With 14 games left in the season, seven American League teams still have a conceivable chance of earning a slot in the Wild Card play-in game. (Baltimore and Toronto have fading hopes of winning the AL East; the Orioles play a set in Boston starting tonight.)
Orioles 82-67 --
Blue Jays 81-68 --
Tigers 79-70 2
Mariners 79-70 2
Astros 78-71 3
Yankees 77-72 4
Royals 76-73 5
With 13 games left, there's plenty of opportunity for the two teams leading the charge to falter and for a team down near the bottom to streak its way in.
If you figure that 88 wins will be necessary for a Wild Card game appearance, Baltimore and Toronto still need to go 6-7 and 7-6 to get in. Each team has done worse over 13 game periods at various times during the season.
Detroit and Seattle have to get hot -- 9-4 -- but nothing outrageous. Each team has posted 9-4 records over 13-game stretches previously. (Indeed, Seattle is in such a stretch.)
For New York and KC, great drama would be necessary. The Yankees, stripped of their best hitter (pre-Gary Sanchez) and their two best relievers, would need to win 11 of 13 to pass four competitors ahead of them. The Royals would have to reprise recent miracles and win 12 of 13.
Baseball Prospectus, which uses all kinds of fancy calculations about strength of schedule, real team performance and so on to derive its playoff odds, puts Baltimore and Toronto at 76% and 63% respectively. That seems high to me, particularly considering the drama we've seen in recent years.
BP also suggests the Tigers and Mariners each have a 23% chance of getting in. It doesn't feel right that the odds could be so against a team that would be at 50/50 with two wins.
In case you're wondering, the Astros are listed at 13%, Yankees at 2% and Royals at .3%.
Go ask the 2011 Red Sox and Braves about those odds. Ask Rhonda Rousey and Ian MacGregor. Ask anyone (like me) who dismissed the idea that an ignorant, unqualified, juvenile jackass clown could become President of the United States.
Go Royals.
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