Meet the New Leadoff Hitter. Same As the Old Leadoff Hitter.

Dear Seattle Mariners fan,

My very deepest, most sincere, heartfelt and genuine sympathies. If you had any notion that you were already knee deep in the fire, you just discovered that was just the frying pan. 2012 promises to hurt even more.

Last year, the Sub-mariners -- because their hitting is below sea level -- trotted out the second lamest collection of bats we've seen in decades, finishing last in baseball in scoring with just 3.43 runs/game in a 4.46 league. Even lamer was the 2010 squad, which scored just 3.17 runs per game in a 4.45 runs/game league, making the last two years the most punchless performance since Rope-A-Dope.

But have no fear, if you need the deck chairs re-arranged on the Titanic mess that is your offense, manager Eric Wedge has a foolproof plan.

Wedge has boldly announced, even before Spring Training as begun, that he is making a big move at the top of the lineup. One-time superstar Ichiro Suzuki, now 38 and getting aboard just 31% of the time, is out as the leadoff hitter.

The new leadoff hitter is the answer to this question: whose four-year, $36 million contract was the biggest waste of legal tender in baseball history? That would be utility infielder Chone Figgins, signed to staff third on defense and reach first on offense for Seattle. The only time over the first two years of his deal that Figgins has reached first is on a throw in the dirt. 

The new Mariner leadoff hitter offers a .236/.308/.285 alternative over the last two seasons to Ichiro. If that doesn't sound like a table-setter, that's all right. It's not as if there's anything being served at this banquet.

Consider that last year, their top slugger was catcher Miguel Olivo, whose 19 home runs accompanied a .224 batting average and .253 OBP. Or that their best (and only good) hitter, rookie second baseman Dustin Ackley (.273/.348/.417), played just half a season. Or that CF Franklin Gutierrez batted .224 with 16 walks and one home run, and was not the worst hitter in Seattle's starting lineup. (That would be the aforementioned $9 million man.)

Which might explain why Wedge, using all the weapons at his disposal, will punish Ichiro's dreadful 2011 performance, in which he neither reached base much nor hit for power discernible at even the atomic level (.272/.310/.335), by shifting him to the third spot in the lineup.

Gaaaaaaack.

Now let's be real. Ackley will have a full season and Jesus is coming -- Yankee import Jesus Montero, who has served notice that he can rake at the highest level. And Seattle still Marinates in pitching -- Felix Hernandez and...uh...well, Pineda and Fister are gone.

Seattle Mariner fans, my very deepest, most sincere, heartfelt and genuine sympathies.

b

The Standings

One of the great beauties of baseball is that it's so unpredictable. Every year, a team or two that appear moribund make play0ff runs. The Rays and Cards of '08 come to mind. Conversely, some squad that's stacked, tanks. 2008's Detroit and Cleveland are exemplars.

Paradoxically, that makes pre-season projections so much fun. The one below is from Baseball Projection, which uses a system called CHONE (named facetiously for creator Sean Smith) to project the most likely performance from each player in the league, estimate his playing time, and then aggregate all that for each team. It calculates the resulting runs scored versus runs allowed and then uses the Pythagorean formula to project the team's record.

The shortcomings of this method (or any projection made prior to Opening Day) are so transparent as to belie comment. But the projections do give us a guide as to which teams appear stonger or weaker than you might have thought at first glance. Keep in mind that these projections don't include Manny Ramirez's signing or any trades/signings/injuries after February 24.

American
East	W	L		Central	W	L		West	W	L
Yankees	97	65		Indians	90	72		Angels	85	77
Red Sox	96	66		Tigers	85	77		A's	81	81
Rays	89	73		Twins	79	83		Mariners	78	84
Blue Jays	75	87		White Sox	73	89		Rangers	72	90
Orioles	74	88		Royals	72	90
National
East	W	L		Central	W	L		West	W	L
Phillies	87	75		Cubs	88	74		Dodgers	82	80
Braves	86	76		Cardinals	83	79		Padres	80	82
Mets	86	76		Reds	82	80		D-Backs	79	83
Marlins	75	87		Brewers	81	81		Rockies	78	84
Nationals	74	88		Pirates	73	89		Giants	77	85
				Astros	72	90

Remember that these are "average" projections; i.e., there is an equal chance according to this system that each team will win either more or fewer than the number of games listed. So, for example, the Rays may have more upside than the Yanks and Sox, but more downside as well. 89 wins is the midpoint.

I personally believe that the Mets should be a narrow favorite in the NL East and that the Indians and Mariners are vastly overrated by this system. I think the Royals are improving and would bet real American legal tender that they don't have the worst record in baseball. I'm surprised by the lack of respect for the Cubs in a weak NL Central, but not surprised at all by the tossup nature of the NL West.

Take it for what it's worth.