Running the Numbers

Great NY Times article on the use of computer simulations in baseball.

The main takeaway from it is this: there is no debate in baseball team offices about the value of advanced analytics: teams are spending millions on it to get an edge.

The article also mentions that steals, bunts and intentional walks are not necessarily good strategies. To clarify: all of them are good strategies when used judiciously.

It takes two swiped bases to offset a caught stealing, so you should rarely attempt a steal if there isn't a 70% chance of success. The out sacrificed to move a runner into scoring position reduces the average number of runs you'll subsequently score that inning, but with a pitcher at bat, or when one run is all you need, it may be an effective strategy. Intentional walks make sense in some situations that improve match-ups or where the added baserunner is irrelevant. Likely, all of these strategies are overused. It's no surprise that the two teams that employ them least -- the Saux and the A's -- are the most statistically savvy.