "Country Breakfast" hit .300 and posted OPS of .850 twice before.

It's worth mentioning that none of the three -- there were plenty of others -- has maintained his great leap forward so far in 2013. That was to be expected of the 36-year-old Pierzynski. Because Lucroy is so young and Butler is every bit the star we saw in '12, the odds are on their side over the long haul.

All that said, here's Dewan's list of potential breakout candidates (minimum of 200 regular season at-bats and 40 spring training at-bats)

Hitter/Team, Spring Career Difference
Brandon Belt, Giants .906 .418 .488
Justin Smoak, Mariners .811 .377 .434
Howard Kendrick, Angels .833 .428 .405
Ryan Raburn, Indians .833 .430 .403
Nick Hundley, Padres .773 .390 .383
Rick Ankiel, Astros .780 .422 .358
Michael Morse, Mariners .824 .492 .332
Mike Moustakas, Royals .726 .395 .331
Brent Lillibridge, Cubs .675 .350 .325
Mark DeRosa, Blue Jays .725 .412 .313
Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians .725 .421 .304
Kevin Youkilis, Yankees .778 .482 .296
Domonic Brown, Phillies .675 .388 .287
Mitch Moreland, Rangers .727 .441 .286
Wilin Rosario, Rockies .805 .522 .283
Dexter Fowler, Rockies .705 .427 .278
Alex Gordon, Royals .714 .439 .275
Craig Gentry, Rangers .618 .355 .263
Gaby Sanchez, Pirates .683 .420 .263
Bryce Harper, Nationals .730 .477 .253
Juan Francisco, Braves .692 .440 .252
Elvis Andrus, Rangers .604 .353 .251
Brandon Crawford, Giants .577 .333 .244
Steve Clevenger, Cubs .523 .281 .242
Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays .655 .414 .241
Lucas Duda, Mets .660 .427 .233
Raul Ibanez, Mariners .700 .470 .230
Luis Cruz, Dodgers .600 .371 .229
Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks .625 .400 .225
Freddie Freeman, Braves .671 .449 .222
Peter Bourjos, Angels .614 .402 .212
Ben Francisco, Yankees .636 .425 .211
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks .636 .432 .204
Lorenzo Cain, Royals .615 .412 .203

I'll bet my favorite trumpet, Otis Mahorn, that Raul Ibanez doesn't out-perform his stellar career at age 57 (or whatever.) Conversely, it would be quite the upset if Bryce Harper failed to make a quantum leap following his Rookie of the Year season.

And finally, whatever magic beans Luis Cruz was planting in the Spring lost their powers once the season began. Even his weak lifetime .371 SLG is going to be a stretch after losing his infield job with the Dodgers because of 71 plate appearances with a hollow bat. A walk and six singles later (in 71 trips to the plate! That's .090/.114/.090 for you slash stat buffs) he's on the bench behind substitutes who couldn't make the Marlins' roster if you spotted them 10 home runs.

If Dewan's research is borne out over time, we'll have another weapon in our growing arsenal of analysis. We'll keep an eye on this group.

Whether "anal retentive" Has a Hyphen

The number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.

Anything Hugo Chavez says.

How much money Sarah Palin raises for a presidential bid.

The health warning on a cigarette package. 

The Oakland Raiders' first draft pick.

A baseball player's spring training stats.

What do these things have in common? They don't matter. 

What a guy does in 50 non-consecutive at-bats (or 20 innings, pitched three-at-a-time) against competition that's either headed back to A-ball or working on its nascent slurve couldn't be less relevant if it were the Pope's pronouncements on birth control. 

That's not to say that spring training doesn't matter, or even that how a guy looks during the is irrelevant. We'll be watching some guys'  health closely. (I'm looking at you Brad Lidge.) We'll be looking to see whether some pitcher has developed a new pitch. But let's not get all excited that some lifetime .208 hitter has popped four home runs. I've gone yard in parks with 240-foot fences.

Opening Day is a week away. We'll start finding out then. Man I can't wait.

b

Good WBC News

I've got good news for Derek Jeter, Kevin Youklis and Jake Peavy. You're not playing for me, my honor or my pride. I don't care if you cough it up in the World Baseball Classic to Puerto Rico, the Netherlands or Guinea Bissau. Take it easy guys: the future of our country is not on the line.

Frankly, I don't care about the WBC in the first place. Coming as it does during Spring Training and missing so many top players gives it the essence of pre-season irrelevance in the first place. The exhibition-style rules that limit play -- e.g., pitching limits and mercy rules -- reinforce that. There's no way that's going to compete with my anticipation about the start of the season.

In a larger sense, these nation vs. nation sports exhibitions like the Ryder Cup, Davis Cup, Olympics, etc. designed to inflame nationalistic passions have always bemused me. Why do I care whether a collection of American professionals defeats a collection of Angolan amateurs in basketball? Athletes who are implored to "represent their country" should tell those urging them to shut the fuck up. They don't owe any of us anything, and nothing they do in those contests accrues to your advantage or mine in any way.

I'd feel a lot more national pride if we could reinvent our health care system so it worked, show some national restraint on energy use, treat the rest of the world a little better, balance our books, educate our children, feed our poor. But even without these things, and regardless of whether we outpitch Venezuela in the WBC, I feel pretty lucky to have been born in the freest, richest country the planet's ever produced.