30 June 2012

Why Matt Kemp Belongs On My All-Star Ballot

This time, my All-Star ballot counts.

My All-Star choices reflect a combination of first-half performance and lifetime achievement. To avoid selecting a first-half fluke whose performance collapses after June, I also value the sustained excellence of players over their career. On the other hand, some early performances just demand inclusion.

American League

1B  Paul Konerko, White Sox -- .337/.415/.561.  It's not close.
2B  Robinson Cano, Yankees -- .305/.368/.573. Beginning to make a Hall of Fame case.
SS  Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians -- .292/.373/.487. He has assumed the mantle of AL's best shortstop.
3B  Miguel Cabrera, Tigers -- .309/.367/.537. With a logjam at this position, Cabrera's lifetime achievements provide greater confidence than the first-half performances of KC's Mike Moustakas and Toronto's Brett Lawrie. Adrian Beltre has similar numbers, but is aided by The Ballpark in Arlington.
C  Joe Mauer, Twins -- .324/.415/.439. The power outage is disconcerting, but he still gets on base. Chicago's AJ Pierczynski  and Boston's Saltalamacchia are also reasonable options.
OF Josh Hamilton, Rangers -- .316/.384/.614. He also flashes leather and leaps tall buildings.
OF Mike Trout, Angels -- .342/.398/.535, 22 of 25 steals. Should be the first of many for this spectacular rookie CF.
OF Jose Bautista, Blue Jays -- .238/.356/.550. You hate the batting average, but Joey Bats does everything else and could win a third straight home run crown.
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox -- .307/.396/.621. Big Papi not done; getting it done.

National League

1B  Joey Votto, Reds -- .354/.476/.639.  He's on pace for 70 doubles and an MVP.
2B  Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks, -- .302/.363/.520. Slim pickings at the keystone vaults Hill over Astro phenom Jose Altuve.
SS  Jed Lowrie, Astros-- .261/.349/.490. Who knew?
3B  David Wright, Mets-- .359/.452/.570. The Mets are preparing to rent a Brinks truck and back it  into Wright's driveway.
C Carlos Ruiz, Phillies --  .361/.427/.578. Cards' Molina and Giants Posey are legitimate choices here too.
OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers -- .355/.444/.719. The best player in the NL is on the DL, but his selection recognizes him and allows another player to enjoy the honor.
OF Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates -- .344/.399/.594. "Spectacular" is his middle name. (Along with "Stefan".)

OF Ryan Braun, Brewers -- .310/.390/.590. Maybe he didn't need steroids after all.
(OF Replacement for Kemp) Carlos Beltran, Cardinals -- .312/.402/.585. Albert who?

Quirk of the season: The18 selections represent 18 different teams. That's just the way it worked out.

For starting pitchers, how about Justin Verlander and R.A. Dickey. Awesome.
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26 June 2012

Trade R.A. Dickey Now!


In 1987, the Detroit Tigers were locked in a terrific battle with the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East title, one step from the World Series in the pre-Wild Card days. Seventeen games over .500 and two games behind their Ontario brethren on August 10, Detroit GM Bill Lajoie felt his staff needed a reliable fourth starter behind Jack Morris, Frank Tanana and Walt Terrel to complement the power-studded veteran lineup of Gibson, Trammel, Whitaker, Darrel Evans, Matt Nokes and Chet Lemon.

At the same time, the Atlanta Braves were skidding to a 69-92 finish before a gaggle of empty seats at dilapidated Fulton County Stadium. The cupboard was bare after Dale Murphy and a couple of veteran hurlers, and clearly the team's best days could only lie ahead.

So it's no surprise that then-GM Bobby Cox was willing to jettison his second best pitcher, veteran Doyle Alexander, for a mere prospect. Though the Braves liked what they saw in the young John Smoltz, he was still a year out of high school and hardly ready to produce for the big club anytime soon.

The Tigers, meanwhile, were ecstatic about getting the 36-year-old Alexander. He made 11 starts and catapulted Detroit to a 98-64 record, two games better than the Jays. Alexander finished 9-0, 1.53 and won the first game of the season-ending series with Toronto that evened their records with a pair to play.

History, however, has a different view of this trade. Smoltz fashioned a career worthy of a bronze bust as a starter, helped anchor perhaps the greatest pitching staff in history with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, and added a four-year stint as one of the greatest closers of all time. Smoltz played a role on a Braves contingent that won their division 15 straight times from 1991 to 2005. (Alexander pitched another good season for Detroit before folding to 6-18, 4.44 in 1989, his final year in the Majors.)

Atlanta cashed in a valuable chip in 1987 that could have helped them overtake the Dodgers for third place in the NL West. But they understood that a 36-year-old pitcher would be raising cattle by the time their next crop of stars would be ready.

The Mets are a far sight from 69-92 this year, thanks in large part to a 37-year-old knuckleballer, Mr. Robert Allen Dickey. At 11-1, 2.31 and a K/BB ratio of 4.5, Dickey has been the real deal in 2012, leading the Citi Field denizens into the mix in the NL East. Met fans are gleeful this year over their scrappy overachievers and the prospect of a second Wild Card.

GM Sandy Alderson is not paid to be a fan; he's paid to be a realist. Alderson knows that David Wright and the Seven Dwarfs have the least talent in the division and will start backpedaling in the standings once Philly's stars return, Atlanta finds itself and Miami gets its mojo. He also knows that though Dickey is a mesmerizing figure and a quality human being, he has all of 52 career wins dating all the way back to 2001. Dickey has delivered half of his career shutouts and 43% of his complete games in just April, May and June of this season. 

Met fans like to point out that Dickey's knuckling ways will add to his longevity. But no one has ever thrown a floater quite like Dickey, pushing 85 on the JUGS gun. There aren't a lot of Major League miles on Dickey's arm, but Father Time may not care. In any case, he's in for a post All-Star break Regression Flu, which could have the entire team coughing in the summer and early Fall. His value will never be this high again.

That's why Alderson is almost certainly shopping the erudite Volunteer to pitching-starved contenders. If Dickey's spectacular first half can bring back a couple of young talents who might be ready to contribute in 2014 and beyond, the Mets could have something there. Re-signing Wright, who's just 29, and continuing to develop Jordanny Valdespin, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Josh Thole and Lucas Duda would create the nucleus of a contender, if not a pennant winner.

Los Mets have to be careful, of course. Most prospects aren't John Smoltz; they're not even prospects. Flipping Dickey for unkept promises not only sinks this season, it inhibits the odds of Wright's return and adds nothing to the future. And while Veteran Leadership is usually wallpaper for Lack of Talent, there's something to be said for a quiet leader like R.A. to help keep this young band on the right path.

Still, make no mistake about it: while the boys from Queens are a feel-good story, their future is not now and R. A. Dickey's probably is. Trading him at peak value would be a bold gamble, but it could benefit the team by the time of John Smoltz's Hall of Fame induction.
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23 June 2012

A Big "Win" For Astute Observation


Three months into the baseball season, and one of the planet's leading mound practitioners has made 11 starts and "earned" not a single win.

But as NY Times reporter Zach Berman explains, that's as relevant today as a Yugo.

What's particularly noteworthy about this piece is that even players themselves -- specifically Cole Hamels in this case -- are joining the growing movement of people recognizing that other pieces of information better summarize a pitcher's performance.

In fact, according to Baseball-Reference, the hurler in question, Cliff Lee of the Phlailing Phillies, has delivered value worthy of a .600 winning percentage if backed by average defence, offense and luck. The stars have aligned to saddlehim with an 0-3 record. On planet AllThingsBeingEqual, his record would read more like 3-2.

Says them. The record suggests that's underselling Lee's performance. He continues to whiff batters and deny them free passes. He's not keeping the ball in the yard quite like he has in the past, but that's reflected in his still-exemplary 3.48 ERA, particularly in Citizens Bash Ballpark.

As Hamels correctly notes, "...wins aren't decided by a pitcher. They're decided by your team."
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15 June 2012

The Truth About Seamheads


A visit to New York gave me an opportunity to watch the terrific Met TV broadcast team of Gary Cohen, Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling for the first time.

(Full disclosure: Cohen was a college broadcast partner and is a longtime friend. Darling was a subject of a couple of those broadcasts. My friend Mitch has a brother named Keith.)

They talk constantly of on base percentage. Hernandez stresses plate discipline. They seem to understand the massive role of luck. And yet even they -- Hernandez particularly -- (sorry, Mitch's brother) repeated constantly some old shibboleths about new analysis.

Here are some common misconceptions, some of which gained currency on the telecast I saw and others that I hear regularly.

1. "Moneyball" represents stat guys.

Moneyball was a book written by Michael Lewis (not Billy Beane) and a movie sort-of depicting the book. It's about the GM of the small-market A's exploiting inefficiencies in the baseball labor market, particularly with respect to on base percentage. Beyond that, the book and movie (which took the kinds of liberties with the facts that get new head football coaches fired) have no relationship with new baseball analytics.  Calling the work of new analysis "Moneyball" suggests ignorance right from the get-go.

2. Seamheads don't care about batting average.

Batting average is the apple in apple pie. The pie is on-base percentage, which includes other important ingredients, like walks, the crust of the pie.  Carlos Pena can bat .198 and have the same on base percentage as Ichiro, batting .320. In that case, batting average isn't very telling. But if Pena could hit .250, he'd be a star. When Ichiro hits .280, he's a scrub. You need the apples and the crust to make a good pie, and if you ignore the crust, you're not getting the full pie.

3. Stat guys don't like stolen bases.

How can anyone not like stolen bases? Moving a runner from first to second is precious. Stat guys don't like caught stealings. Giving up an out is way more precious. So if you're going to break for second, make sure you've first paid homage to the patron saint of thievery.

Beyond that, even stat guys realize that always playing by the book makes a team predictable, assuming the other team has the same book. (They do. It's on their Nook.) Teams have to bluff ocassionally lest they become transparent.

4. Sabermetricians think they have all the answers.

All the seamheads I read recognize that most of the game is invisible. Hell, R.A. Dickey is 10-1. Dodger backstop A.J. Ellis has a .436 on base percentage. Twins rookie Scott Diamond from Binghamton University has a 2.13 ERA and a 5-1 K/BB ratio. Who had that parlay?

5. The new analysts think the whole game can be reduced to numbers.

What new analysis has shown us is exactly what can and what can't be quantified. Many old schoolers believe RBIs demonstrate how "clutch" a player is. The new analysis proved that "clutchness" is hard to quantify, and however it might be, RBIs are completely unsuited to the task.
 
6. Stat dufuses (the plural of dufus) think they can measure fielding even when their conclusions are contradicted by observation.

Hidebound traditionalists don't realize when they are observing with their hearts. Sometimes the new defensive measures help us to see that. But in 2012, that area of research is still in its adolescence and should not be trusted with the car keys. Right now, the defensive metrics are a tool to help us check our work, but they can't completely replace our eyes, even with all our inherent bias.

7. Seamheads never played the game. They can't possibly know as much as guys who did.

You've obviously never listened to the profound insights of Rob Dibble. Why should a monosyllabic cretin with a live arm see the inner workings of the game more clearly than someone who studies it?

8. The stat goobers don't understand the value of team chemistry.

Maybe the traditionalists can quantify it for the rest of us. Maybe they can explain how the squabbling 1972 A's won the World Series. And then repeated in '73. While they're at it, they might want to do the same for Billy Martin's dysfunctional '77 Yankees and the same primadonnas under Bob Lemon in '78. Those '62 Mets and 2003 Tigers had more good chemistry than Brad Pitt's high school reunion. How'd that work out for them? (NY and Detroit, not the reunion.)

No workplace functions as well when employees prefer splenectomies to each other's company. I wouldn't sign Manny Ramirez to my team with Jamie Dimon's money. But chemistry doesn't replace talent. If you want Veteran Presence and Clubhouse Leadership, hire good coaches.

9. Even with all their numbers, the sabermetrics numbskulls aren't any better at predicting who will succed in the Majors than the teams themselves.

That's because the sabermetrics numbskulls and the teams are one and the same. Every team in the league uses sabermetrics (in addition to scouting) to evaluate talent and avoid losing ground to everyone else using sabermetrics.

10. SABR monkeys don't put much stock in saves, pitching wins, RBIs and other traditional statistics.

Whoops, that one's true. Research shows those statistics correlate poorly with what they are attempting to measure.

There are almost certainly more of these, but I'm on the way to a Met game.
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10 June 2012

Nailing Down That Win


Now that he's part of baseball history, Seattle reliever Stephen Pryor knows how Ringo Starr felt.

Pryor was the third of six pitchers in the Mariners' combined no-hitter of the Dodgers, set up by Kevin Milwood's six sharp innings of work. After the 16-year veteran injured his groin, Seattle manager Eric Wedge played the  match-up game, employing five relievers -- Charlie Furbush, Pryor, Lucas Luetge, Brandon League and Tom Wilhelmsen -- to get the last nine outs.

Following Pryor, who recorded the last out of the seventh, Seattle pushed across the only run of the game, giving the rookie right-hander his first Major League win.

Pryor earned the win by contributing the worst outing of the six Mariner pitchers. He entered the game with two outs in the seventh and proceeded to walk two batters before getting his one out. Even Dodger starter Nathan Eovaldi far eclipsed that effort with six innings of shutout ball.

Six pitchers combine to make history, the least among them gets the win. Pitching wins: whatever. Obladi, oblada, life goes on.

09 June 2012

Votto Hitter


"Can you believe all the money Joey Votto got?" asked a friend, a Braves fan. "Joey Votto! Is he really that good?"

I can understand his confusion. Votto's traditional stats sing a nice little ditty, but not an aria worthy of the bouquet of Benjamins the Reds have bestowed upon him. Last season, Votto hit .309 with 29 HR and 103 RBI. That's not superstar yo.

This year, Votto is hitting .360, but he's only got 10 HR and 38 RBI. Is that any better than, say, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies, who's at .318, 14 HR 45 RBI?

Well, my Toyota Yaris and a Lexus both have four wheels. The Lexis has more headroom but my Yaris gets better gas mileage. So they're about even in quality, right?

Seeking better information yields more accurate answers. Votto leads the NL with 25 doubles, 46 walks, a .480 on base percentage and a .640 slugging percentage (compared to an estimable .383 and .599 for CarGo.) According to Baseball-Reference, Votto is the best hitter in MLB so far, leading baseball in OPS, OPS+, batting runs added, batting wins added, offensive wining percentage, wins above replacement and so on.

That's because the ability to achieve safe passage to first base via plate discipline travels in the blind spot of batting average. Doubles and triples hide behind the curtains in home runs' room. And RBIs -- need we flog that horse carcass again? They're as relevant as a vice president.

It was less dramatic last year, but Votto still led the league in walks and on base percentage, and hit 56% better than average. And of course, he was so good in 2010 that even the baseball writers voted him MVP. On top of that, he's a Gold Glove quality fielder.

So yeah, Joey Votto's really that good. Just don't ask the Triple Crown stats to tell you that.
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05 June 2012

A Walk In the Park


The Cubs and Giants squared off yesterday in a Monday matinee for the benefit of sabermetricians everywhere.

Each team posted eight hits, including one double. The Cubs added a stolen base. They also recorded a double play on defense and their pitchers fanned eight to the Giants' five. They strung together their hits better too, with four singles from five batters in the two-run second inning.

Advantage Chicago.

Except.

Five Bearcub hurlers issued seven free passes (to none by San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt), four of them to Buster Posey. That's right, every time Posey came to the plate, he took first base without making an out. To the batting average counters, the star catcher accomplished nothing, but Posey forced Chicago pitchers to throw at least 16 unproductive pitches that failed to record a single out He also created a base runner each time he batted. 

Without an official at bat, Posey scored two of the Giants' three runs, including the game-winner. His batting average didn't rise, he didn't hit a home run, or even a double or triple, he didn't steal a base, he didn't knock in a run. He didn't do anything that would awaken your average sportswriter from his 30-year slumber.

He was just the star of the game.
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03 June 2012

In Blind AL Central Can One-Eyed Tigers Be King?


No team has suffered more going from paper to the field this year than the Detroit Tigers. Currently four games under .500, Detroit looked like a mortal lock to win the AL Central after cruising last season and then adding the longball stylings of Prince Fielder in the off-season.

Baseball, even baseball, a game composed largely of combined individual efforts, is more than the sum of its parts. Because the Tigers' holes were evident and large enough to drive Miguel Cabrera through, their miseries were predictable, at least to a degree, and may very well be permanent. It is noteworthy that a blog obsessed with caveats about a long season is turning on this team so quickly. Here's why:

Verlander and the Seven Dwarves -- After the league's ace, who's the second-best starter on this team? Doug Fister had a magical 2011, but he's already missed five starts. The rest of the rotation is inconsistent, except when it's consistently bad. Add to that, Verlander's guaranteed regression to the mean. It's quite a mean, but Verlander can't possibly repeat his Cy Young/MVP season.

Valverde the Arsonist -- Detroit closer Jose Valverde set himself up for a fall in 2012 by delivering on all 45 save opportunities last year. Not only did he blow his first save opp this year, he can't find the plate, walking 15 in 21 innings and looking lost. He's regressed nearly to meaningless.

Ruling with an Iron Mitt -- If you've seen the Tigers play, you know what a circus they are defensively, particularly on the infield. They're immobile on the corners, can't keep a second baseman and have 220 pounds of Jhonny Peralta at short. Yesterday, third-string backstop Omir Santos provided a piquant demonstration of why teams should carry two catchers. He couldn't reach second with his throws on steal attempts and stumbled around like a drunken fawn before missing a foul pop. Other than that, he was great. Besides, at least he can't hit.

This is probably the crux of the matter. Defense is hard to measure; nonetheless, it's important. The Tigers give way runs everyday, and that makes the record a lot worse than the batting averages and home runs suggest.

Lousy rotation + closer implosion + bumbling with the leather = Hmmmm. Detroit is 11th of 14 AL teams in runs allowed.

The Keystone -- Ryan Raburn claimed second base because of his bat, which slugged .432 last year. This year his .209/.211/.165 was a reasonable preview of his replacements as he headed to Toledo. For example, top fill-in Danny Worth has chipped in .209/.293/.229. Detroit has the second worst performance from the keystone in baseball.

The Tigers have assets, of course, particularly at the plate, but so does every team. Does this sound like the profile of a championship contender? I suspect we've seen the real Tigers, whose only chance at the playoffs is as one-eyed man in a division of blind men.
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02 June 2012

Hits and Misses


Jo-Yawn
Ending a 51-year drought in anything is noteworthy; my alma mater winning a league title in football would set the herald angels to singing and serve as muse to decades of nostalgic poets.

So bravo for fans of the Flushing Nine who finally got to witness a no-hitter by the blue and orange. The achievement, notched appropriately by Johan Santana, the best hurler to wear a Met uniform since Tom Seaver, was instantly denigrated by the pop group Mr. Obvious and the Contrarians. 

It's true that Santana needed a defensive gem in left field and a bad call on a Beltran double, but all no-hitters require a matrix of defensive mastery and luck.True also: Santana wasn't dominating. He walked five, fanned eight and got scorched a couple of times.

That no-hitters are just lucky seven-hitters is cliche, and long ago stripped them of their glossy finish. A novelty is not worth regretful eruptions. Santana has surely pitched more impressive games during his illustrious career. The blown call was a good turn of luck, but in a sport that is 30% luck, railing against it is as railing against the day turning to night.

What's scary, as the Mets' adept manager Terry Collins noted, is that Santana's shoulder, a year removed from major surgery, endured 134 pitches in order to notch the no-no. Collins was fighting the demons of history, but he'll deeply regret the accomplishment if Santana can't life a beer mug to his lips a week from now.

Panic At the Disco
Remember that awful start by the Red Sox? They're two out of first place despite the loss of Pedroia and Ellsbury. The day the Yankees were in last place? They're a game out and awaiting the return of their best middle reliever and their top speed threat. Reports of the decline and fall of the Phillies' empire? They're over .500. The scorching start in St. Louis? Third place. Cleveland's pennant hopes? 2-5 last week.

Yeah, it's a long season.

An 82-Game Pre-season
Last year, the Washington Nationals finished a game under .500. The L.A. Angels claimed sixth in the AL with an 86-76 record. Had they faced off in the World Series, they would have eliminated five teams with 95+ wins and seven others that had out-performed them during the season. Are you ready for some football?

That's the Stanley Cup Finals this year, except that the L.A. Kings weren't even as accomplished as the Nats. When the #6 seed plays the last seed for the championship, the question is begged: why play a regular season?

It's too bad, because the playoffs have been scintillating and the Kings are crisper than Pringles.

Babes In the Hall
After Sammy Sosa hit .233/.282/.404 with 15 homers in his third season in the majors, eight percent below average, stat guru Bill James wrote that history suggested greatness. "Below average" for a 21-year-old at the world's top level suggests prodigy-level skills. James' research showed Sosa had roughly a one-in-three chance of making the Hall of Fame.

Age is the fulcrum here; in the early years, each year earlier a player holds his own against Majo0r League pitching adds logarithmically to his projected performance. A 24-year-old is much older in baseball terms than a 21-year-old, who is as much older compared to a 20-year-old.

Which brings us to 20-year-old Mike Trout of the Angels and 19-year-old Bryce Harper of Washington. If Harper's .274/.357/.504 (31% above average) and Trout's .309/.370/.537 (53% above average) are representative of their abilities -- and scouts vibrate like an oboe reed when discussing these two -- at least one of them is Hall-bound.

A third of a season is a short resume (Trout actually got a 40-game rehearsal last year with mixed results), but the early returns, combined with minor league domination, support the greatness thesis for these two outfielders. Both demonstrate power, speed, a good batting eye, strong defense and maybe most of all, an ability to learn and adjust.
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