We Interrupt This World Series to Talk MVP

Discussing the season's MVP awards while the World Series is underway is like examining NFL draft positions during Super Bowl week. Except worse, because the Super Bowl is silly while the World Series is important.

Nonetheless, we venture, largely because the two MVP awards are easy picks. Here, choose your guy:

Player A: .318 BA, 31 HR. 26 of 30 steals. Great defense, corner outfield.
Player B: .315 BA, 30 HR. 30 of 37 steals. Very good defense up the middle.

Pretty even, right? Now add this:
Player A: 49 walks, .363 OBP
Player B: 116 walks, .441 OBP

Oh, and this:
Player A: great hitting home park, surrounded by sluggers.
Player B: average hitting home park, lousy lineup around him.

It's becoming a no-brainer, right? Player A, with a 131 OPS+ (31% better than average) and 9.6 WAR is a stud. Player B, with a 174 OPS+ and 10.6 WAR is the league's MVP.

So it's agreed: MIke Trout is the MVP over Mookie Betts and it's not terribly close.

In the NL, the MVP didn't hit .300 or lead the league in OBP, slugging, home runs or RBI. He isn't the best defensive player. He's simply top 10 in everything with a special bonus to boot. 

So while Daniel Murphy was a revelation at the plate, and led the league in OPS, he's a liability in the field. Joey Votto's OBP led the NL, but his defensive value is limited as a first baseman. Nolan Arenado paced the circuit in homers (again) and makes batters cry with his defense, but the offense must be tempered by his home park (Denver.)

Kris Bryant is your MVP. His OPS is fourth in the league, he smacked 39 home runs and he's a whiz in the field. Plus, he offers Joe Maddon valuable defensive flexibility, logging solid innings at the hot corner, the two corner outfield spots and even first base. His WAR (7.7) is a full win ahead of anyone else's.

In olden times (last decade) Murphy would have swept the award for his big offensive stats and his position on the field. David Ortiz might have done the same in the AL. We know better now the true cost of their poor (or non-existent) defense, and recognize the players who actually deserve it.

The Cubs' Chances of Winning the World Series

If you saw the post-game interview with Corey Kluber after last night's Game 4 win for Cleveland, you got a taste of why he's in the running for his second AL Cy Young. Not that a wicked arsenal of pitches isn't useful, but Kluber demonstrated poise, equanimity and perspective that have to help on the mound during a tense three-hour battle.

Behold his response to a question about winning the series following Game 4:

“I think we like the position we’re in, but the task isn’t done yet. We still have one more game to win, and we’re going to show up tomorrow and play with the same sense of urgency we’ve played with until this point. We don’t want to let them build up any momentum and let them get back in the series.”

It's an uphill fight for the Cubs, certainly. If each game is a tossup, the Cubs' 12.5% chance of winning the next three games for the championship is less than the odds that an ignorant troglodyte sociopath will be our nation's next commander-in-chief. So that's pretty sobering.

But the point is, they don't have to win three games; they only have to win the next one. Then their chances double, and the series offers them a day off and a new opportunity.

The World Series isn't anything like over, as Kluber notes. You'd rather be in his position than Chicago's, but a couple of timely hits in the next two games could change all that.

Is an Outfield Bobble Worth 34 Home Runs?

There's talk today that Indians manager Terry Francona wants to get Carlos Santana's bat into the DH-less lineup and so will play him in left field in Game 3 tonight.

Not!

It's not Santana's bat that gets into the game by virtue of his placement in left field. It's Mike Napoli's.

You see, Santana is no worse a first baseman than Napoli, which is damning with the faintest of praise. Neither of these guys is Keith Hernandez. But Santana's a better hitter, and so without a DH Napoli would have sat and Santana would have manned the cold corner.

But the pair crushed 68 home runs this season, something that might be useful on a windy night in the Friendly Confines.

So Santana and Napoli will certainly get six trips to the plate tonight, probably eight and maybe more.

In exchange, there might (or might not) be a ball or two that challenges Santana in left field, one that Brandon Guyer or Coco Crisp might have corralled, or cut off, or played better in some other way.

From Francona's standpoint, it's not much of a tradeoff. You put the bat in the game every time.

Cubs, Wait 'Til Next Year

It's the most satisfying World Series match-up I can remember.

I loved the Angels-Giants of '02, a pair of franchises that had not won a championship in their cities.  White Sox-Astros of '05 thrilled because Houston had never seen a dogpile and the South Siders had last stood atop the baseball world in 1917.

Of course, the ending of the curse in Boston in '04 was special, mostly because of the ALCS comeback against the hated Yankees. But that World Series was something of an anti-climax.

Last year's Royals-Mets Series gave us a pair of distinct styles, not to mention long-suffering fan bases. That my team prevailed was extra special.

With the Cubs and Indians, what's exciting is not just that one fan base or the other will revel in the first World Championship of its lifetime. It also feels like the two best teams are competing for the title. The Cubs won eight more games than everyone else despite cruising home the last third of the season.

In the AL, the three division champs  won roughly the same number of games, but the metrics suggested the Rangers were something of a fluke. Boston and Cleveland were the contenders for best AL squad, and despite a pitching staff depleted by unfortunate injuries, the Tribe dominated the division series between them before dispatching Toronto with relative ease.

In the Words of Tom Hanks, Go Tribe!
And now, despite the 108-year wait for the Cubs, I hope Cleveland takes the title. Why? Because the Cubs, with their immense youth, talent and deep pockets, really can wait 'til next year. Their team stays intact, Kyle Schwarber returns and they can always add a free agent -- if they can find a weakness. How much worse will it be for North Side fans if their nine breaks a 109- or 110-year old curse?

The Indians, on the other hand, have caught lightning in a bottle. Their future is much more murky.  Youngsters Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin and Jose Ramirez have shocked us with their play, but can they keep it up? What if their two injured starters aren't the same after this year?They can't get by on a rotation of Cory Kluber and a Bunch of Goobers. It just feels like a shakier foundation there.

Cleveland should be formidable next year, regardless, but there is so much more uncertainty with them. So I'd like to see them win the World Series in a dramatic seventh game, and then watch the Cubs return next season to take the title.

At least that's how it would happen if I were writing the screenplay.

It's Over: There's No Way the Cubs Lose to the Dodgers*

The Cubs go back to Wrigley with a 3-2 lead after winning two of three in L.A. So the series is over. After all:

• The Cubs have never lost a 3-2 lead in an NLCS when returning home for games 6 and 7.*

*Cough - Bartman - Cough

• Clayton Kershaw. the Dodgers Game 6 starter, can't win in the postseason.*

*His Game 2 shutout in this series not withstanding.

• The 103-win Cubs never lost two games in a row this season.*

*Except for the 19 times they did.

• The home team has a big advantage.*

*Having lost three of the five games so far in this series.

• The Dodgers aren't going to win two elimination games against a great team.*

*The way they did against the Nationals a week ago.

• The Cubs get a huge pitching mismatch in Game 7 with Cy Young incumbent Jake Arrieta against journeyman Rich Hill.*

*Hill won the first match-up between them 6-0.

• The Cubs have momentum.*

*Which they had after Game 1, before losing the next two. Which the Dodgers had after Game 3 before losing the next two.

• Chicago is a team of destiny.*

*Unless they're not.

Imagining Cubs Vs. Indians

Let your mind consider the delicious possibility of Indians vs. Cubs.

• The 108-year curse vs. the 68-year drought. To anyone under 75, it's the same thing.

• Terry Francona vs. Theo Epstein. The Hall-bound strategist vs. The Hall-bound strategist. The battle of the 86-year-old '04 curse killers.

• Yankee trade deadliner Aroldis Chapman vs. Yankee trade deadliner Andrew Miller.

• The pitiful fans of the Browns vs. the pitiful fans of the Bears.

• The city of Jordan's Bulls vs. the city of LeBron's Cavs.

•  The team of destiny vs. the team no one expected.

Dodgers, nothing personal, but please get out of the way.

What We've Learned From the Playoffs So Far

Nothing.

No really, we haven't learned a thing.

The playoffs are a lottery. A five-game series at a particular moment in time doesn't tell us anything about the two teams that are competing, unless the Chicago Cubs are playing O'Neil's Texaco, my winless Little League team.

The Indians deserve credit and congratulations for defeating Toronto in the ALCS. Terry Francona earned his master's degree in Pitching Strategy and the bullpen delivered like an obstetrician. But Cleveland, now down to one reliable starter, can't claim a superior rotation to Toronto's quartet of Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada, and it can't claim bigger boppers than the Blue Jays'.

But when speedster Coco Crisp hits home runs and rookie Ryan Merritt, he of 11 Major League innings, pitches shutout ball, it vividly demonstrates what a roll of the dice a handful of games is.

By the same token, what can we possibly deduce from Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist becoming Sandy Koufax -- the hitter -- for the playoffs? It's all of seven games at this writing, three of which involving Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw.

We're down to three teams, one of which will win the World Series, and there's two chances in three they'll erase a multi-generational curse while they're at it. It'll serve to spark a dogpile, quench a fan base and add to jewelry collections.

It just won't prove a thing.

The Wild Card Kerfuffle Over A Closer

The controversy over Buck Showalter leaving his unhittable reliever in the bullpen with Baltimore's Wild Card elimination game against Toronto hanging in the balance reminds me of the dust-up in MLB's inaugural Wild Card game between Atlanta and St. Louis.

In that contest, a highly questionable infield fly call cost the Braves a bases-loaded rally in the eighth inning of a game they ultimately lost 6-3.

In that contest, the Braves didn't lose because of one infield fly rule, as was pointed out convincingly here. They lost because they made three infield gaffes and stranded a dozen runners.

Similarly, the Orioles' loss can't be laid at the feet of their skipper for mis-managing his pen. While it's hard to defend Showalter's determination to husband Zach Britton -- season ERA 0.54 -- for a save situation, that had less to do with their defeat than producing four base runners in 11 innings did.

The O's lived and died by the home run all year and Tuesday it served as their post-season hemlock. The Jays were the better team anyway and now we'll see what they can do in the playoffs.

Great World Series Matchups I'd Like to See

For years, baseball fans fantasized about a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. It would be the Futility Series -- 86 years for one fan base and 100+ years for the other since the last championship.

Sadly, David Ortiz and his band of self-styled morons shot that to pieces in 2004 and then again in 2007 and 2013. Boston is no longer the land of near misses but the annoying home of multi-sport titles. 

That is no longer the World Series I want to see, especially if the band from Boston were to emerge victorious.My main criterion for rooting, if I don't have a horse in the field, is to cheer for the longest-suffering.

So for me, the marquee match-up now is Chicago vs. Cleveland. The Indians have not won the World Series in nearly 70 years, which means whichever team would emerge from that series would be quenching a multi-generational thirst. Moreover, like the Cubs, the Indians have been relentlessly pathetic during the long drought.

In truth, the Cubs against anyone is the dream World Series this year, but wouldn't the drama be heightened if they faced Texas, which has never won a World Series, than Baltimore, which has gone 33 years without a title, but has plenty to admire from its past? I'd say, at least a little.

My next favorite match-up is the Rangers and Nationals, two teams that have never won a World Series. Texas is the former Washington Senators, so some old-timers could admire that.  A Texas-San Francisco tilt would reprise the 2010 World Series, but the excitement would depend on the Rangers exacting revenge. I'm plenty tired of the Giants. Give some other fan base a chance.

How about the Nationals and Orioles in a Beltway Battle? I'd find that intriguing and so would much of the nation's capital, but would the rest of the country care? Padre fans, wanna weigh in on that one? Either one of you?

If the Blue Jays and Nationals squared off we would be pitting Canada's only team against Canada's former team, as Washington emigrated from Montreal. I wonder if any Expo fans now root for the Nats.

How about a 30th anniversary edition of the Mets and Red Sox, with Mookie Wilson throwing out the first pitch? Bill Buckner could set up as backstop and let it roll between his legs.

The Amazing Mets of 2016 taking on the Orioles -- would that wake the echoes of 1969 at all? I think we're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now.

The truth is that any World Series not involving the Giants or Red Sox would pit two long-starved fan bases. Among the Mets, Nats, Dodgers, Cubs, O's, Jays, Tribe and Rangers, the most recent champion is the 1993 Blue Jays, 23 years ago. That's a full generation of fans who have never seen their team win. Can you imagine Vin Scully in the Fox booth calling the ninth inning of game 7 with the Dodgers playing? It would be like going to heaven without dying.

And that said, a Red Sox appearance would place Big Papi on the big stage one more time, following the greatest retirement season in horsehide history. I'd like to see him take his hacks against Clayton Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of this generation.

Okay, let's get it started. My mouth is watering.

Just When We Were Writing Off Those Goofy Seamheads...

It's been fun in recent years to malign the SABR eggheads for their silly attempts to guess the final standings at season's start. I post the Baseball Prospectus projections at the start of every season with a healthy dose of disclaimer.

So just when the ridicule was reaching a critical mass, they nailed it.

Take a look at this. It's the BP projection for the AL East throughout the course of  the 2016 season. You'll notice that, other than flipping Baltimore and Tampa, a not unreasonable mistake, they had the  division pretty dead-on.

Notice how little the Red Sox (in red, duh) wavered from being the favorite on Opening Day. For a couple of days there in late June they slipped beneath the Orioles as Baltimore began pulling away from the division. Then in August the Blue Jays surged ahead, as they did in the actual standings. But Boston always enjoyed high odds of making the playoffs. And BP's number crunching system came to the conclusion by June that the Rays and Yankees were toast.

I won't impose the rest of these projection graphs on you. You can find them here. (That's the AL East you'll see, but you can toggle for each division as you like.) Suffice to say that BP correctly identified the Indians as the best team in the Central, briefly credited the White Sox for their early-season heroics and never gave Detroit much of a chance, even as they bore down on the Wild Card,

In the NL East, BP knew it was a two horse race between New York and Washington, and gave Atlanta and Philadelphia zero chance of earning a slot. Well okay, didn't we all.

And sure, the Cubs were a shoo-in, but it's interesting that BP was squirrely about St. Louis and totally unimpressed with Pittsburgh as far back as April 1.

You might remember some of the adulation for Arizona's big moves in the winter, but BP saw through them, tabbing the Dbacks a 10-1 underdog to play deep into October. Their algorithms correctly tabbed the Dodgers as top dog and Giants as understudy.

Only in the AL West did BP create the mashup that educated guesses get you. At season's commencement, they credited Houston with a 68% chance of making the post-season, Seattle at 32%, the Angels at 25%, Oakland at 20% and lowly Texas least likely at 19%. The Rangers sport the Junior Circuit's best record while Anaheim and Oakland peed on themselves for six months. 

Still, five of the six teams they tabbed as "most likely" made the playoffs, with all but the decimated Mets winning their division. It's a pretty good showing that should quiet the critics like me -- until next season's projections.

The Braves are the New Pirates..Or Astros...or Whoever

It seems like a long time ago that the Atlanta Braves were a dumpster fire of Minor Leaguers and MLB castoffs. On July 24, the team had lost 66 of their 99 games, on pace to jettison their manager and finish with 104 losses, the most futile outfit in the sport.

Many of us recognized that Brave management had punted 2016 and were arranging their chips for 2017 or 2018, with the bloom still on their new suburban ballpark. In this space I had identified Cincinnati as the most hapless franchise because, while their Major League talent was slightly greater than Atlanta's, they seemed to lack a plan.

The Braves, on the other hand, simply appeared to be in Year One of the rebuild that had begun Year Two in Philadelphia, and that had recently paid dividends in Pittsburgh, Houston and elsewhere.

Turned Into a Newt, They Got Better
One thing about young talent: it has the capacity to learn and improve. By year's end, the Braves had nearly caught the Phaltering Phils, jumped over feckless teams in Minneapolis, San Diego, Cincinnati and St. Petersburg and moved within a half game of two other teams. Winners of 11 of their last 13, the Braves could have surpassed the records of seven MLB teams given another week of the season.

Deals of their tradeable commodities for future assets helped pave the way, giving the youngsters a free year to sharpen their craft, which they did. In the waning days of the season, they flipped a Minor League albatross for Matt Kemp, adding badly-needed power and a veteran leader for next season. 

With under-25 Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith joining Freddie Freeman and Kemp in next year's lineup, and with Julio Teheran anchoring a juvenile staff that benefits from a year of schooling under its belt, Atlanta has a chance to make some noise next year. They appear to have passed Philly in that department and have certainly left the Reds, Brewers, A's and others in the rear view mirror.

The End of Ryan Howard and the Evolution of Baseball Analysis

By the end of 2009, Ryan Howard had won a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and a World Series. He had smashed 45+ home runs and knocked home 136+ runners each of the past four seasons. Many was the number of fans who believed Howard, with the gaudy RBI totals, was Batman to Albert Pujols' Robin.

We laugh at that now, but it wasn't generally recognized as lunacy back then. Most fans were still swimming in the shallow end of the analysis pool, and because they didn't understand the new analysis that was transforming how we measured performance, they discounted it. Most baseball observers -- including baseball writers -- were still drinking the BA-HR-RBI Kool Aid, and treating fielding ability as nothing more than a tie-breaker.

A two-headed monster made us realize our folly. First, Howard's limited skills turned tail and abandoned him. After age 31, he never managed 30 home runs, 100 RBI or even a middling .320 OBP. Over the past five seasons, Howard has cost the Phillies 4.5 wins against replacement and led their slide into irrelevance.

After this season, the Phillies will pay Ryan Howard $10 million to go away. Thirty-seven-year-olds who can't hit for average or power, run, or play the field don't have many baseball suitors. If they did, I'd be getting Qualifying Offers.

We're On Board With TAv
And now, many baseball fans -- and even some writers -- speak the language of TAv, BABIP, OPS, WAR and their ilk. They understand that a walk is often as good as a hit, that fat helpings of luck can distort ordinary stats, and all the other new ideas that have infected the game.

Looking back, Baseball Reference reports that Howard was worth just 14 WAR over his four best seasons, partly because his glovework was so stony, and partly because he played home games in a launching pad. During that time, Pujols earned 28 WAR -- twice as much -- not only because he was a Gold Glove first baseman, but because he hit for a higher OBP than Howard and -- get this -- led the league in slugging three of the four seasons. A few extra home runs and RBIs on Howard's part couldn't make up for, well, everything else.

In that 2006 season when Howard took home Pujols' MVP award, Albert had a higher batting average, on base percentage and slugging average. He ran the bases better, struck out a third as often and caught 1.2 more balls hit per nine innings than Howard. (In case you're wondering, that's a seismic difference, like winning a 100 yard dash by 1.2 seconds.) Pujols was superior at everything -- except coming to bat with RBI opportunities.

As Ryan Howard bows out, we'll remember his big smile and the big bat he once wielded. And we'll remember some of the ridiculous things we believed about baseball but now better understand.