Once Upon A Time: The Ken Grifffey Story

Two months late, the Ancient Mariner has retired, one of the six greatest center fielders of all-time, the fifth most prolific homer run hitter of all time and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Baseball fans were remembering Griffey today for his power, speed, arm, smile and for popularizing the southbound cap on a northbound head.

The narrative also includes this odd touch: Griffey is the first slugger of his era to retire without a hint of steroid scandal clinging to his hung-up uniform. It's apt then that he puts away the cleats after the kind of long, steady decline that used to characterize all the greats, including the two most recent giants ahead of him on the center fielder list -- Willie and Mickey.

Looking back on Junior's career, it's easy to forget that 630 home runs and a .284 BA are pale shadows of what we expected of him in the late '90s. Back then, visions of unprecedented greatness danced in our heads.

Remember the furor over the packaging of Junior to his hometown Reds for what seemed like a pile of seaweed -- Brett Tomko, Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Jake Meyer?  Since the trade, Cameron alone has been more than three times as valuable as Junior...and he's still accumulating value.

In fact, when we consider the spectacular career of Ken Griffey, Jr., we're really talking about his first stint with the Mariners -- which comprises the first half of his career -- and nothing else. I divided his career into its first 12 years, 1989-2000, which includes his first campaign with the Reds, and the second 11 seasons, 2001-2010. Behold the following:

In the first half of his career, Junior smoked 438 home runs. He was the fastest player ever to 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 dingers. In the second act, he coaxed 192 out of the park.

In the first half of his career, he slugged .500+ nine times and .600+ five times. In the second half, he slugged .500 four times and never came close to .600.

First half -- .380 on base percentage seven times. 

Second half -- none.

First half -- .300 batting average seven times.

Second half -- once.

First half -- 100 RBI seasons eight times.

Second half -- none

First half -- 100 run seasons six times.

Second half -- none

First half -- 173 SB.

Second half -- 11 SB

First half -- 10 Gold Gloves.

Second half -- none

During his first 12 seasons, the Kid was 66.4 wins better than a replacement player. By the age of 30 he had already made his Hall of Fame case and won a conviction. That's fortunate, because he earned just 8.1 more wins against a replacement player in the second half of his career.

None of this diminishes Griffey's accomplishments; in fact, it's partly the result of his prowess astonishingly early in his life. In the four years when his contemporaries were taking Sociology 101 and challenging Cal-Irvine for the Big West title, Junior was winning hearts and minds in the Pacific Northwest, hitting .300 three times and creaming 87 taters in the Bigs. 

So here's to Ken Griffey, Jr., an all-time great. Just not in this millenium.
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A Good Trade...To Avoid

After a trade of C.C. Sabathia to any team willing to pony up a herd of minor league stallions, which I predict will never materialize, the most discussed mid-season swap out there in sports talkland is the Rays nabbing Ken Griffey, Jr. for a couple of their myriad stable hands.

Apparently, sports talkland believes that the dysfunctional 2000 Devil Rays management team that inked Greg Vaughn, Jose Canseco and other dilapidated statues to expensive contracts is still guiding the team. Because there is not one single redeeming feature of such a trade.

To wit:
1. The Rays were built for long-term success by amassing a great farm system. (It helps to pick first every year.) Trading the future for a one-year fix makes no sense. Trading it for a one-year fix and a one-year albatross is downright Littlefieldian.
2. The Rays don't have much need at Griffey's position. They are winning because of pitching and defense, but their outfield is above average and improving. BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Cliff Floyd/Eric Hinske are an excellent defensive outfield with two good bats.
3. Junior is a marginal player at this point in his career. A constant injury risk, the future HOFer is hitting .245/.354/.405. and not nearly the defender he once was. That's not good enough to supplant any of the above-named players.
4. Fourth outfielders aren't worth $16 million. They aren't even worth $1.6 million, particularly not on the Tampa payroll.
5. Whoever they'd have to give up has a whole career ahead of him and will be avaialable at below-market wages for the first six years. That $16 million could pay a whole infield and outfield of players with limited service time.
6. There's already a highly-valuable veteran outfielder available for less money. And he's a free agent, so the Rays wouldn't have to mortgage the future to get him. It is He Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken. $3 million and a three-month commitment would get you .245/.420/.500.

I have heard some object to signing Darth Vader on the grounds that it would be anathema to the Rays' fans. Tell you what, get me both their phone numbers, and I'll allay their fears. Because last I looked the Rays didn't have enough fans to vent a large bathroom. They play in a space bubble, a living room with a blow-up roof, and they cram 7,000 people into the 40,000 seats. There are more Cubs fans at any given moment on the Dan Ryan Expressway than Rays fans in all of Tampa and St. Pete.

So please, spare me the silly Junior to Tampa talk. And the C.C. to anywhere talk too. The Indians are the best team in the Central, seven games out with 90 to play. They're more likely to pick up a second-baseman than ditch their best pitcher.