Things were better in my day, sonny. Men were men, not the sissies of today. We had to get up and change the channel. If we wanted to call someone, we had to wait to get home and hope they were too. We made our own coffee or drank sludge from a gas station. Why these kids today...
That's John Smotlz the broadcaster, a pitcher from yesteryear when starters hurled 220 innings and worried about winning 20 games. (Of course, the previous generation wondered why the limp-wristed weenies of Smoltz's day couldn't throw 30 complete games and 300 innings.)
Watching perfectly good starters get yanked after four frames has been a tough pill for him to swallow. He hasn't been out of the game that long and already it's transformed.
So he's having trouble adjusting. When Dave Roberts pulled Rich Hill from Game 2 in the 4th inning after giving up just one homer, Smoltz blew a cork. He lamented how burning the starter with five innings to go would put tremendous pressure on each member of the bullpen who comes in to pitch. Each of them has to be effective.
Smoltz is right about that. More pitchers, more margin for error. In a close game, that matters.
This matters more, though: bullpens are designed for long appearances. Managers now remove pitchers before they get into trouble in the playoffs because every game is critical; every out counts.
Relievers in Smotlz's day were either closers or failed starters. No more. Today many of them are better than the starters. They throw bb's and let it all fly for one frame. The Dodgers' pen is stocked with these guys.
The Reasoning
Astro starter Justin Verlander was cruising when Roberts pulled the plug on Hill. One run looked like it could be determinate. With the heart of the order due up for the third time, it made sense to end Hill's night.
Pitchers generally, and Hill particularly, struggle against opposition when facing them a third time in a game. In previous playoff games in which Hill pitched, Dave Roberts had yanked him at or near the 18th out -- two full times through the order.
Roberts Was Right Too
The results weren't what Dodger fans wanted this time, but that was primarily because the Astros spit in Superman's face -- scoring twice against unhittable Kenley Jansen. That's not generally the way to bet.
Roberts did the right thing, but Smoltz has a point too. Managers should be careful about pat answers.
Once upon a time, in a land called Playoff Baseball, three teams went up two games to none in their Division Series.
Each of these teams enjoyed an insurmountable lead because they had momentum.
Team One -- we'll call them the Dodgers, like the Artful Dodger of Oliver Twist fame -- went to the desert and swept the third game to win the series.
Team Two -- we'll recognize the genius of George Jetson's dog by naming them for him -- scored three times early in the next game and then got plastered 10-3. Uh oh, momentum gone! They came back from a deficit to win the series in Game 4.
Team Three -- the one that lost three straight deciding games to gakk up the 2016 World Series -- lost two straight deciding games in New York despite the largest gap in regular season wins between division series opponents (11 games). Now they must return to Cleveland with all the momentum switched to the other side. They might as well give up.
Three 2-0 counts; three different results.
Momentum sure is predictive. Of nothing.
There was a lot of talk in Game One of Yankees-Indians about momentum coming into the playoffs. New York has it. Cleveland has it. Aaron Judge has momentum. Cory Kluber has momentum. It is exuding from people's pores, by the announcers' telling.
It is true, of course, that both teams entered the playoffs after hot Septembers. All that was dutifully recounted.
Here's what wasn't recounted -- all the empirical evidence that demonstrates unequivocally that it doesn't matter. Not one iota.
There is literally no correlation -- zero, zilch, nada -- between how well a team played in September and how well it plays in October. We have 100 years of performance to guide us and its lesson is conclusive. Change the parameters and get the same result. How well they played the last week, or the second half, or since X happened. Doesn't matter.
This conversation is literally irrelevant.
But that doesn't seem to stop the talkers from talking about it. And it's going to get worse.
In the wake of Game One, the ordained analysts are going to chirp endlessly about the Astros' momentum and the Indians' momentum. They each won ONE GAME! But now they have that invisible force on their side.
Until they don't.
