No Tres Bon, Pierre

Juan Pierre is batting .261 with six steals this year and lots of left field speed. Sounds like a good leadoff choice for the White Sox, right?

And he is, for the White Sox' Double-A affiliate in Birmingham. Because, according to Beyond the Box Score, Pierre is the worst player in MLB so far, costing the White Sox a full loss already in a quarter of the season compared to a replacement level left fielder.

How? To start with, he hasn't left the park yet. Well, "yet" is probably not appropriate, since it connotes an expectation that we shouldn't have. Pierre has jacked two homers in the last five seasons, and 14 for his 12-year career, In fact, in 202 plate appearances, he has just six extra-base hits. That leaves him with an empty .261/.320/.298 line.

The speed? He's swiped six bases. In 14 tries. 

But he's got great field coverage with the glove, right? In fact, defensive metrics say he resembles a statue in left this year. Now, defensive metrics have as much variability as London weather, but that's not a good sign. Pierre turns 34 this August and maybe he's having trouble getting reception in US Cellular Field.

All this, of course, is fun with numbers. Pierre is what he is and always has been: a speed-first guy with a decent average, as many walks as strikeouts and a theft rate of 75%. He utterly lacks pop, but he's a solid fielder who staffed center creditably for half his career. So look for his batting and on-base averages to rise and his steal rate to improve. His defensive calculations will stabilize, whether because of improved play or the dampening of statistical quirks. He'll be worth a win over replacement by season's end, or else his season will end prematurely. 

In the meantime, he bears some of the blame for the Southsiders' poor start.

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Who's Up First?

Remember the housing boom and the stock market boom that preceded the current economic meltdown? That's what's going to happen to Dodgers fans currently thrilled to have Juan Pierre leading off.

Pierre is currently hitting .404/.456/.505 and making Chavez Ravine go all Alzheimer's about Manny Ramirez. With the Dodgers sporting the best record in baseball, fans can be forgiven for thinking Joe Torre is the Stephen Hawking of baseball.

Problem is, Juan Pierre is a leadoff hitter like I'm a Mariachi band. Sure, I taught myself to make some sounds on the trumpet when I was younger, but I've lost most of what little ability I once had. Pierre's on base average the last four years have been .326, .330, .331 and .327. As Bill Parcells pointed out, that's who Pierre is.

Who Pierre is, is not a leadoff hitter. A guy who puts you in the one-out, no-one-on hole two thirds of the time is a number eight batter. The fact that he can't reach the warning track in two swings shouldn't count as a stroke in his favor when considering who should be the appetizer in the lineup. (Twice in his career he's snagged 13 triples in a season. That's his lifetime home run total.)

When Pierre regresses to his rightful place -- .280/.330/.350 -- he's going to cost LA runs in the #1 spot. With Andre Ethier (.298/.367/.482 lifetime), Matt Kemp (.297/.341/.474) and even Mark Loretta (.297/.362/.398) in the lineup, it's not as if Torre doesn't have alternatives. It's that he made a bad choice that's going to cost his team a game sometime before Ramirez returns.b