Who Will Win the World Series

On the day after the San Francisco Giants agreed to pour about $10 million too much into Tim Lincecum's bank account...

(I mean, really, the guy has been a below-average pitcher for the past two years. If the G-men have some reason to believe in a Freaky return, fine, but they don't have to pay him like it. $14.1 million for one year would qualify them for compensation if he bolts, and that's more than he deserves. A two-year, $24.1 million offer would have been more than fair and barely justifiable.)

If you want to have a good laugh, read the "analysis" being done of the World Series. You'll particularly love the ubiquitous position-by-position comparisons, as if Dustin Pedroia lines up across the line of scrimmage from Matt Carpenter.

Any analysis at all of the teams' strengths is largely irrelevant in a seven-game series. The better team is going to lose the series 40% of the time even when it's clear which one is better. A quick perusal of the Cards and Sox reveals that this one really is a toss-up. Here's why:

Both these teams are among the top five hitting teams in their league. Cardinal shortstop Pete Kozma is the only soft spot in either starting lineup. You can expect plenty of offense throughout both lineups -- unless you can't. Predicting how teams will hit in a seven-game series is a fool's errand; witness the playoff series that got the two squads here in which neither showed much life at the plate, absent a pair of grand slams.

Both teams have top five pitching. The Cards have the edge at the top: they own the single best starter in the series in Adam Wainwright. They might own the second-best too if Michael Wacha, who'd thrown all of 60 innings in his Major League career prior to the playoffs, continues his run of terror. Expecting Wacha to strangle Boston the way he did the Dodgers is like expecting a solar eclipse the day after seeing one. The Red Sox are nothing like free-swinging L.A.  -- they saw more pitches per game than any team in baseball. In fact, the Sox are nothing like any team Wacha has ever seen. With the DH, at least in his first start, Boston will throw one above-average hitter after another at him. So let's go light on the Michael Wacha predictions.

If the Cards own an edge in the rotation, the Sox take it back in the pen. Trevor Rosenthal is the presumptive closer for St. Louis, but he's no Koji Uehara. Boston also has more lefties in the relief corps and a pair of starters -- Ryan Dempster and Felxi Doubront -- who can eat innings and save the bullpen from wear in a blowout or extra-inning affair.

Defense is more of a wash, primarily because, though neither team commits many errors, neither is stellar with the leather. B-Strong will be further weakened when David Ortiz shuffles to first with his mitt in Busch Stadium. Youngsters in both dugouts will give announcers plenty of opportunities to blame errors on inexperience and butterflies.

One extra game at Fenway conveys a tiny edge to the hometown team, but only if there's a Game 7. We should be so lucky. If there's an emotional lift to be had, they have the marathon bombings, but it's more likely that the statute of limitations is up on that tragedy, which they've been riding all season. The same for any revenge factor St. Louis might feel about the 2004 Series sweep. Only Yadier Molina and manager Mike Matheny (as a player) remain from that Cardinal team. (Only Big Papi from Boston.)

If you think managers make much difference, you're right. A weak tactician can diminish his side's chances. Neither of these relatively inexperienced managers has demonstrated much inclination towards bonehead moves. Frankly, each of them has a bevy of good options on the mound and at the plate.

Bottom line, a pair of teams that beat expectations and tough divisions to post 97 wins, come into the Fall Classic on a roll. Even-Steven, Bob.

Let's just slay one dragon you've already begin seeing around the ballpark. The chatter about how individuals have played in the postseason -- all of nine games for Boston and 11 for St. Louis -- is pure drivel with the predictive value of astrology. Some players may indeed be hot, or cold, or hurt. Most of them though, performed well or poorly for a few games that are now over. Shake the etch-a-sketch and play ball.

Go Saux. Go seven games.

Yo, Adrian!

Ron from Boston asks,

Why do the Sox think that they are  better off w/Gonzalez then Beltre?  Gonzalez may be better (and maybe, in Fenway, even better than we've already seen), but based on last year they bring quite comparable offensive and defensive skills to the team.  (You dismiss Beltre's 2010 as a walk-year anomaly, but it's not really inconsistent with the ups and downs he's had throughout his career.) 

And the cost of the upgrade to Gonzalez is 3 highly rated prospects and probably about $10 million/yr. in payroll, assets that could be used to improve the team in other ways.  I don't see that the upgrade is worth the cost.

Here's why Theo and I prefer Adrian over Adrian. Guess what the following is:

91-97-98-163-93-105-112-108-103-141

Those are Adrian Beltre's OPS+ for the last 10 years. (OPS+ is a player's on-base + slugging compared to league average, on a scale of 100. An OPS of 91 is 9% below average.) Pretty inconsistent, and unimpressive other than two years, right?

Wait, I pulled the hidden ball trick. Let's finish the list:

91-97-98-163 (walk year)-93-105-112-108-103-141 (walk year). Would you buy that stock at 141?

With Beltre, you pay Adrian Gonzalez money and get Alex Gonzalez until Christmas Eve, and the prospect of Santa's arrival.

This year's version of Omar Minaya (whoever that is) will pay 141 OPS+ money for Adrian Beltre over five years and get four years of 103 OPS+. Meanwhile, the Saux shuffle that cash to a more productive Adrian.

With the signing of Carl Crawford, Boston now has a solid infield anchored by A-Gone and Youk, and an outfield that reads more like an Olympic 4x100 relay team -- Crawford, Cameron and Ellsbury. (JD Drew, who stole 49 of 65 bases his first three years, is the slowpoke here.) Good luck to any batted ball intending to land in that outfield.

These two deals also eliminate any uncertainty about Cliff Lee's whereabouts in April. The Yankees now must empty the vault for the only remaining significant upgrade available. Finishing second in that contest will lead to the same result in the standings.

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