22 November 2016

Infrequently Asked Questions

You have questions? I have answers. Some of them are even right answers.

These are the questions baseball fans have been sending my way lately:

Q. Can the Indians return to the World Series next year?
A. Which is to say, can they make the playoffs? Fo' shizzle. Their two injured starters return to join my Cy Young pick, Cory Kluber, and Trevor Bauer is poised to take the next step. They lose Mike Napoli's bat but add by subtraction in the field. If Michael Brantley can return to anything like his 2015 self in 2017, and Lindor, Naquin and Ramirez avoid catastrophic sophomore slumps, they could be even better. With the Royals, White Sox and Twins reeling, only the Detroits have the stuff to challenge Believeland.

Q. When does the Yankees' rebuild pay off?
A. Sooner than any of us want it to. They very likely have the best Minor League system in baseball today, and that's even after Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird made The Show.

Q. Should the Mets sign Yoenis Cespedes?
A. It's not my money, so sure! The Amazins can hurl with anyone, particularly with Gsellman in the mix and a potential Wheeler bounce-back, but they have fewer bats than an aquarium. Getting Neil Walker back is nice, but the Mets had better sign someone who can thump or the fans will be doing the hurling. They can sign Cespedes for some gargantuan contract that he won't be worth, once again playing three left fielders in their outfield. But who's the alternative -- DH Edwin Encarnacion? DH-in-waiting Jose Bautista?

Q. Which is the worst team in baseball next year?
A. i wouldn't bet against the Reds.

Q. What should the Jays do about their two big free agents?
A. Toronto is in a pickle. Lose Bautista and Encarnacion and there go 70 home runs out the door. Each is expecting the kind of deal that could sink a team as they age poorly. The Blue Jays are too good to punt and too smart to bankrupt the future on a 36-year-old defensive liability. I think the brass are hoping the market for Bautista cools and they can reclaim him for a reasonable amount.

Q. Is Andrew McCutchen over?
A. Boy, that would be precipitous -- from the game's most dynamic player to replacement level in one year. Regression to the mean suggests he'll be a 3-4 win player next season -- very good, but not the 'Cutch we knew. After that he's 31.

Q. How good can the Mets be next season? They were ravaged by injuries in '16 but overperformed; could they get a lot better and win fewer games in '17?
A. Depends on the sticks. The lineup they have today couldn't beat O'Neil's Texaco from the Bay Village Little League. They need to find some lumber, whether from inside the roster or plucked off another one. Add some scoring to 140 starts out of deGrom, Syndergaard, Gsellman, Harvey, Wheeler and Matz, and they're a serious World Series contender.

Q. Is there anyone on the free agent wire who can help my Orioles pitching staff?
A. Zippo, zilch, nada, nuttin, nil. Rich Hill's the best moundsman out there and he's 37 with 24 good starts in his pocket.

Q. Are we forgetting about Buster Posey?
A. Who? His output dipped 50 points of OPS in his age 29 season but he's still an above-average hitter with mad framing skills who was worth four wins to the Giants. He's a Hall of Fame argument, depending on how he ages, and still one of the best receivers in the game. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .300 next year with a bump in home runs and 5+ wins of value.

Q. Who is the most under-rated player in baseball?
A. There are two variables in that question, one of which is, how is a particular player "rated." For the past two years I've touted Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich. The low-key 24-year-old has a Gold Glove, a Sliver Slugger and a .293/.368/.483 batting line over a three-and-a-half year career. 

Q. Didn't Ian Kinsler sort-of get his wish?
A. When the Rangers flipped him to Detroit for Prince Fielder before the 2014 season, Kinsler called GM Jon Daniels a "sleazeball" and wished a 0-162 record on Texas. Since then, he's added 18 wins and a division title to the Tigers, but Texas has won its division each of the last two seasons, even as injuries ended Fielder's career prematurely. So assuming Kinsler hates the Rangers and not Prince Fielder, all he has is the satisfaction that his side got the better of the deal.

Q. What can we reasonably expect from Gary Sanchez in 2017?
A. Not that. Fangraphs projects .268/.329/.490 with 26 home runs and four wins against replacement. Pretty good for $540,000.

Q. It felt like Terry Francona out foxed Joe Maddon in the World Series. Why does everyone love Maddon?
A. For all the right reasons. He's smart and open to new ideas. His players love playing for him. He keeps it light over 162 games. He knows his players and never panics. That said, I agree that Tito did a great job of matching his limited assets -- most notably Cory Kluber and Andrew Miller -- against the Cubs' deep vein of talent. 

Q. I can't decide whether Hal Steinbrenner is a better owner than his father. George was a lunatic but his teams won.
A. That's not technically a question, frequently asked or otherwise. It's a different time now. George could bully the rest of baseball then in a way Hal can't today. New York enjoyed advantages -- not just financial-- that pre-dated the luxury tax, shared revenue and a social media landscape that makes anywhere the center of the media world depending on who's Tweeting. George's brand of insanity would be a colossal failure today.

Q. You made it pretty clear that you think Donald Trump is a sociopath. What policies of his are you rooting for?
A. My problem with Trump is not partisan;  who even knows where he stands on the issues? The problem is he's a despicable human being who remains willfully ignorant of the job he sought. Replacing the Affordable Care Act and enforcing some fiscal discipline would be welcome developments, though I have zero faith he will accomplish either.

Q. What is ahead for Bryce Harper? He was the world's best player in 2015 and then hit .243 last year.
A. Almost no one's career progresses in a straight line. Harper appeared to be dinged up last year, yet he managed a .373 OBP, 24 homers and three wins against replacement. His 2015 might have been a one-off, but Fangraphs projects a big bounce back for him, particularly in the power department.

Q. What do the Cubs do if Jason Heyward continues to suck?
A. The only thing that's certain is that they'll keep paying him through 2023.

Q. Where does Aroldis Chapman land and for how much?
A. Are we assuming he's chasing the cash? Word is he and the Yankees are courting.

Q. Am I crazy or is this Hot Stove season shaping up as the worst ever? The free agent crop is garbage.
A. The free agent crop is mostly garbage. As for your mental health, you should see a professional.

Q. Who is going to be the best free agent pickup this winter?
A. Ian Desmond? Versatile defenders with broad skill sets tend to have high floors, and speedsters tend to age well. Plus he's good looking and of uncertain ethnicity.

That's enough for now. Keep those cards and letters coming. And try to put the questions in question form.

18 November 2016

The Mike Trout Award

Congratulations to the AL MVP Award for winning Mike Trout in 2016. 

The best player on the planet doesn't need another MVP designation, or the three other MVPs he earned but failed to procure because writers don't always understand logic.

Mike Trout is already a Hall of Fame candidate at age 25, with more lifetime wins against replacement than Hall of Famer Jim Rice, who toiled for 11 more seasons than Trout has so far played.

Trout is only the third player in baseball history to finish in the top three in MVP voting five consecutive years (joining Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds) and the first ever to do it in his first five seasons. 

No, Trout is in Greatest of All Time territory without MVP awards. But the MVP award was in serious jeopardy of losing its relevance if it had once again failed to attach itself to the transparently best player in the world. Debates over "value" are pedantic and vapid in the face of Mike Trout's prowess and were pushing the MVP award dangerously close to occupying the space currently held by the Miss America Award, the vice presidency and the AFC South champion.

Congratulations, AL MVP award, for winning Mike Trout. And saving yourself.

16 November 2016

The Brand New Geriatric Braves

The last place Braves just aged 85 years, inking geriatric pitchers Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, and forking over $20 million in the process. That has led some to wonder if their heads are screwed on straight.

Oh they're on straight all right, and looking ahead. The Braves are telling their fan base that 2017 won't be their year. But keep an eye out for 2018.

Why would a rebuilding squad offer a contract to a 42-year-old in decline and a 43-year-old with weight issues? Because pitchers that age gleefully sign one-year deals, and the Braves need a bridge year to develop their young mound talent. 

Colon and Dickey will give way to the next generation of hurlers, but not until they young dudes are ready. Until then, Colon and Dickey join 25-year-olds Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz in the rotation, with 24-year-olds Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler duking it out for the fifth starter spot.

For the past four seasons, Dickey has been a below-average starter and Colon a mixed bag that could pop at any moment. But as long as they eat innings, the non-contending Braves don't care. Perhaps the pair will teach the young lads a thing or two about life in the Bigs while they're at it.

In the process, Colon aims to become the winningest Dominican pitcher ever, with 11 Ws to pass Juan Marichal's 243. He and Dickey will become the second pair of 42-year-olds in baseball history (after Phil Neikro and Gaylord Perry with the '81 Braves) to start 10 games each -- if they make it.

It's another step in Atlanta's rebuild, which has proceeded at a faster pace than that of several other bottom feeders, like Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona and Philadelphia. In the meantime, the team's supporters can enjoy their new billion-dollar stadium in the suburbs.

11 November 2016

The NL Cy Young -- Grab Your Aspirin

Choosing 2016's best pitcher in the American League was a matter of dicing the available information. Do you more heavily weigh ERA or FIP? Which is more important, WHIP or K/BB? That kind of thing.

The problem with choosing the Cy Young winner in the NL is more one of philosophy. Does the Cy Young go to the best pitcher or the most valuable? Because it's pretty clear who the best pitcher in the world is, and was this season, when he pitched. At 12-4, 1.69, and a 15.64 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Clayton Kershaw is the universe's grand poobah of the mound. That's as obvious as a hurricane.

But Kershaw made only 21 starts this year, succumbing to injury for all of July and August. During those two months, he contributed a grand total of nothing to the Dodgers.

How do you compare that to, say, Max Scherzer, who went 20-7, 2.96 in 100 more innings than Kershaw?

Or to Kyle Hendricks, who bolted from the bottom of the Cubs' stacked rotation to lead the league in ERA, with a 16-8, 2.13 line? He allowed half-a-run more per game than Kershaw, but hurled 70 more innings.

The Crowd of Great Starters
In total, eight starters limited their opponents to fewer than three earned runs per game. That's a fat list of names to consider and it leaves off the likes of Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez and Julio Teheran. Among them are legitimate Cy candidates Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 in 202 innings), Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60 in 184 innings), Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 in 227 innings) and the special case of Jose Fernandez (16-8, 2.86 in 182 innings before his death, and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings.)

Lester benefited from the great Cubs infield and Syndergaard from Citi Field. Bumgarner and Fernandez were a hair less impressive than the top three candidates, particularly if you discount hitting for MadBum and sentiment for Fernandez. Kudos also to Tanner Roark and Johnny Cueto for superb seasons, but not ultimately Cy Young quality this year.

So my top three are Hendricks, Kershaw and Scherzer. Let's consider them.

Parsing the Top Three
Because Hendricks played in front of the best infield in the Majors, he could record outs more often than other pitchers without fanning opponents. The advanced stats say Hendricks' ERA was heavily polished by the awesome defensive cast in Chicago.

Kismet smiled on Scherzer's ERA also, but unlike Hendricks he was a horse, leading the league in workload. He led pitchers in wins against replacement, because while Hendricks sat on the bench while a reliever finished the job and Kershaw sat in the clubhouse rehabbing, Scherzer was still on the hill, mowing down batters. 

Scherzer was the most valuable pitcher in the NL this year.

Ultimately, It's The Claw
But here's the thing: Despite missing all that time, Kershaw earned just half-a-win less against replacement than Scherzer. His output was so spectacular, and so transcendent, that he was still the second most valuable pitcher in the league, despite missing a third of the season.


That's why I would vote for Clayton Kershaw for Cy Young. He was simply the best pitcher, by a country mile, in the NL.

Max Scherzer, for his sustained excellence, earns my #2 vote and Kyle Hendricks #3. The ERA is gaudy, but peek behind the curtain and you do see some duct tape and bailing wire.

If your philosophical bent is more in the direction of value, put Scherzer's name on your metaphorical ballot (or real one, if you are honored with a vote.) More than any other NL pitcher, he took the ball every fifth day and gave his team a chance to win. Clayton Kershaw? He won games almost by himself.

08 November 2016

The AL Cy Young Conundrum

Remember what an easy call the two MVP races are? Kris Bryant and Mike Trout are far and away the most valuable players in their leagues this year.

But good golly Miss Molly are the Cy Young competitions a quagmire. Depending on how you slice it, one person's ripe fruit is another person's rind. 

Taking a gander at the junior circuit first, there are a bevy of candidates.  

Rick Porcello went 22-4, 3.15 for the Red Sox, with a league-leading 6-1 strikeout-walk rate.  

J.A. Happ, in his season of redemption, earned a 20-4, 3.18 line, though the advanced stats give his Toronto defense a lot of the credit.  

Justin Verlander bounced back to 16-9, 3.04,  and the AL's lowest WHIP and highest pitching WAR. 

The Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka owned a 14-4, 3.07 resume despite a relatively low strikeout rate. 

And Chris Sale, for all the drama of his season in Chicago, pitched to a line of 17-10, 3.34 and completed a league-leading six games.

Verlander's year was stealthy-great. He paced the league in strikeouts and and hurled a healthy 227 frames. The advanced stats say his ERA was partially a figment of defense and ballparks. I award him the bronze medal.

Porcello really shined and would get my second place vote. The advanced stats like him but he's a little light on whiffs, which is the one thing a pitcher can claim nearly total credit for. 



For my money, the best pitcher in the AL was Cleveland's Corey Kluber. At 18-9, 3.14, he didn't lead the league in anything  but was among the best at everything. He anchored the Tribe's killer rotation, pitching a lot innings with an excellent K-BB ratio, a low WHIP and more strikeouts than frames. The advanced stats love him, giving him their highest grades. The playoffs aren't considered for this, but they certainly vindicate this choice.

What's that you say? One of the others is your guy? Go for it. There's no credible argument against any of the pitchers named here.

Just please, don't talk to me about Zach Britton. The guy was a horse out of the Oriole pen, with an 0.54 ERA and 47 saves. He deserves the Rolaids Relief Award, unless Andrew Miller steals it. But the dude pitched a grand total of 67 innings -- one at a time, and that's just a quantum leap easier than throwing six frames each time out. Meausring him against starters is an apples and zebras comparison.

That's not a knock on Britton. Over the last three years, he's thrown 209 innings -- about a full year for a starter. Batters have touched him up for a 1.38 ERA and 0.9 WHIP. In that one year's worth of pitching he earned nine wins against replacement -- roughly MVP level. He's a stud, but so is Mike Trout. And neither one deserves the Cy Young.

06 November 2016

The Biggest Game of All

Here's the situation in the critical game on Tuesday:

Your team is among the league's best, despite lousy pitching that could sink its playoff chances. You need a new arm in the rotation.

You could bring up that guy from Triple-A, the one with the 5.38 ERA, questionable work habits and dubious make-up. Last time he was up, he made a mess of things.

Or you could insert into the rotation a professional carnival barker who has never thrown a pitch in his life. He wants to put the glove on his penis and won't listen to the professionals who tell him how to use it correctly. 

The carny says he's going to make a touchdown against Mike Trout. He insulted the manager's wife. He promises to get on the mound and flip the bird to the fans, maybe punch the kid in the front row.

Some of the front office people want the nutcase-- he'll shake things up. He's bold. Fresh blood. He'll make the team great again.

Sure, you understand their frustration, but the team is already pretty good. Besides, the guy thinks your team's problem is that it doesn't score enough goals. He offers confidence without ability. Everyone in the league hates him, including many of his would-be teammates.

The front office guys who want the clown say your triple-A pitcher stinks -- he's just as bad. You might as well try the other guy.

But the Triple-A guy is not just as bad because at least he's a baseball player. The other guy is a mentally ill circus employee.

Then one of the seamheads in the basement office observes that those aren't your only choices. There's a guy, for example, in Double-A who doesn't bring heat but has nice secondary pitches. Good command. Great make-up. A much better alternative than the bum and the lunatic. Why not bring him up?

They're deadlocked and so they come to you, the owner. It's your choice. 

What will you decide?


02 November 2016

Why the Tribe Has To Win in Seven

If you can believe in momentum -- that magic spirit that predicts the past -- I can believe in karma. This is the karma World Series, where good is triumphing over evil and the tortured will have their suffering eased.

If I'm reading the gods right, the Tribe must triumph in seven, not six or five. Or if it's God, the loving and righteous God who gave us baseball in the first place, surely He, in his infinite wisdom, even more infinite than a pitching change, must want a Series this year that comforts the afflicted most, which is a seven-game variety.

It's the least they, or He, could do, considering the abomination that will be visited upon Americans next Tuesday. 

The Cubs and their long, long-suffering supporters have already tasted victory and redemption. They have won their first pennant and competed in their first World Series in 71 years. There is joy in Chicago radiating across the nation even if they succumb in the championship.

The Indians have been here twice before in recent years and come away empty, most notably in 1997 when the taste of victory was on their tongues before it dribbled off the (Joe) Table. For them to find redemption requires a dogpile and a parade, just like LeBron and crew enjoyed.

So karma favors the Tribe, but why seven games? Here's why:

With Cleveland up 3-1, a quick Indians victory would have swept back the ill winds and extended the hardship of the unfortunate. Getting wiped out of the World Series suggests the Cubs remain lovable losers, which, given this roster and its expectations, is no longer lovable. On the other hand, clawing back with their season in the balance  before the home fans in their cathedral in Game 5, and then again in Game 6 on the road, shows this young squad's toughness, resilience and heart. 

Which sets them up perfectly for the moral victory necessary when they lose Game 7 to the plucky, duct-taped Tribe. The upshot: the suffering is completely erased in Cleveland; and a goodly part of the pain is expunged in Chicago where they can feel good about how they fought when they were down. 

Making America great again. Because of baseball. And karma.

Then it's wait 'til next year for real on the North Side, with a team that will once again enjoy favored status. Good karma all around, thank God.

Or gods, whichever the case may be.

Addendum: Well, there's no such thing as karma. And there's still no such thing as momentum.