Suppose you had a roster spot to fill on your team and you needed a fifth outfielder, utility infielder or platoon DH. You could grab some veteran off the waiver wire for the bargain-basement price of $2 million or promote a kid from Double-A. For the 85 at bats they'll get, the slightly higher quality of the veteran doesn't carry much significance, but at one-quarter the salary, the rookie's lower cost does.
So, absent any other offers, another 35-year-old retires from the game.
Most Valuable Players Are The Lowest Paid
Sports Illustrated's Jonah Keri released a list this month of the most valuable players in baseball, taking
into account their cost. As you might imagine, the list is light on players on the wrong side of 30, not because they're not great, but because they're expensive.
Clayton Kershaw, a generational pitching star, slots only 23rd on the list because he's already commanding $215 million over the next seven years. Among those ahead of him are Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer and Noah Syndergard, all lesser hurlers making near the league minimum.
Thirty-two-year-old Miguel Cabrera, still the best hitter in the game, didn't make the top 50 or honorable mention. He can thank the quarter-of-a billion dollars due him as his baseball AARP discounts kick in for that.
Vastly Underpaying Great Young Talent
Baseball salaries are structured, at least until the next collective bargaining agreement is negotiated after this season (we hope), to compensate the owners for their investment in players in the early years and then compensate players at full market value thereafter. For their first three seasons of roster time, players earn a stipulated amount -- less than $600,000 -- whether they are the 25th man or Mike Trout.
In years four-through-six, arbitration allows players to capture a fractional share of their free-market value, until after their sixth season, when they are eligible for a free agency bonanza. At the current rate of roughly $8 million-per-win, an average starter entering free agency can expect to ink a multi-year deal worth around $16 million-a-year.
Expensive Experience Vs. Cheap Enthusiasm
Given that, who would you rather have manning a corner outfield slot, pre-arb Christian Yelich, a three-win performer under team control for four more years or four-win Jose Bautista, who earns $16 million this year and enters free agency next? Youth is served with extra garnish under the current compensation system.
This has been true for years, but never before have young players arrived so ready for the Big Leagues in such large numbers. Consider: Manny Machado, Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano, Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Xander Boegarts, Mookie Betts, Andrelton Simmons, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Anthony Rizzo, Nolan Arrenado, Jake Odorizzi, Noah Syndergard, Zack Wheeler, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and of course, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. All of them under 25 and cost-controlled. And I'm sure that list is incomplete.
Goodbye Graybeards
So, higher quality juveniles are crowding out the oldsters, not just theoretically but in practice. There were more than 30 position players age 36 or older with 100 or
more plate appearances in 2012 and 2013, 22 in 2014 and only 18 in
2015, according to Dave Cameron at Hardball Times. This strongly suggests that teams are opting to fill their rosters with higher upside players at low cost than overpay for veterans in their declining years.
Now add a recent development -- the Qualifying Offer. The recent unpleasantness inflicted upon Ian Desmond following his foray into the free agent market is evidence of how artificially low costs for young players are squeezing the market for veterans. Desmond, coming off a bad year and turning 31 this season, eschewed a $15.8 million, one-year "qualifying offer" from the Nationals for a shot at a multi-year deal that would set him for life. Any team signing Desmond would have to relinquish its prized first-round draft pick to Washington. That left Desmond without suitors and lowered his value to the one year, $8 million offer he signed with Texas.
The Consequences Going Forward
The Nationals would have liked to keep their second baseman, but they might like the draft pick even more. If that pick turns out well, they will have a young star for six years at below-market rates, allowing them the financial freedom to sign expensive free agents elsewhere on the diamond.
The players' union is not unaware of this development. Representing as it does existing members, not future ones, the union has already begun making noises about obliterating this system and about raising the minimum salary. We could be in for the first contentious labor negotiations since the abomination of 1994.
Showing posts with label Sports Illustrated. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports Illustrated. Show all posts
31 October 2015
Sandy, Don't Re-Sign Daniel Murphy!
Back in 2010, the Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez, up until then a .500 pitcher with a four ERA, began unraveling the Colorado mound curse. The Dominican righty entered the All-Star break an untouchable 15-1, 2.20.
I remember listening around that time to a baseball reporter -- either Buster Olney or Tim Kurkjian, but in either case a respected and knowledgeable scribe -- discuss at length the changes Jimenez had made in his approach and execution, and the challenge of hitting his mid-90s heat and quality secondary pitches. The reporter extolled the mechanical changes Jimenez had made that had catapulted him to present and future glory.
Had he entered free agency right there, teams would have been waving Woodrow Wilsons at him.
Very nice.
And then the rest of Jimenez's career happened. He went 4-7, 3.80 in the second half, and has authored a 50-58, 4.43 resume since, allowing nearly a runner-and-a-half per inning.
Which brings us to Daniel Murphy, a perfectly good second baseman known for intelligent play and a nice batting average, but not much power or defense. Since his return from injury in 2011, he has produced 13.3 offensive wins against replacement in five years. That's a solid starter. (Baseball Reference says he's given back three wins with the glove during that time, but we're dubious about defensive metrics.)
In the wake of Murphy's sudden liftoff in the playoffs -- a record seven homers in six straight games against the best pitchers the NL has to offer (excluding his own staff) -- the narrative has turned. Suddenly we're scouring Mets lore for the source of this outbreak, and the slight increase in power. (He hit 14 homers this year, one more than in 2013, and recorded a .449 SLG, one point higher than in 2011. The small uptick in muscle accompanied a small downtick in batting safely, resulting in a fairly typical Murphy season.)
Several sources have documented that hitting guru Kevin Long rejiggered Murphy's setup, keeping his hands lower, bending his legs deeper and starting his leg lift earlier. Perhaps as a result, he popped eight home runs in August and September, and then seven more in nine games before entering the World Series. The implication, of course, is that the slugging is now a Murphy trait.
And maybe it is, but that's not the way to bet. Daniel Murphy enters free agency as a 31-year-old future former-keystoner. It's far more likely that we've seen his best than the beginning of something new. One front office wag speculated to Sports Illustrated that his activities in the NLCS had raised his price to five years/$75 million.
To the Mets, that should sound like Bernie Madoff with a stock tip.
Sandy Alderson now has five sterling starters and a golden closer, all 27 or under, around whom to build for future World Series runs. While a $10 million, 280-pound boulder comes off the payroll, the lineup is still wanting, particularly if the straw that stirred this season's drink, Yoenis Cespedes, seeks Bartolo Colon's weight in gold. One way or another, the Mets need to pony up for a reliable middle-of-the-lineup hitter or they could suffocate on 2-1 losses again the way they did through July.
For a franchise with limited resources, a host of arbitration raises to contend with and that one big need, Daniel Murphy on a long, fat contract is not the prescription, particularly if Wilmer Flores can cover the keystone.
Absent a natural replacement, should the Mets re-sign Muphy? Sure, for three years at a reasonable price, while they look for reinforcements as he ages. But breaking the bank for Daniel Murphy? Please. His leg kick isn't that much earlier.
I remember listening around that time to a baseball reporter -- either Buster Olney or Tim Kurkjian, but in either case a respected and knowledgeable scribe -- discuss at length the changes Jimenez had made in his approach and execution, and the challenge of hitting his mid-90s heat and quality secondary pitches. The reporter extolled the mechanical changes Jimenez had made that had catapulted him to present and future glory.
Had he entered free agency right there, teams would have been waving Woodrow Wilsons at him.
Very nice.
And then the rest of Jimenez's career happened. He went 4-7, 3.80 in the second half, and has authored a 50-58, 4.43 resume since, allowing nearly a runner-and-a-half per inning.
Which brings us to Daniel Murphy, a perfectly good second baseman known for intelligent play and a nice batting average, but not much power or defense. Since his return from injury in 2011, he has produced 13.3 offensive wins against replacement in five years. That's a solid starter. (Baseball Reference says he's given back three wins with the glove during that time, but we're dubious about defensive metrics.)
In the wake of Murphy's sudden liftoff in the playoffs -- a record seven homers in six straight games against the best pitchers the NL has to offer (excluding his own staff) -- the narrative has turned. Suddenly we're scouring Mets lore for the source of this outbreak, and the slight increase in power. (He hit 14 homers this year, one more than in 2013, and recorded a .449 SLG, one point higher than in 2011. The small uptick in muscle accompanied a small downtick in batting safely, resulting in a fairly typical Murphy season.)
Several sources have documented that hitting guru Kevin Long rejiggered Murphy's setup, keeping his hands lower, bending his legs deeper and starting his leg lift earlier. Perhaps as a result, he popped eight home runs in August and September, and then seven more in nine games before entering the World Series. The implication, of course, is that the slugging is now a Murphy trait.
And maybe it is, but that's not the way to bet. Daniel Murphy enters free agency as a 31-year-old future former-keystoner. It's far more likely that we've seen his best than the beginning of something new. One front office wag speculated to Sports Illustrated that his activities in the NLCS had raised his price to five years/$75 million.
To the Mets, that should sound like Bernie Madoff with a stock tip.
Sandy Alderson now has five sterling starters and a golden closer, all 27 or under, around whom to build for future World Series runs. While a $10 million, 280-pound boulder comes off the payroll, the lineup is still wanting, particularly if the straw that stirred this season's drink, Yoenis Cespedes, seeks Bartolo Colon's weight in gold. One way or another, the Mets need to pony up for a reliable middle-of-the-lineup hitter or they could suffocate on 2-1 losses again the way they did through July.
For a franchise with limited resources, a host of arbitration raises to contend with and that one big need, Daniel Murphy on a long, fat contract is not the prescription, particularly if Wilmer Flores can cover the keystone.
Absent a natural replacement, should the Mets re-sign Muphy? Sure, for three years at a reasonable price, while they look for reinforcements as he ages. But breaking the bank for Daniel Murphy? Please. His leg kick isn't that much earlier.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)