Maybe He Likes Sellout Crowds

Much is being made today of Colby Lewis's shiny playoff doodads: 4-0, 1.67 with a .155 BA against. The obvious conclusion is that Lewis thrives in the high-stakes environment of the postseason.

Had Lewis gone 4-0 1.67 in July, no one would have taken any notice, or assigned any personal characteristics to his streak. But let's suppose that Lewis's performance in four games means something.

It's exciting to think that the spotlight thaws some psyches and melts others. It adds intrigue and allows us to assign ordinary strengths and weaknesses to players whose abilities are beyond our comprehension. Undoubtedly, there are a few players who are actually so affected. My guess is: precious few.


Believing that every particularly strong or weak playoff performance is a function of psychology requires ignoring these not unimportant facts:

1. Playoff games are all played after a full 162-game schedule. Some players might be tired. Or hurt. Others, recovered.
2. Playoff games are often played in cold weather. Different players respond differently to cold.
3. Playoff games are disproportionally played in inclement weather that would postpone games in June. Some guys hate playing in rain.
4. Playoff games are all played against good teams. Players who feast on weak teams won't fare well.
5. Playoff games are important. Some guys are 100% focused all the time and gain no advantage during the postseason. Others might bear down more.

No one has ever suggested that Colby Lewis likes rain or focuses better against good teams or builds strength at the end of the season. (Cold weather wouldn't have much impact on Lewis. Three of his four starts prior to tonight were in Tampa and Dallas.) These are all as plausibly true and as unprovable as the "clutch" assumption, but they are dismissed without being considered.

As long as baseball "analysts" are allowed to spout cock-eyed theories without being required to support them with evidence or defend them against contradictory data, we'll continue to hear this dreck. Next time you hear it, at least yell at your TV, "Bull! Prove it!"
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