Stuck in the Middle With You: The NY Yankees

Remember when Brian Cashman was a sort of onomatopoeia? He was named for the main power source of baseball's Evil Empire.

That would make him Brian Conflictedman now. The Yankees are mired in Middle Earth, an elevator stuck between floors, an oxymoron in pinstripes -- whatever metaphor you prefer.

They're Old, Expensive and Mediocre
Their average age is as low as 32 only because of a handful of babes dragging down the mean. Their average performance is average, as befits a 24-25 record. Their upside is down; their downside is up; they are upside down.

Underdog is not coming to save the day. The farm system is, say it with me now, middling. (You were going with average. Tomato tomahto.) As incumbent teams ink their top hurlers to deals, there isn't any pitching on the free agent horizon. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are shaping up as the top names in free agency after this season. In any case, the Yankees are more than a player or two away.

The youngsters on the roster have mostly fizzled: Nova, Severino, Gregorious, Castro -- building on that base gives you the face pictured above.

Rebuilding? Fuggetabouit!
A selloff is untenable, which is just as well, because it's unthinkable. These are the Yankees after all. For once, their legend is a hindrance. What would they trade anyway? If you stuffed Sabathia, ARod, Texeira, Headley, Beltran and Ellsbury in a bag and threw them over the railing of the Circle Line cruise ship, no other team would fish them out, even if Cashman ate the contracts. Gardner, McCann and the relievers would fetch some second rate prospects, but the immediate results would be really ugly and the farm would still need a couple of years of seeding.


The Yankees are stuck in the middle. They have to cash in all their chips this year knowing they likely don't have a winning hand. Baseball Prospectus has their odds of making the playoffs -- including the play-in game -- at roughly one in six, last in the division. 

If they can pick up a starter and a reliable first or third baseman without crippling the future, they should and will. Otherwise they are stuck in the unenviable role of also-rans in both the present and the immediate future. How's it feel to be the Padres, New York?

Thor Losers In L.A.

So, according to National League umpires, throwing a retaliation pitch twelve feet behind a hitter's back is the same as burrowing it dangerously in his ribs.

As you may have heard, umpire Adam Hamari tossed Noah Syndergaard from a scoreless game in the third inning after Thor buzzed Chase Utley.
Utley, you may recall, sparked a rule change last year when he ended Reuben Tejada's post-season with a late takeout slide at second base. Ever since, Utley has been Pubic Enemy #1 in New York, even ahead of James Dolan.
 
It's no coincidence that the Dodgers abused the cobbled-together relief effort in a 9-1 win. Utley smacked two homers in the victory, including a grand slam to put the game away. 

The Larger Issue
The larger issue, though, is this: isn't this how we want pitchers to "retaliate"? Make some lame statement with a wild pitch and move on. Utley suffered no pain. No batter earned a free pass. No heads were hunted. Syndergaard's action put a period at the end of the retribution story.

Instead, the pitcher and manager got tossed, the Dodgers won a game unfairly and the Mets feel more aggrieved than before. 

Nice job, ump.

A Troubling New Trend: Trashing A Perfectly Good Stadium

I live in Charleston, SC, where history lives. We love our old buildings, and so, evidently, does the rest of America. The 300-year-old buildings are a draw for millions of tourists who grace our city.

I owned a house in Upstate New York that was born in the Depression, 63 years before I bought it. All the houses in the neighborhood were roughly the same age. Buildings can last for 100 years if properly maintained. Ask the Wrigleys and the Yawkeys.

Trashing A 20-Year-Old Building
In Arlington, TX, the baseball team has announced it will trash its ballpark for a new one, just 22 years after moving in. Unlike the Braves, who are abandoning their 24-year-old stadium for the suburbs, the Rangers hope to occupy a new, domed, air-conditioned home field nearby. 

Why? Is the current edifice decrepit, anachronistic or dysfunctional? No, it's a perfectly good baseball venue, enjoying the bloom of youth. Apparently they were not aware that it's hot in the summer in Dallas when The Ballpark at Arlington, as it was originally known, was built.

$1 Billion Investment for Something The City Already Has
The good people of Arlington shelled out $305 million (in 2016 dollars) for Globe Life and will bear the brunt of the $1 billion price tag for the new ballpark. City fathers and Rangers' brass will spin the accounting, but no matter how they fund the project, it's a massive new burden. The bonding authority or sales tax hike, or user fees employed to cover the cost can't be used to build schools, fix roads, invest in real economic development or anything else.

In the meantime, the old ballpark will be trashed and condos or somesuch will rise in its place, a waste of much of the original investment. At least the 30-year bonds were paid off early, or they'd be paying for a perfectly good baseball stadium while tearing it down.

A Disturbing Trend
It's their money, so folks around Dallas should allocate their dollars any way they want. But econometric studies have demonstrated that baseball stadiums, which host maybe 100 events a season, are rarely good financial investments for communities, even accounting for all the ancillary benefits beyond the sports team. And if you think Arlington's reputation would suffer without the ballclub, ask yourself this: is Arlington, TX now on your personal radar? 

Two teams have now made plans to ditch their home parks before they reached Mike Trout's age. This is a travesty of public policy. I hope it doesn't catch on.

Stuff Worth Noting in 2016

As of May 22...

After starting 25-6, the Cubs have gone 4-7. So shut up.

Bryce Harper had 31 walks. That's four fewer than . . . the entire Kansas City Royals roster.

Last year, Jon Jay managed five doubles one home run and no steals for the Cardinals. As of May 22 he had contributed 12 doubles, two steals and a homer for the Padres.

The Mariners have 18 road wins after 43 games. Last year they didn't get their 18^th road win until game 77.

Injuries limited Hunter Pence to nine homers and 40 RBI last year. He's at seven homers and 32 RBI already this season.

According to Baseball Prospectus calculations, the fifth, sixth, and seventh most valuable hitters on the Phillies are pitchers.

Through August 6th last year, Jackie Bradley had popped one pair of homers and a single double among his six hits. Now in a 26-game hitting streak, he has eight homers and 10 doubles among his 52 safeties. And we're two-and-a-half months from August 6th.

Cardinals rookie Jeremy Hazelbaker is four years older than Mike Trout, who is playing in his fifth season and has 149 home runs. 

Dee Gordon and AJ Pierczynski were stars last season. In 2016, Gordon is banned for 80 games. Pierzynski is hitting .211 without power.

Cameron Maybin hit .194/.313/.367 in a month of rehab games, then .600/.652/.750 in a week of Major League games.

Albert Pujols hit .312 or better for 10 straight years. He hit .244 last season and is at .221 this year.

The Phillies are six games over .500 despite being outscored by 31 runs. 

Tanner Roark won four games all last season and allowed 17 home runs in 111 innings. We're just in May of 2016 but he's already won three games and limited opponents to three homers in half as many innings.

Second basemen are outhitting left fielders this season by 28 points of OPS. That's a 78 point reversal of the norm.

Rockie Rookie Trevor Story was the big story in April with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored in April. In May, he's hit just two homers with 11 RBI and eight runs scored. Of course he's still the Story, but he's also still the story, because this month he's batting .313. Add it all together and annualize it: the 23-year-old shortstop is hitting .285-48-124 with 44 doubles, 16 triples and 108 runs scored. Quite a Story.

Dallas Keuchel (first in Cy Young voting last season), David Price (second), Sonny Gray (third) and Chris Archer (fifth) combined for a 2.71 ERA in 2015. They are at 5.70 today.

Some of this information came from Baseball Prospectus and Sports on Earth.

Who Has Invaded Mark Reynolds' Body?

For years, the Sheriff of Swattingham was also the Constable of Whiffshire. Mark Reynolds could be counted on to fan 200 times, swat 30+ homers and get within handshake distance of Mario Mendoza's batting average. 

The total package averaged out to a mediocre, if dangerous, hitter. Combined with weak defense at third, first and the outfield, Reynolds had become a below average player and has been losing playing time since 2012.

The big Virginian has meandered to Colorado, his seventh team at age 32, where they're plugging any body they can find into a last place roster. The thin air would seem to be the last place you'd want a guy who doesn't make a lot of contact.

Which is what Reynolds may have said to himself. And so, through a quarter of a season, he's been someone else.

To date, Reynolds is channeling -- I don't know, Rod Carew? He's slapping singles all over the yard, eschewing the long ball and holding his own at the cold corner. 

In 129 plate appearances so far, Reynolds has struck out just 36 times -- a mere trifle by the standards of a guy who fanned on 641 times in three seasons. He's hitting .330 -- 100 points above his lifetime mark -- with only two dingers. 

Playing less than fulltime, Reynolds is having his best season since '09 when he pounded 44 homers and swiped 24 bases. If necessity is the mother of invention, the necessity of extending a career that appeared to be waning has been the mother of Mark Reynold's reinvention.

In Praise of Bud Selig

The Baseball InterVerse is aflutter this week with doomsday discussion of the . . . Yankees. The questions being flitted about -- can their top prospects rescue the team, should they trade their veterans to restock the farm, are they the worst team in the American League -- have to be making Boss Steinbrenner spin furiously in his grave.

That's the New York Yankees we're talking about, lord overseers of the horsehide world. The franchise that has appeared in 40 World Series and won 27 of them, and earned playoff berths every season from 1995 to 2012.

It's the Evil Empire of baseball that flaunted the built-in advantages of the nation's largest market, its media capital and its massive financial power to bully its competitors.

The Drew Henson Case
Case in point: In 1998, the Yankees could afford to draft star Michigan quarterback and third baseman Drew Henson in the third round and sign him to first round money. Henson appeared headed to the NFL, but the opportunity to play for the flagship franchise enticed him to start in the minors.

After a year on the farm, the Yankees traded Henson to the Reds. He immediately packed his gear and announced his intention to attend Houston Texans training camp. Reluctantly, Cincinnati traded Henson back to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar and he immediately rescinded his departure.

That it all came to nothing in either sport -- he completed five NFL passes and had one big league hit -- is beside the point. The Yankees ruled the baseball world at every level not too long ago. Teams in "small" markets like, well, everywhere else, but certainly the likes of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Minneapolis and San Diego, could do little more than develop the players who would sign as free agents in the Bronx.

The World Is Upside Down
Today, all the Yankees' strength is reserved for holding up the AL East standings from the bottom. Their roster is decrepit, expensive and way past its expiration date. The promising pitchers like Nova, Tanaka and Severino don't seem to have panned out. The future is no longer now, or at least that's how it appears 40 games into 2016.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals are the World Champs and teams like the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, cash-strapped Mets, and Pittsburgh Pirates were all playoff teams in 2015. Everyone has a chance to compete every year. 

Your nose runs and your feet smell. The world is upside down.

Thank You, Bud
How did this happen? Hate the commissioner emeritus all you like, but this Bud's for us. Following the destructive lockout that cancelled the 1994 World Series, Selig was able to wrest some measure of control from the free-spending teams and institute brakes on franchise costs. The luxury tax, reinforced in subsequent negotiations, and the co-opting of revenue streams to MLB, like all the digital properties owned equally by the teams, has dramatically smoothed the revenue curves and negated much of the financial advantage that big market teams used to enjoy.

At the same time, the Internet has made it possible for top stars to shine from any home base. The entire slate of games is available to any American with the proper cable/satellite deal or with $150 for MLB-TV on their computer. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Manny Machado can enjoy superstar brand status from DC, Anaheim and Baltimore just the same as if they were standing right on Madison Avenue.

More money is still a useful tool, but the game is awash in it, from Phoenix to Cleveland and St. Petersburg to Denver. Today, if your team perennially stinks, it's not the market's fault, it's management's, even if they blame the manager and fire him.

And if they're perennially contending, thank the people running the franchise, and Bud Selig too. Even if you hate him for cancelling the World Series.

Joey Bat Flip and the Unwritten Rule

So let me see if I have this right:

Flipping your bat after hitting the winning homer in a critical playoff game: a crime against baseball.

Throwing a hardball 90 mph at a person's ribs: part of the game.

The first action is a demonstration of excitement. It is an outrage.

The second is the equivalent of felonious assault and battery. It's merely a plunking.

Flip your bat and there will be months of ill will and eventual retaliation.

Fire a fastball at a batter's head and there will be a warning. To both teams.

I understand. I just don't understand. 

David Ortiz Is Talking To Me

I wrote off David Ortiz's career after a hand injury sidelined him in '08 and robbed him of bat speed in '09.

I've written an open letter to him advising him to shut up.

I've justified the whispers about steroid use.

I've observed how his strict adherence to the DH role has a negative impact on his team's defense.

I've called him a fringe Hall of Famer.

And now, he's answering.

Big Papi's Retirement Tour follows a 2015 campaign in which he posted a .304 True Average. He blasted 37 homers and walked 95 times.

This year, at age 40, he's turned 2015 into a preview. He's on pace* to bat .320, slam 48 home runs and 76 doubles, for a .343 TAv.

* I feel like a doofus just writing those words. But you get the point.

For good measure, he's turned the Clutchalizer to 11. Twice last week he supplied the winning hit in the last inning. On Saturday, he tied the game in the 9th with a triple and won it in extras with a double. He had homered earlier in the game.

Ortiz has joined Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron as the only players in MLB history with 500+ homers and 600+ doubles. He'll likely pass Mickey Mantle in long balls.

And given the ball-crushing hijinx of the RSox, he has a chance to lead his charges to another World Series, or at least make some noise with the lumber in October.

It's as if Big Papi is advising me to shut up. Although in his case, it would be "shut the #@!$%! up, *&%$#@!.

It doesn't really change the equation: by the numbers, David Ortiz is a borderline case. But the narrative is pure Hall of Fame gold and it's getting more golden the more he demonstrates that he's leaving near the top of his game.

I have a new message for Big Papi: Okay, I'm convinced. You're a Hall of Famer.

Which Nice Teams Are Starting Out Naughty?

Welcome to Atlanta, where your 8-25 Braves stand as the 2016 poster boys for mortgaging the present. It's hard to believe now, but the Cincinnati Reds have to wish they were the Braves.

The Reds tried to play both ends against the middle two off-seasons ago and ended up getting toasted both ways. After a 76-86 campaign in '14, they unloaded their second and third best starters but left the rest of the team intact, en route to a 98-loss season.

Having flipped ace Johnny Cueto for some future chips at last year's trading deadline, GM Walt Jocketty sent Todd Frazier to Chicago for more prospect goodies this off-season. And that was it.

Hanging on to middling veterans like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce (getting tagged out, left) and Zack Cozart, he left Joey Votto and the Seven Dwarfs to compete this year against the likes of Pittsburgh, St. Louis and the Cubs. By failing to convert veterans into promising youth, the Reds lack the prospect-laden farm system that hints at a brighter future.

At least the residents of Marietta, Georgia have a future to look forward to.

Others Worthy of Relegation
In short, neither Atlanta nor Cincinnati is surprising anyone with their wretchedness so far this season. Nor are the Twins, who blinded themselves into a false sense of hope with a moment of incandescence last season, nor the Padres, a basket case of a different weave, nor the A's, whose management seems to have run out of ideas about how to convert trash into energy. The Brewers are sowing the bad karma that building around Ryan Braun reaps, not to mention a pitching staff of the following luminaries: Taylor Jungeman, Jimmy Nelson, Willy Peralta, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies.

Then there's the Angels, despite a gargantuan payroll and two inner-ring Hall of Famers, who can't buy a run and whose best starter, now that Garret Richards got laid up is...um...the smoldering ruins of Jered Weaver? Dude hasn't fanned a Major Leaguer batter since 2014.*

It's possible we'll see some dead cat bounce out of Minnesota this year, but that's about the best this pile of owl upchuck can hope for. The real question for these franchises is whether they are on the way up or the way down, or whether they even have a way.

One of These Things Is Not Like the Other
All that leaves us with one head-scratcher, the Houston Astros. If ever a team was tailor-made for a season in which runs are being scored off big flies, it's this ultimate three true outcome team. Houston finished second in homers and fifth in walks last season, and first in whiffs, with seven batters accumulating 100+ Ks, including Colby Rasmus and Chris Carter, who fanned more than 300 times between them. (They also led the league in steals. Go figure.)

They're doing it again this year -- first in strikeouts, first in walks and fourth in going yard. The problem for the Astros is that the guys throwing the most innings are their worst pitchers. Starters 1-4, including last year's Cy Young, have been scorched fora combined 4.87 ERA. Starters #5 and #6 rock a combined 2.48 ERA and the bullpen has neither added nor subtracted.

The all-or-nothing offense combined with a pitching rotation regressing well beyond the mean have spelled doom for Houston, but there is good news in both the immediate past and on the horizon. They've won seven of their last 11 in large part because scads of ill fortune foisted upon them in April is settling out in May. The Astros have played sub-.400 ball so far but Baseball Prospectus projects them to play .543 the rest of the way. Projection systems are for movie theaters, but at least this suggests that the underlying conditions are there for a real recovery.

The early bottom feeders really do appear to be the sport's worst, with one exception. But baseball is a funny game and five months is an awfully long time.

*mild hyperbole but his average pitch speed is 82.7, or roughly how fast I can spit.

Which Teams Don't We Trust

About a fifth of the way through the season we see some trends emerging at the macro level. The Cubs, Mets, Nationals, White Sox, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners have broken strong from the starter's gun. The Braves, Astros, Padres, Twins, A's, Angels, Brewers and Reds have all scuffled badly.

Thirty games is longer than a phase but too short to be definitive. We know that over that period, the cream and the sludge tend to find their way near the top and bottom respectively, but not always. An injury or a raft of weak individual performances can cripple a good team over 30 games while a soft schedule or a few hot bats can catapult an otherwise suspect team.

There are some surprises on those two lists. Which of the hot listers don't we have confidence in?

Recent history has told us never to count out Buck Showalter's Orioles. They have defied expectations and the odds several times in the 2010s. In a year of long balls, they are among the long balliest.

As I've mentioned before, the White Sox had more potential than people were giving them credit for coming into the season. They're fifth in the league in runs scored and first in runs allowed; the latter feels reasonable given the lineup but it's unlikely that Chris Sale -- much less Jose Quintana and Mat Latos -- will go all season without losing, especially as Latos needs to become acquainted with the strikeout.

The Nats, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox have so far exhibited truth in advertising. That leaves the Mariners, at 21-13 the leader in the AL West despite an upside-down charge out of the gate. Seattle, long a contingent of whiffle ball bats, is scoring the fourth most runs in the junior circuit. Their pitching has been even better, led by a lights-out bullpen and not by King Felix's paltry 1.5 K/BB ratio.

Relief pitching is notoriously subject to the winds, and after Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, there aren't a whole lot of everyday players you'd bet your Starbucks money on (unless you count Adam Lind and his three walks in 93 PA.) The AL West is up for grabs, especially with Houston's putrid start, but the Mariners are the best bet to collapse back into the pack.

Are the Cubs This Good?

The Chicago Cubs, everybody's choice for 2016's best team in baseball, promptly lost one of their top sluggers and consequently have skidded to a 25-6 record. Can they keep this up?

The obvious answer is no, no team is winning 80% of its games over a 162-game schedule. It's unlikely the Cubs win 25 in any other 31 game stretch this season.

That said, here's something else we know about a team that starts 25-6: it's not just a fluke. This is not only the best start for the franchise in 109 years, it's also a harbinger.

For one thing, the Northsiders have assembled a formidable roster on both sides of the ball. They've scored the most runs and allowed the fewest. Their run differential of +103 is not only 50 more than the next best team, it's more runs than the Braves have scored.

For another thing, mediocre teams don't win 25 of 31. That 1907 Cubs contingent? A not-too-shabby 107-45 and a World Series title. In fact, since 1936, eight teams have kicked off the season winning 24 of their first 30; seven of them made the World Series.

Is there anything that suggests this Baby Bear squad will fall back to the pack? Not with a young lineup, a veteran pitching staff, plenty of ready reserves on the farm, a top-3 manager and one of the best front offices in the game. 

But what Spring sows, Summer and Fall can burn. Joe Maddon has to navigate his team through 130 more games during which complacency and injury will be constant threats.

Luck Is Not the Residue of Design In Baseball or In Life

Branch Rickey famously said that "luck is the residue of design." Branch Rickey was a baseball man and luck is part of baseball so it's worth examination in a baseball blog.

You might have noticed that only lucky people make this statement. They want to take credit for their good fortune. Partisan politics aside, it's not possible to view the life of George W. Bush -- who screwed up in college, over-imbibed in alcohol and cocaine in his 30s, bankrupted two companies, got himself removed from a corporate board in his 40s and traded away young Sammy Sosa as president of the Texas Rangers -- without recognizing the immense power of luck. Had he been George Tree, instead of the rich scion of a politically connected family, it seems pretty obvious that he wouldn't have been accepted to Yale, installed as a corporate CEO, served on well-paying boards, been installed atop an MLB team or won election to the local zoning board, much less the presidency.

Indeed, luck and design are utterly independent. Good design can mitigate bad fortune and exploit good, but overwhelmingly bad luck will ruin all but the most adept. Even the best horse-and-buggy makers were put out of business by Henry Ford. 

Which brings us to baseball.

Tigers' third baseman Nick Castellanos, a lifetime .258 hitter, leads the American League in batting average so far this season at a .378 clip. No doubt he is hot: he's already pounded half as many home runs (7) as last year in a fifth as many at bats. He's also batting .449 on balls in play, even though the distribution of the balls he's hit is only marginally better than in the previous two seasons. 

In other words, Catellanos's grounders are dribbling through a hole. His lazy flies are dropping between charging fielders. His line drives are not getting snared. He has been lucky.

There's a fella named Pujols whose batting average (.183) is less than half of Castellanos's. He's not ripping as many line drives as Castellanos but he's killing many more worms, the kind of batted balls that metamorphose into singles at a high rate. Combine his relative turtle-speed with a snoozing patron saint of serendipity and Albert's hitting just .160 on balls in play. That's horrible luck.

Perhaps Branch Rickey would blame design, but Pujols has fanned half as many times as Castellanos, while walking twice as often. That suggests that Castellanos is just plain lucky. We should think twice, for example, before voting him to the All-Star team.

And while on average these trends will regress to middle ground, sometimes they fester all season. In 2002, Cubs infielder Jose Hernandez batted .404 on balls in play for no apparent reason en route to a .288 batting average and an All Star selection. He never again came within 50 points of OPS over a whole season and retired with a .252 batting average.

We can overcome bad luck and allow good luck to slip by unnoticed. But refusing to acknowledge its mighty influence is just silly.

Mike Trout Is About To Pass Nolan Ryan

Every month I attend presentations of my industry trade group's local chapter. Speakers come from out of town and often tell us what we already know but haven't been doing, at least not optimally. I often walk away with a renewed commitment to do some old thing better.

We should likewise check in now and then on the centrifugal force that is Mike Trout. Now in his fifth Major League season at age 24, Trout is #5 on the WAR chart for all who have worn the uniform of the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels of Anaheim, California. 

Or Is He Fourth?
Read fast, because by the time you are done, he might be fourth. He's a sliver of a win behind Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, who pitched eight seasons for the then-California Angels.

Or third. He's a larger fraction of a win behind Tim Salmon, whose entire 14-year career was spent with the club, first with California, then with Anaheim, and at the end with Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Being Mike Trout in 2016
Through May 4, Trout was hitting .317, slugging seven homers, sparkling in center field and accounting for about two wins against replacement. At the rate he's going he'll conclude the season in second place all-time among Angel players, leapfrogging Jim Fregosi along the way. It'll take a sixth campaign to overtake Chuck Finley for first place, but that's getting ahead of ourselves.

We don't want to gaze off into the forest and neglect appreciating the mighty redwood standing before us. Or maybe it should be the ocean and the mighty Trout.

Fire Fredi Gonzalez? Fire Robert E. Lee While You're At It

The 7-20 Atlanta Braves have run up the flagpole the firing of manager Fredi Gonzalez. His dismissal can't be too many losses away.

Gonzalez has presided over a pair of losing skids this season -- eight and nine games -- bracketing a four-game win streak. They have the worst record in the game, befitting the worst collection of talent in the sport.

This is nothing new. Gonzalez skippered last year's sinking ship, which crashed after the All-Star break on a 22-53 record. He helmed the 2014 squad that cratered to an 11-22 finish.

Good Guy. Bad Manager?
Gonzalez's friends and detractors alike acknowledge that he's a good guy, a loyal soldier and a mediocre tactician, not the worst but far from the best in the Majors. Braves' brass evidently thinks Gonzalez is a patient teacher because they re-upped him and his coaching staff midway through last season as their sell-off began.

The Braves are in a tear-down in preparation for their move to Marietta. They've sold off or let go Craig Kimbrel, Shelby Miller, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis. In return, they signed Nick Markakis and collected a pile of prospects.

Blaming Fredi Gonzalez for leading this collection of Minor Leaguers and veteran castoffs to a losing record against a brutal early schedule (Nationals, Cardinals, Nationals, Marlins, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox) is akin to blaming Robert E. Lee for commanding the rebel armies to a two-year losing streak against superior Union forces.

What If They Keep Losing?
The question has been raised about what happens if the losing continues. At 7-20, the Braves are "on pace" -- the stupidest pair of words in baseball -- to go 42-120, tied with the '62 Mets for the most losses in a season. So?  If management hands Gonzalez a 100-loss team, what difference does it make if they lose 90 or 120?

Obviously the public knows little about the internal workings of the franchise. Perhaps Fredi is insubordinate, shiftless or apathetic. Perhaps he's regularly voicing his displeasure to management about the direction of the franchise. Firing might be in order.

Or maybe it's just an act of mercy, although there are a lot worse things than a million dollar paycheck and access to the ballpark all summer. The Braves lack star power, but the teams they lose to have players worth watching.

The talk, however, is solely about the team's performance, which was largely pre-ordained by the people who would ostensibly do the firing. And for this team, at this time, that is the dumbest reason to fire the manager.

Jake Arrieta Is Breaking Baseball

Jake Arrieta is baseball's Leicester City. The Foxes were within a hair's breath of being relegated from the English Premier League into the second division in 2015. One year later they stand as the lords of British football. Likewise, Arrieta was thrown to the scrap heap by the Orioles before dominating the NL last season like almost no one has ever done before him.

His mastery has continued unabated this season, to the tune of 6-0, 0.84. He has won a franchise record 17 consecutive decisions dating back to August 1 of last year, during which time he is 17-0 0.55.

He has made opposing batters his bitches.

Arrieta's supremacy over 25 starts has now reached historic levels. No one in history has cooked with more gas for this long. Bob Gibson set the ERA mark in 1968, but that was a season of MLB-wide record lows in virtually every batting category, including runs scored.

Every one of those 25 starts achieved quality start status except his next to last. Manager Joe Maddon pulled Arrieta after 5 1/3 innings with a 5-1 lead against the hapless Brewers. Arrieta blamed himself for chewing up 92 pitches.

So here's the tally for those 25 games: The National League has a .376 OPS against Arrieta. They've fanned 126 times and walked 26. He allows two-thirds of a baserunner per inning, about half the league average.

In other words, against Jake Arrieta, the average hitter, say Rockies' outfielder Charlie Blackmon, who otherwise enjoys a .797 OPS, hits like a pitcher. Reds starter David Dewitt Bailey sports a career mark of .158/.185/.178 for a .362 with six doubles and no homers in his 305 plate appearances. And they call him Homer. That's what the average Major League hitter looks like against Jake Arrieta.

There is one pitcher hitting a prodigious .820 OPS with three homers during that period. That would be Arrieta himself. In those 25 games, all of baseball has managed three homers off him. That's just wrong. He's not just humiliating opposing batters; he's beating up their pitching staffs too.

What I Wish I'd Already Written About The White Sox

A month ago, I mentioned how several apparently undistinguished teams tickled my fancy for 2016. That's not a prediction, just an observation that the elements exist for a surprising season.

In this column I mentioned the Miami Marlins, who at the time included a second baseman whose PR people had not yet cooked up a statement blaming a ghost for his positive steroid test.

I hadn't made my way back to the theme until now, by which time, alas, my next candidate had already started the campaign like a house on fire. At the risk of claiming to create a bandwagon that is already in transit, allow me to introduce you to your 2016 Chicago White Sox.

Minor Deals Can Add Up
The front office played small ball this off season, signing a handful of low-cost reclamation projects like Mat Latos, Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro, Jimmy Rollins and Austin Jackson. No one could have predicted any would deliver as Latos has already, but this strategy can sometimes produce life by a thousand cuts.

Then they traded for first-half phenom Todd Frazier to handle the hot corner and polymath Brett Lawrie to staff the keystone. Added to Melky Cabrera, slugger Jose Abreu and defensive whiz Adam Eaton, that could be a pretty potent lineup. If young outfielder Avisail Garcia scratches his potential, so much the better.

Rotation is the Wild Card
In the winter prior to last season, the Pale Hose inked a cabal of free agents, including pitchers David Robertson and Zach Duke.  With Chris Sale (left) playing the role of this generation's Randy Johnson Chicago has a solid anchor on the rotation. Add promising lefties Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon and some semblance of production from Latos, Duke, what's left of John Danks or someone else, the Sox could stymie opposing hitters enough to hand Robertson some save opportunities and stay in the mix in the uninspiring AL Central.

There isn't an algorithm alive today that can project the bench or the relief corps, or predict how well this contingent will avoid the strains, pains and automobiles that bedevil some contenders. But given what they have, it's definitely not a stretch to say the White Sox could be playing into October.

Word of the Day

I'm watching the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers in an ALDS rematch north of the border. After a go-ahead homer and two rifle throws from right field, one of which nailed a runner at the plate, we have a new word of the day.

Nomar Mazara. (I know, it's two words. Sue me.)

The 6'4", 215-pound Dominican is another brick in MLB's wall. He can't yet legally buy a beer.

Get used to hearing his name.

Early Season Quirks

Trevor Story is a rookie. He is a shortstop. Twenty-five games into the season he has out-homered Adrian Gonzalez (293 lifetime homers), Matt Holiday (278), Joey Votto (194), Ryan Zimmerman (201) and Jason Heyward (97). Combined.

Nolan Arrenado has hit twice as many home runs as . . .  the Atlanta Braves.

The Major League leader in batting average and slugging percentage is Aledmys Diaz. Yes, THE Aledmys Diaz. The rookie shortstop from Cuba is hitting .423 for the Cardinals.  See what warmer relations can do?

Dallas Keuchel last April: 3-0, 0.73. Dallas Keuchel this April: 2-3, 4.41.

Robinson Cano has slugged eight home runs in April. He didn't hit his eighth last year until July.  The year prior his eighth home run came in August.

Mat Latos, 2015 -- 4-10, 4.95 for three teams. Mat Latos, 2016 -- 4-0, 1.84 for the White Sox.

Through July of last year, the Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley was batting .125 with one homer, two triples and three RBIs. Through April 2016 he's hitting .273 with a homer, four triples and 13 RBI. He had more triples and RBIs in yesterday's romp over the Yankees than during the entire first half last season.

Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00) may be for real.

Dee Gordon is suspended for 80 games for using performance enhancing drugs. He has smashed eight home runs in more than 2000 plate appearances. Keep that in mind next time you profile someone as a steroid user.

Travis Shaw is hitting .314/.385/.500 and vacuuming up grounders at third base for the Boston Red Sox. He's the guy replacing Pablo Sandoval, who hit .245/.292/.366 before injuring himself tripping over his own belly last year. Sandoval subtracted from the Sox a win against replacement last season at a cost of $17.6 million. For less than the point-six of that, Shaw has already earned Boston more than a win this season, a 7.2 WAR pace. So the actual, rather than average or theoretical replacement value of the Kung Fu Panda is minus-8 wins and $17 million lost. If you prefer the glass half full, Shaw's actual value replacing Sandoval is 8 wins + $17 million.

Mike Moustakas has scored 11 runs and knocked in 11 runs. He's singularly accounted for seven of each with home runs. Those Royals teammates haven't helped him much.

The Marlins are hitting .267 and have scored 85 runs, a little more than three per game. The Cubs are hitting a mere .255. They've tallied 136 runs, a little more than five per game. Good old batting average.