The Amazing Career of a Horrible Hitter

In 18 Major League seasons he cracked 20 home runs, a quarter of them in 1974, when he slugged .300. 

(He didn't bat .300; he had a slugging percentage of .300.)

His career totals of .228/.300/.280 are inflated by a .287/.351/.345 season in his prime. In other words, the only thing keeping him from being a pitcher was his inability to pitch.

He made the All-Star team in 1976, when he actually batted league average. He only came close to average two other times and retired with an OPS 32% below middling.

Sliding into outs in 31% of his 242 steal attempts further degraded his value. 

Yet. . . .

His slick fielding at shortstop earned the Orioles 40 wins over his career, roughly triple his offensive value. He is remembered as a key cog in a powerhouse franchise that won four pennants. His total career value -- 55 wins -- is greater than Davey Concepcion's, a contemporary named to eight All-Star berths.

It's hard to find as truly awful a hitter as Mark Belanger who nonetheless managed to start 2000 games and play an important role on a terrific team. Few others position players lacking the ability to hit for average or power, run fast or walk often have ever authored such a respectable resume.

We can thank Earl Weaver for recognizing the value of defense and writing Belanger's name on the lineup card 150 times a season. Weaver, always an innovator, knew that Jim Palmer, Dave McNally and other pitching stars who passed through the Baltimore rotation owed some of their success to the reliable dirt-scooper at short. We can also thank the likes of Boog Powell, Frank and Brooks Robinson, Paul Blair and Don Buford for making a power contribution from their shortstop unnecessary.

But mostly it's worth remembering fondly how a skinny intellectual from Pittsfield, MA could turn one skill - often overlooked -- into a career rated 508th best ever by Baseball-Reference.

Mark Belanger would have turned 69 next week, but he died of cancer 14 years ago from a lifelong addiction to sucking on poison sticks. He leaves behind many happy Baltimore baseball fans and the memory of an accomplished career, despite the absence of a single offensive skill.

The Critical Importance of Replacement Players

Seamheads long ago established the notion of a "replacement-level player" as the level of production a team could expect from a a freely available replacement -- generally considered a journeyman Quadruple-A player -- if their star suddenly succumbed to injury, illness or severe knuckleheadedness. (See: Ramirez, Manny) Its purpose is to divine the real value of a player, much the way we buy homeowner's insurance based on the cost of rebuilding the house rather on its market value.

Replacement level hitting for a right fielder is necessarily a more stringent standard than for a second baseman because right fielders who can hit .250 with 15 home runs come free with a purchase of 10 gallons of gas, whereas middle infielders who can hit their weight make Major League rosters as long as they bring their own gloves.
 
This explains (in part) why catcher Buster Posey, with a .919 OPS so far this year has been worth about 2.3 wins with the bat, while right fielder Jose Bautista, with a .975 OPS, has been worth just 1.7 wins. (The other component is ballpark: Posey plays half his games in a pitcher's park; Bautista plays half his in a stadium that favors neither pitcher nor hitter particularly.)

In truth, though, neither every team nor every situation has the same replacement level. A team that enters the off-season knowing its star third baseman will inaugurate the following campaign in rehab has time to recruit a fill-in whose talent level is closer to average. Similarly, a franchise with the advantages of a big market, payroll flexibility and a savvy front office can fish for bigger catches than can, say, the Padres.

None of which quite explains how three of the five most valuable Yankee position players are replacements. Presumably, DH Travis Hafner (.269/.387/.529), outfielder Vernon Wells (.270/.323/.477) and first baseman Lyle Overbay (.255/.292/.484) were available to the entire league. Indeed, Overbay, who compiled negative value for two teams last season before they cut him, is playing for the MLB equivalent of sofa cushion change -- $1.25 million. Yet the trio is filling in admirably for Alex Rodriguez/Kevin Youklis, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. 

It's important to note that although Hafner and Wells are viewed with jaundiced eyes, both have been above-average players for their careers. Pronk is being viewed against his heyday, which is long gone, and Wells against his contract, which was two years and $75 million more than was warranted. Wells delivered little for his $21 million each of the last two seasons, but the two before that he batted .275 and smacked 22 homers a season. Injuries have been Hafner's Achilles heal -- (ironically, he's suffered Biblically over the past decade, but an Achilles heal problem is not among his travails) -- but over the past four seasons, he's produced .268/.361/.453, or 25% above average.

The Sabermetric definition of replacement level for an outfielder is around a .600 OPS. The number wouldn't be much different for a DH or first baseman. Clearly, that is not the standard employed by the Yankees, whose three super-subs have published above-average chapters in April and May. Average OPS for premium hitting positions like corner outfield, DH and first basemen this year is roughly .744, a number cleared by Overbay and obliterated by Pronk and Wells.

Not every Yankee replacement is contending for an All-Star berth. Jayson Nix at shortstop (.230/.306/.294) has defined replacement-level while further burnishing Derek Jeter's bonafides. Eduardo Nunez, pressed into service at short when Kevin Youklis's bulging disc has required Nix to slide to third, is posting a .200/.290/.275 self-indictment with poor defense. With Youk back on the field, Joe Girardi can sit Nunez and endure just one offensive lost cause in the lineup.

Middle infielders who can swing a stick are hard to come by, even for the Yankees and even with lead time. Give a smart franchise time and money to plug holes at positions accustomed to big thumpers and apparently they can deliver starting quality players. Or maybe they've just been unbelievably lucky.

Montero for Pineda: The Prospect Swap That Failed Everyone

Remember the blockbuster 2011 trade between the Yankees and Mariners? Of if not blockbuster, not by New York standards, but a star vehicle with a big opening weekend at the box office? The one in which top prospect Jesus Montero left the Bronx for promising sophomore hurler Michael Pineda?

Well, about that.

Pineda had a season under his belt of 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. He killed lefties and righties by pounding the strike zone from his 6'7" frame. Yankee brass saw through the 9-10 record and liked the way a 3.2 K/BB ratio sounded. And they were done with Montero, whose bashing minor league pedigree and 996 OPS in 18 Major League games had other teams in a lather.

The Mariners figured that even if Montero's backstop development was a lost cause, he could rip the ball from the DH slot and reverse years of historically putrid run scoring in Seattle. In a ballpark that seemed to develop pitchers all by itself, they reasoned that they could replace Pineda.

The logic seemed sound on both ends: the Bombers needed another DH like Julia Fordham needed another good friend. The M's believed Montero's "Can't Miss" status meant he could hit.

And now, as Paul Harvey said, you know the rest of the story. Pineda's Spring training velocity last year took a dive before the Yankees discovered a torn labrum. He hasn't thrown a baseball in anger since. Montero has struck fear only in the hearts of the Mariners' front office, posting replacement-level performances in 2012 and 2013 only on his good days. Yesterday, Montero and his .669 Seattle OPS went to Tacoma for some freshening up.

After 200 games, the Yankees have gotten nothing from the trade and the Mariners actually less than nothing, in the sense that Montero has added (-.4) wins against replacement. Except that replacement-level batters win starting jobs in Seattle, so actual replacement level for them is a glove-first Double-A middle infielder.

Pineda is expected to pitch again this year and (Warning: Obligatory Jesus humor ahead) Jesus could return to Seattle. (There's no team in Bethlehem, PA.) For now, what looked like a blockbuster was more like a ball buster for both sides.

Get Real: Cleveland and Pittsburgh

Cleveland and Detroit are locking up for a pair of early-season first-place duels this week. Even if swept (Max Scherzer shut them down in game one), the Tribe will remain atop the AL Central leaderboard. Riding a heavy-hitting lineup and a reconstituted rotation, first-year manager Terry Francona's squad is seeking to dispatch a couple of years of history when Cleveland burst out of the blocks and faded down the backstretch.

Meanwhile, a couple of hours east, the Pittsburgh Pirates are eight games over .500, a position they haven't occupied at season's end in a generation. They're employing the reverse formula -- superb relief pitching and a couple of good starters are carrying the rest of the team.

At the quarter pole, there's time to dream, but in these two beleaguered cities, there's also time to be skeptical. We've seen all this before; say, last year, with predictable and familiar results. The Indians, four games over .500 following the All-Star break, dropped 54 of their remaining 75 games and crashed to 65-91. The Bucs, two games above .500 with two weeks to play, lost 11 of their last 16 to finish 79-83, a 20th straight year losing more times than they won.

Wait 'til this year.

For one thing, both teams come by their records honestly. The Indians have out-slugged their opponents by 37 runs, not quite the hallmark of a 26-17 record, but indicative of quality. The Pirates have shut down enemy batters and while also out-performing their run differential, are giving up fewer runs than they score.

Moreover, both teams are paced by veteran youth and have spread the good play around. Pittsburgh's offensive roster is just six deep -- center fielder Andrew McCutchen, first baseman Gaby Sanchez, right fielder Jose Tabata, left fielder Starling Marte, first baseman/outfielder Garret Jones, and surprisingly, catcher Russell Martin -- but none of them is out of synch with career norms. If anyone else heats up, the bats could begin to contribute.

The starting pitching is strong and deep, led by A.J. Burnett's Yankee revenge and Astro exile Wandy Rodriguez. Francisco Liriano's two starts after recovering from a fractured left arm have been promising (two runs and 16 K in 11 innings) and could give the Pirates a one-two-three punch they've lacked since Doug Drabek-Randy Tomlin-Bob Walk in 1993, the last time they visited the post-season. (That team included a rookie named Tim Wakefield who knuckled his way to 8-1, 2.15.) Flame-throwing closer Jason Grilli (14+ K/9) anchors a relief corps with ERAs that look like digital code -- all ones and zeroes.

In other words, there's more upside than downside in the 2013 Pirates as long as they stay relatively healthy. Pittsburgh has played nine of 15 series against below .500 teams, but in the NL Central that's hard to avoid. they've yet to tussle with Miami, so there remain free wins on the schedule. Not only could they end the futility, they could kick off an era of contention.

Cleveland has remade itself in 2013 and so far the results portend more. The club signed Nick Swisher to a big deal, rescued Ryan Raburn from Detroit, took a flyer on Mark Reynolds and overpaid Michael Bourn. In one-fourth of a season, Bourn and Swisher are delivering as expected, Raburn has resurrected his career (OPS+ of 29 last year; 148 this year) and Reynolds is hitting .253. When Mark Reynolds hits .253, pitchers cry. At .253/.341/.548, the former Oriole hot cornerman has already bestowed upon his new employers all the value he created through the spring, summer and fall last season.

Add in young catcher Carlos Santana, one of the emerging stars in baseball, and slugging keystoner Jason Kipnis, and the result is the Majors' second most potent offense. Like the Pirates, there's not a lot of mean to regress to.

The warning signs are on the other side of the equation. After Cy Young contender Justin Masterson, the rotation is so porous that warmed-over remnants of Brett Myers and Scott Kazmir have made starts. The mercy rule is soon to take effect on the Kazmir experiment, but it's not clear who takes his place. Ubaldo Jimenez  (5.31 ERA) and Trevor Bauer (15 BB in 16 innings) offer little solace. As with the Pirates, they're facing just their fifth .500+ team this week, but playing in the AL Central means KC, CHW and MIN pop up on the schedule regularly. (And they've yet to dip into the goodie bag that is the Astros.)

With a great skipper at the helm, the Indians have delivered more than the sum of their parts and can continue in that vein. If their goal, like the Pirates', is to step this side of mediocrity, they have a solid shot. Eighty-five wins is not an unreasonable goal. If visions of pennants dance in their heads they're going to need a couple of good arms, and soon.

Alburquerque in Toledo . . .and Other Tales

Alburquerque Now In Toledo
After uncorking 13 walks and six wild pitches in 14 innings, Tiger reliever Al Albuquerque has been optioned to the Triple-A club in central Ohio. 

Can't wait for Houston Street to get traded to the Astros.

Brandon Phillips Leads League in RBI
After 40 games, Brandon Phillips leads the NL in RBIs with 36. Has he got some RBI magic or is he swimming in opportunities? 

Yes.

Overall, Phillips is hitting just .286 with seven home runs. But he's delivering at a .450 clip with runners in scoring position. 

Which is often. Phillips hits fourth in the Reds' lineup behind Shin-soo Choo (.452 OBP) and Joey Votto (.462 OBP).

Phillips is unlikely to renew his clutch-hitting subscription. But his opportunities club card is good for the entire season as long as Choo and Votto remain in the lineup. Barring injury, "Dat Dude" should tally his first 100-RBI season. And then he should take Choo and Votto out to dinner.

Ah, Choo
Speaking of Choo, he's lucky to be playing in this era. The 30-year-old right fielder is exactly the kind of heads-up five-tool player whose body of work was largely invisible in the pre-sabermetric days.

Since he began playing regularly for the Indians in 2008, Choo has averaged .293 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. But today we know that only scratches the surface.

Shin-soo Choo is an on-base machine who has lots of gap power. His .293/.389/.477 performance with an average of 17 steals at a 77% success rate makes him worth 34% more than the average hitter over that five-plus years. He's been worth 23 wins against replacement with the bat during that time, about four-and-a-half per year. That's perennial all-star territory.

By way of comparison, Ryan Howard's  best five consecutive years with the stick were worth 18.3 wins, despite pounding 229 homers and bringing home 680 runs. Not to pick on Howard: Joe Carter's best six years added the same number of wins as Howard's five. His 180 homers, 652 RBI and 142 SB belied a .311 OBP. Carter got Hall of Fame votes.

Ten years ago, players like Shin-soo Choo were dismissed as complimentary parts and denied credit for the RBIs accumulated by the batters behind them. Today, we recognize all of Choo's attributes and more fully appreciate him. And when the baseball writers catch up to the rest of us, they'll finally elect Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame.

Bud No Weiser 
During baseball games, Budweiser is proudly advertising their new "bowtie" shaped can. They are officially out of ideas.

All Or Nothing In Cincinnati Lineup
Cincinnati has struggled to score runs on occasion this year despite Votto, Choo, Phillips and Jay Bruce. If you're wondering why, here's the rest of the lineup and their OPS (an average starter has about a .750 OPS):

Todd Frazier, .693
Zack Cozrt, .573
Devin Mesoraco, .660
Xavier Paul, .792

And the first two guys off the bench, Chris Heisey and Ryan Hannigan, have OPS in the 400s.

With the starting core and first rate pitching to start and finish games, the Reds are a playoff threat. Another bat could really help.

Fact of the Day
Fox Sports mentioned this on their national broadcast: In 14 years as a Major Leaguer, 10 as a fulltime starter, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start. 

A quintessentially average pitcher throughout his career, (lifetime 104 ERA+) Arroyo's durability and innings consumption have tremendous value to his team. At $11.5 million, his salary is right in the ballpark.

A Seamhead Predicts This Year's Surprise Performers

Spring Training is like a movie trailer. It's not the movie. It's often nothing like the movie. It's made up entirely of elements from the movie, but in a different context that can be very misleading. It has a different purpose than the movie. Don't judge a movie by its trailer, or a player by his Spring Training performance.

For one thing, its a ridiculously small sample size. (We're speaking of Spring Training now, but it also applies to the trailer.) For another, the competition is suspect. And many players use their time in Florida or Arizona to hone a particular skill.

And yet, sabermetric pioneer John Dewan, one of the founders of STATS, Inc. and the leading developer of fielding statistics, has determined that Spring Training does have predictive value in one narrow area.

Players whose slugging percentage spikes 200 points above their career norms experience breakout seasons 60% of the time. Think of Jose Bautista in 2010 and Jonathan Lucroy, AJ Pierzynski and Billy Butler last year. (A breakout season is generally considered a 20% increase in the relevant skill being measured, but that doesn't appear to be Dewan's yardstick. I'm not sure what standard he's using.)

With a modest .670 lifetime OPS his first two seasons, Lucroy busted loose for the Brewers last year, posting an .803 OPS in 2012, adding 35 points to his batting average, slugging 12 jacks in half a season's work and doubling his walk rate.

After 14 seasons behind the plate, Pierzynski had established himself as a solid (for a backstop) .740 OPS hitter, with slugging numbers in the low 400s and home runs in the low teens. Inexplicably last year, he slammed 27 long balls en route to a .501 SLG, an .827 OPS and the best effort with the stick of his career.

With an .820 lifetime OPS, Butler reached career highs with 29 homers, 107 RBI, an All-Star berth and an .882 OPS last year. Calling that a breakout is a bit of a reach, since "Country Breakfast" hit .300 and posted OPS of .850 twice before.

It's worth mentioning that none of the three -- there were plenty of others -- has maintained his great leap forward so far in 2013. That was to be expected of the 36-year-old Pierzynski. Because Lucroy is so young and Butler is every bit the star we saw in '12, the odds are on their side over the long haul.

All that said, here's Dewan's list of potential breakout candidates (minimum of 200 regular season at-bats and 40 spring training at-bats)

Hitter/Team, Spring Career Difference
Brandon Belt, Giants .906 .418 .488
Justin Smoak, Mariners .811 .377 .434
Howard Kendrick, Angels .833 .428 .405
Ryan Raburn, Indians .833 .430 .403
Nick Hundley, Padres .773 .390 .383
Rick Ankiel, Astros .780 .422 .358
Michael Morse, Mariners .824 .492 .332
Mike Moustakas, Royals .726 .395 .331
Brent Lillibridge, Cubs .675 .350 .325
Mark DeRosa, Blue Jays .725 .412 .313
Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians .725 .421 .304
Kevin Youkilis, Yankees .778 .482 .296
Domonic Brown, Phillies .675 .388 .287
Mitch Moreland, Rangers .727 .441 .286
Wilin Rosario, Rockies .805 .522 .283
Dexter Fowler, Rockies .705 .427 .278
Alex Gordon, Royals .714 .439 .275
Craig Gentry, Rangers .618 .355 .263
Gaby Sanchez, Pirates .683 .420 .263
Bryce Harper, Nationals .730 .477 .253
Juan Francisco, Braves .692 .440 .252
Elvis Andrus, Rangers .604 .353 .251
Brandon Crawford, Giants .577 .333 .244
Steve Clevenger, Cubs .523 .281 .242
Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays .655 .414 .241
Lucas Duda, Mets .660 .427 .233
Raul Ibanez, Mariners .700 .470 .230
Luis Cruz, Dodgers .600 .371 .229
Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks .625 .400 .225
Freddie Freeman, Braves .671 .449 .222
Peter Bourjos, Angels .614 .402 .212
Ben Francisco, Yankees .636 .425 .211
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks .636 .432 .204
Lorenzo Cain, Royals .615 .412 .203

I'll bet my favorite trumpet, Otis Mahorn, that Raul Ibanez doesn't out-perform his stellar career at age 57 (or whatever.) Conversely, it would be quite the upset if Bryce Harper failed to make a quantum leap following his Rookie of the Year season.

And finally, whatever magic beans Luis Cruz was planting in the Spring lost their powers once the season began. Even his weak lifetime .371 SLG is going to be a stretch after losing his infield job with the Dodgers because of 71 plate appearances with a hollow bat. A walk and six singles later (in 71 trips to the plate! That's .090/.114/.090 for you slash stat buffs) he's on the bench behind substitutes who couldn't make the Marlins' roster if you spotted them 10 home runs.

If Dewan's research is borne out over time, we'll have another weapon in our growing arsenal of analysis. We'll keep an eye on this group.

The Cubs Win the Pennant! The Cubs Win the Pennant!

In three years, when the Cubs win the NL Central, we'll look back to a little-noticed signing back on Monday as the watershed event.

Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.

In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.

In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.

A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer. 

So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.

It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.

With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.

Call Off the Season Now

It's May 14. The concept in force remains "small sample size." Yet already, 35 games into the season, logic prevails:

Division Leaders
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants

New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers

Wild Cards
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks

Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox

Other than the conspicuous absence of the Nationals, would any of this be shocking at year's end? All six division winners made the playoffs last year. So did two of the four Wild Cards. There doesn't appear to be a 2012 Cleveland, 2011 Pittsburgh or  2010 Baltimore here that takes off with a gallop and pulls up lame at the three-quarter pole.

Let's delve deeper. Here's the bottom of the standings:

Last place teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros

Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers

Not a single 2012 playoff team. We like to think of Toronto as a favorite, but the 2012 version lost 89 games and the imports arrived with plenty of downside everywhere but on the payroll.
Someone has to bring up the rear in the AL East.

L.A. will almost certainly switch places with the Padres, who are better equipped for the cellar. As for Chicago, well, let's hope the Blackhawks can parlay the NHL's best record into a Stanley Cup run.

It would be interesting to research how long it takes for Major League team records to coalesce around their natural state. In 2013, it looks like 30 games is about that point.

A Comeback of Historic Proportions?

"Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then."

"We are what our record says we are."


Depending on whether you put more stock in visually impaired rodent luck or outcomes-based analysis, Scott Kazmir is either experiencing the proverbial dead cat bounce or an historic comeback of the Mark Sanford variety.

Either way, the cranks who belittled his Spring Training revival can now lick the chicken ova off their mugs. Yum, yum.

Just to recap, the 15th pick in the 2002 draft (by the Mets), Kazmir electrified fans in Tampa by mowing down batters from '05-'09, pacing the junior circuit in K's in '07. But by age 25 in 2009, his K rate tanked as his fastball lost its bite . . . and then even its bark. Once sitting consistently mid-90s, it bottomed at 86 while flailing in the bigs and face-planting against 19-year-olds in an Independent League over the last three years.

But a funny thing may have happened while Kaz rode the pines the last two calendar years. His tired arm or crooked mechanics or serotonin imbalance (or whatever) cleared itself up and he came to Indians camp as a non-roster invitee throwing bee-bees again. Based on three starts of dubious predictive value, Kazmir made the big club and got pressed into starting service. In early April, that appeared to speak volumes more about Cleveland's rotation than about Scott Kazmir's rejuvenation.

And then he strained a ribcage and began the season on the DL, bringing wry smiles to the faces of cynics such as H.L. Mencken and my own personal self. Nothing changed when he finally returned to the team, surrendering six runs in a three-inning inauguration against the Minor League Astros. Had he called it a career right there no one could have blamed him.

Even after fanning 11 in 11 innings over his next two starts -- a pair of two-run performances against bottom dwellers KC and Minnesota -- a healthy dose of doubt was in order. He'd been pitching on six days rest against lower-tier offenses and still sported a 6.28 ERA with four home runs against him in 14 frames.

And then this past week, on normal rest, Kazmir threw 103 pitches past, through and around the Oakland A's, whiffing 10 without walking anyone over six innings. It was his first no-walk effort in 36 months. It was his first double-digit strikeout game in 45 months. Other than one solo homer, Oakland couldn't touch his 96 mph fastball.

So now we've come to the dead cat bounce. Is this -- pardon the mixed fauna metaphors -- Scott Kazmir's swan song before the clock strikes midnight on his Major League career or has he re-gained the strength/mechanics/outlook to master the best hitters in the world? 

A pitcher who inflates his fastball velocity by 10 mph is somewhere in the vicinity of unprecedented. On the other hand, mediocre results over 20 innings that consumed 387 pitches hardly bodes well. There are still serious questions about Kazmir's durability, both over a season and within games, even if he continues to short out radar guns.

"Trust by verify," say Russians, who are understandably reluctant to commit based on small sample sizes. We'll be watching Scott Kazmir and wishing him the best because that would be a great story. In the meantime, his record says he's a 4.86 ERA pitcher.

A Core Without a Corps

These guys all play on the same team, in a home stadium that had a messy divorce with offense long ago:

Left fielder .301/.368/.496, six steals 
Catcher .271/.381/.395, as many walks as strikeouts
First baseman .343/.398/.500
Utility infielder .361/.451/.475, plays more than half-time
Second baseman .343/.363/.452

Many believe they have the best pitching staff in the league. First place right?

Well, they're the $230 million L. A. Dodgers, 13-20 and last in the NL West. They've surrendered the third most runs in the NL. Their offense is even worse.

With that lineup? How?

You can't blame Carl Crawford, AJ Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and Mark Ellis (the lines above, respectively). The trade with Boston is paying off.

But that's the whole shooting match. Superstar center-fielder Matt Kemp has one home run. His pasture-mate, Andre Ethier, is hitting an empty .243. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is on the shelf and his backup, Justin Sellers, is hitting .191 with two extra base hits.

And those players are All-World compared to third baseman Luis Cruz. .090/.114/.090 with one walk and 12 strikeouts. His backup is Juan Uribe, .220/.371/.340. Uribe is getting on base -- 12 walks in 62 plate appearances, but he has no speed and can't carry Cruz's glove.

The result: The second fewest runs in the NL. The Dodgers are hitting .213 with runners in scoring position. AJ Ellis has been on base 43 times this year and scored five runs. The Dodgers don't leave the yard much, except to drive home after a loss.

With Zack Greinke nursing his WWE injury and Chad Billingsley joining the New Elbow Tendon Club, nine hurlers have earned a start from manager Don Mattingly. Five of them have failed to hold opponents to under five runs-a-game. Closer Brandon League is getting lit up. The bullpen has blown five of 14 save opportunities.

And Josh Beckett; -- 0-4, 5.14 -- appears to be as fried as the chicken he loves. 

Los Angeles can certainly blame the injury bug -- Greinke, Billingsley, Ramirez, Ted Lilly and others have been hurt. Kemp is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. But they'll have injuries all season, as will everyone, and without a bench, they won't survive.

Magic Johnson and Dodger management threw around the greenbacks to build this team, but they forgot to invest in a bench. Other than Punto and maybe Skip Schumaker, they really don't have the supporting cast to fill in for extended stretches while regulars inevitably hobble off the field. Money can be a powerful weapon if used strategically, but if all it does is overpay a small coterie of players, this is the unsurprising result.

The stars and scrubs approach has never fared well over 162 games.

There's still plenty of time in the eminently winnable NL West to capture the magic and make a run. But someone besides those guys at the top is going to have to step up. Mark Ellis isn't going to hit .343 all year.

The Bronx: The Place to Be

Had you examined the Washington Nationals a week ago, when they were scuffling with the .500 monster, you'd have seen a team of all upside. Lady Luck hadn't been kind to Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren's sub-replacement activities screamed "$13 million wasted!" 

The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.

And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.

As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.

Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.

After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.

The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.

A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.

It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance.  Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504. 

Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their  compadres back to spot duty.

If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up. 

Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.

What's Changed In Two Weeks?

One advantage of being disengaged for two weeks is that sport takes shape in more coherent form than in the normal day-to-day rhythms. While I've been gone, the Blue Jays have flown the coop, Anaheim has taken up the Astro challenge, Washington seems to have righted itself and the AL East has coalesced into an unlikely dogfight.

Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?

It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.

Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.

What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)

In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.

It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over. 

The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.

Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.

Mr. Underrated

If you were going to craft an underrated position player in baseball you'd put him on a bad team in a small market and subject him to a home stadium that's antagonistic towards offense. 

The player wouldn't hit .300 and he wouldn't pound a lot of homers. But he'd get on base at a nice clip and accumulate a lot of doubles and triples. He wouldn't stock up on RBIs, in part because his teammates don't get on base ahead of him.

Mr. Underrated would be a good defensive player, but not the flashy type who makes regular Web Gem appearances. He wouldn't tweet, or if he did, he wouldn't say anything notably stupid.

The same speed, good instincts and game knowledge responsible for his good defense would also inform his baserunning. He wouldn't hang gaudy steal numbers, but his SB percentage would be excellent and he would run the bases well and rarely make a mistake on the basepaths.

It wouldn't hurt his underrated status if he was highly touted but hadn't quite lived up to his billing. If a teammate has eclipsed him, so much the better.

That's the profile of Alex Gordon, the Royals' seventh-year pro. Now staffing left field, Gordon has hit .301/.372/.481 in tough Kaufman Stadium since 2011. He's gone yard just 39 times in that period but supplemented that with 102 doubles and 11 triples. A former third baseman, Gordon grades well above average with the glove and on the basepaths despite very modest stolen base numbers.

By wins above replacement, Gordon has been the eighth most valuable position player in the majors over the last 162 games, keeping company with Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. You likely hadn't placed Gordon in that rarefied air. And that's just the point.

Gordon will have to clear the fences twice as often or win a couple of batting titles to raise his profile, and to that end he's hitting .345 so far this year. But even if he doesn't achieve either, staying healthy and continuing his broad-based excellence will keep him among the game's elite and help Kansas City make a run or two at the playoffs over the next few seasons.