Inflicting Pain With the Leather

Don't blame Prince Fielder.

The Big Vegetarian is scoffing down collard greens in Detroit these days, but that's not the reason his former team, last season's NL Central Division champs, is being lapped by the pretenders in Houston and Pittsburgh.

The Milwaukee Brewers deserve the 18-26 spanking they've received from Major League Baseball this year, after wining 94 a year ago. Despite the off-season departure of 275 pounds of slugging, the Brewers continue to rake, tallying 4.34 runs per game, fifth in the senior circuit.

The problem with the Brewers is the pitching. Check out these two high-priced noodle-arms in the rotation:

Shaun Marcum: 2-3, 3.93 ERA 19BB/49K

Zack Greinke: 5-1, 2.70 ERA 12BB/59/K

Whoops! Looks like those two are delivering like email. But the rest of the rotation is pure spam. Consider these in a 3.95 ERA league:

Yovani Gallardo: 2-4, 4.62 ERA 25BB/48K

Randy Wolf  2-4, 6.02 ERA  21BB/29K

Marco Estrada  0-3, 4.50 ERA  7BB/34K

The bullpen is even worse, leaving the team with a 4.48 ERA. That's nearly a full run worse than last year. You can't blame the former first baseman for that. 

You can't blame Fielder for the decline in Fielding either. He contributed less than the racing kielbasa on defense last season. (You never sausage a lousy glove man.)

 

In just 44 games, the Beermakers have cost themselves 27 runs afield, according to Baseball-Reference's Zone Fielding metric. That's about three losses on the defense alone, compared to two wins in 2011. Since the team is third in the Majors in avoiding errors, that can only mean they have all the mobility of a derrick crane. Can't blame Cecil's kid for that. The tatooed first basespheroid actually cost the team six runs with the leather in 2011.

Milwaukee gave up a lot of future talent for Greinke and Marcum, but they can't do it alone. They need some defensive help -- in the field, behind them in the rotation and after them in late innings. They proved last season that they have the talent; they just need to begin showing it before the woebegone Cubs catch them.

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A Fly On the Wall in Cleveland

Cleveland Indians closer, Chris Perez: Um, Mr. Shapiro, you wanted to see me?

Cleveland Indians GM Mark Shapiro: Hey Chris, thanks for stopping by. Have a seat.

Perez: Did you want to congratulate me for striking out the side Saturday?

Shapiro: Uh, no, though that was great. 

Perez: Are you pissed about the walk and hit I gave up on Thursday?

Shapiro: No, no. We won anyway, so that's good.

Perez: We're in first place, though you'd hardly know it from the attendance.

Shapiro: Yeah, that's what I want to discuss. Um, Chris? The thing is, see, uh, shut the fuck up.

Perez: What?

Shapiro: Look, I appreciate that we're 24-18 and in first place, yet we're last in baseball in attendance.

Perez: See what I'm saying?

Shapiro: Sure, and I appreciate that you're 14 for 15 in save opportunities.

Perez: And no one's coming out to see them.

Shapiro: Right, and I'm sure that's frustrating. But see Chris, here's the thing. We're the freakin' Indians. Okay? We haven't delivered on a promise since Carlos Baerga turned to lard in 1996. So it's not like the fans owe us anything. It's their money and they get to decide what to do with it, particularly when it costs 200 bucks to take the family to 1/162nd of the season. Besides that, we play in Cleveland, which means that our fans have to be residents of Cleveland. You see what I'm saying? They've pretty much pinned the suffering meter over the years, particularly with the whole LeBron thing.

Perez: Now that was funny. At least we're not Detroit.

Shapiro: Right, who'd want to be Detroit? Detroit made the World Series a few years ago and won our division last year. And remember, we were 31-16 on May 23 last season and had a seven game lead.

Perez: And we still didn't draw two million people.

Shapiro: ...because we went 49-66 the rest of the way and finished 15 games out. We drew 1.8 million from a city full of people who are in school through June and then leave this godforsaken place during the summer.

Perez: But what about all those years that we sold out?

Shapiro: We didn't suck then! We went 100-44. We made the World Series twice. The fans are smarting from all our late season bed-wetting and waiting for us to prove that we're real before they pour back into the Jake.

Perez: You mean Progressive Field?

Shapiro: Didn't I tell you to shut the fuck up?

Perez: But we are for real. 

Shapiro: Yeah, as real as Kim Kardashian. We've been outscored in our first 45 games. We've played 15 games against the White Sox and Royals, and just three against the Rangers, Yankees and Rays. We've played six more games at home than on the road. We've won nine of 11 one-run games, in part thanks to you and in part because we've been lucky.

Perez: But we're 24-18...

Shapiro: ...and Justin freakin' Masterson is our #2 starter. Casey Kotchman is the best we can do at first base. You know what a slugger he is? He's pounded 62 home runs in his nine year career. That's almost as many as our DH hit in two years ... back when he could hit.

Perez: So you want me to apologize to the fans for dissing them for not showing up?

Shapiro: Hell no. We want you to stand by your comments unapologetically.

Perez: I don't get it.

Shapiro: ...so we can throw you under the bus. The team is going to run from your comments like Wilma Rudolph. We're going to suck up to our potential customers like a nerd to the prom queen. And then, if Derek Lowe keeps pitching out of his mind, and if Jack Hanrahan remains blissfully unaware that he's Jack Hanrahan, and if the Tigers continue to play with holes in their mitts, and if we continue to play teams just as they go cold, well, maybe we'll last through the All-Star break and the fans will peak in, at least out of curiosity.

Perez: And maybe we can win the division!

Shapiro: Sure Chris. And maybe Democrats can balance budgets.

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Houston: We Don't Have a Problem

"Low expectations are the key to happiness."

-- A wise man

The New York Yankees are two games over .500 and Big Apple sports talk airwaves are atwitter -- as is Twitter itself -- with doomsday rhetoric. Manager Joe Girardi has to keep his resume fresh.

In their final season in the National League, the Houston Astros are 18-22 and inducing -- if not glee, then at least gratification. Manager Brad Mills may soon find himself being fitted for a bronze likeness. Thank goodness for low expectations.

Following a dismal 56-106 season in which they finally converted high-priced veterans into batches of prospects, the 'Stros were tabbed for a 2012 as ugly as diaper rash. Las Vegas put the over-under on 98.5 losses. Baseball Prospectus's million pre-season simulations averaged 100 losses for Houston.

Having clung for half-a-decade to a mediocrity-or-bust philosophy featuring aging veterans far beyond their expiration dates, it finally all went sour for the Houston franchise last year. A new owner dismissed baseball's worst general manager and began disassembling the roster in full rebuild mode. In 2011 alone, Houston flipped its remaining veteran assets, Jeff Keppinger, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne, for 10 potential future stars.

Entering this season, fans at Minute Maid Park were slated to be treated to little more than a minor league club. Besides slugger Carlos Lee, no Astro batter had accumulated more than 20 career homers or 120 lifetime RBIs. Not withstanding starters Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and closer Brett Meyers,there might not have been a pitcher on their roster whom a contending team would employ.*

*Okay, almost any team would love to pay 28-year-old righty reliever Wilton Lopez $442K to bring his sub-three ERA and nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio to a mound near them. But since you've never heard of Wilton Lopez, I thought I could get away with ignoring him.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the basement. The Astros are tied for fifth in the league in scoring with such a balanced attack that no one sports an OPS over .806 (near-rookie second baseman Jose Altuve), no one has bopped more than five home runs (Red Sox castoff shortstop Jed Lowrie), and only two regulars have reached safely even 35% of the time (Lowrie and Lee). Paradoxically, this bodes well: it's hard to see where the expected regression is going to come from.

The pitching has also pleasantly surprised, with a middle-of-the-league performance featuring veterans Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and rejuvenated relievers Meyers and Brandon Lyon. 

Still, the Astros no longer value a .501 record. Everything they do in 2012 under new GM Jeff Luhnow is a long-term investment. Lee, Meyers, Lyon and Rodriguez, all 30-somethings with swollen price tags, could be gone by year's end in favor of promising farm stock. Already, young pitchers Paul Clemens, Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles, and first base blue-chipper Brett Wallace are slated for action with the big club. Management is not particularly concerned with whether this team finishes above the Cubs and Pirates in the standings, as long as they make progress towards winning the city's first baseball championship.

All of which provides a foundation of low expectations on which to build a record. 70-92 would look awfully good.

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Another Time Around the Wheel in Baltimore

Break up the Orioles! As of last night, the Baltimorons owned the best record in the American League at 25-14. In the upside-down AL East, they trump Tampa, Toronto, the Yankees and the Red Sox.

If you hear Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young singing "we have all been here before," it's because Deja Vu isn't just a song*, it's the yellow birds' modus operandi. Check out this cheeky blog from April about hot starts at Camden Yards.

*The song came up on my mp3 player earlier this week -- and then it mysteriously played again. No kidding.

In summary, the "Sorryels" have scratched out roughly as many wins as losses in the first half of the season since 2001, and fallen apart thereafter. This very team went 34-20 under Buck Showalter to end the 2010 campaign, then stumbled through most of last season until a 22-16 finish. Counting that, they've Dr. Jekylled their last 77 games with a 47-30 record. But in a decade of futility, what goes up comes down.

Still, the current squad has a pack of underachievers who might finally be delivering. Outfielder Adam Jones and backstop Matt Wieters have lived up to potential so far with OPS of .931 and .851 respectively. A starting staff of four-star prospects has performed at a middling level, a dramatic improvement over previous years. That Brian Matusz has limited opponents to 11.5 hits and one home run per nine innings, for a 3-4, 5.71 record, is a moral victory ranking with Gettysburg compared to last year's combustion of 1-9, 10.69, allowing 14.7 hits and 3.3 big flies per nine.

So go ahead, believe in the Orioles at your own risk. Mostly, I believe in the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays.

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Prior and Wood, If Only They Could

In 1998, "Kerry Wood" was an exclamation. After retiring today, "Kerry Wood" is a warning.

The first-round pick with the big body and the triple-digit heater led Chicago to the playoffs with a 13-6, 3.40, 233-strikeout, Rookie of the Year performance in '98. In his fifth start, he electrified the baseball world with a one-hit, no-walk, 20-strikeout shutout of the Astros, perhaps the greatest pitching effort ever. (The one safety was an infield dribbler by Craig Biggio.)

Before the season ended, Wood was cooling his sore elbow. One playoff start later his ulnar collateral ligament was toast and Tommy John surgery awaited, shelving him for the '99 season. It foreshadowed his entire, snakebit, career

The Cubs rushed him back 12 months later and Wood scuffled in 2000, but regained form in 2001 with 174 innings of 12-6, 3.36 and 217 strikeouts. He whiffed 217 more in '02 and 266 in '03, topping 200 innings each season. At that point, Wood had compiled an impressive 59-41, 3.62 record with 1065 Ks in 903 frames of work.

Then, Wood turned to balsa. He frayed his rotator cuff and missed significant time over the next three seasons, including all but four starts in '06. By '07 Wood was a reliever, and not the kind who wakes the echoes of Wilhelm, Fingers or Rivera. An exceptional '08 gave way to mundanity out of the pen and yesterday, having returned to the Cubs for his valedictory, he gave way after delivering the lineup card and facing one batter -- striking out Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox.

Wood departs at age 35 with an 86-75, 3.67 record and 63 saves. He made two All-Star games and never led the league in anything after age 26, certainly not the resume that Cubs fans dreamed about 14 years ago when he was baffling NL batters.

Although they enjoyed rather little overlap, Wood will forever be paired with fellow flameout Mark Prior. Also a top-five draft pick, Prior exploded on the scene in '02 and dominated in '03, with an 18-6, 2.43 line and 245 strikeouts in the near-pennant season, a performance that earned him a third-place finish in the Cy Young voting. But the wheels came off in '04, as injuries put Prior and Wood in pitching limbo simultaneously.

Prior threw just 229 more Major League innings in his career, which ended* at age 26 with a 42-29, 3.51 tally. There is no doubt that had Prior been able to stay healthy, he could have been one of the greats. (Extrapolate his truncated performance over 15 full seasons and you get a 200-win pitcher with an ERA 24% better than average in a hitters' park and more strikeouts than innings.) But as they say, if the queen had testicles, she'd be king.

*Prior attempted a reboot in 2010 and has tossed around the minors since. He is currently in extended Spring Training for the Red Sox. This requiem may be premature, but that's not the way to bet. More likely, Prior and Wood are memories, a cautionary tale for all those who would project past performance into the future. Dwight Gooden, Dontrelle Willis, Mark Fidrych and a long parade of others send their regards.

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Slash Stats and Triple Crowns

Babe Ruth never did it. Barry Bonds never did it. Neither did Stan Musial or Willie Mays or Honus Wagner. Josh Hamilton might do it -- at least he's on track to.

It's winning the Triple Crown, of course. Hamilton has been AL pitching's daddy over the first 31 games, pacing the circuit in batting average, HR and RBI (and total bases and on base and slugging and OPS.) In fact, he's on pace* to hit .402 with 94 homers and 214 RBI. I'm thinking that will get it done at season's end. And here's the thing: even though Triple Crown stats have been debunked of their mystical powers, every Triple Crown winner has stood tallest against his peers.

Should Hamilton maintain his torrid pace, the story wouldn't be the Triple Crown, it would be the greatest batting season in MLB history. .402 BA, 84 HR and 214 RBI is so awesomely awesome that nobody needs your fancy stathead equations or VORP readings to cast an MVP vote.

Even sporting more pedestrian Triple Crown lines, every single player who's lead his circuit in those three categories has also led his league in OPS. Without debunking the popular version, the more significant (though easier) achievement is the slash stats Triple Crown of OBP/SLG/OPS. It's more significant because it more often identifies the league's best hitter.

Since 1939, the rookie year for the MVP award, there have been 15 seasons in which a batter got aboard safely and hit for power better than everyone else in the league. (Ted Williams did it five times, Barry Bonds and Stan Musial twice each. Babe Ruth achieved the feat nine times, all prior to '39.) Nine of the 15 times the Slash Stat King failed to knock in the most runs. In eight of those 15 seasons the league's best hitter failed to win the MVP. (Two pre-humidor Rockies are included on this list; they didn't deserve the MVP. On the other hand, Williams went 0-for-5 on the MVPs, probably all of which should have been his.)

So what correlates with the MVP? In 12 of the 15 years that a player Triple Slashed, the MVP came from the team that finished first. Twice more the winner's team won the Wild Card.

It's a good reminder of two things:

1. Triple Crown stats are like government communiques: they often suggest something but rarely tell the whole story. In extreme cases, it's pretty obvious what's going on.
2. Want the hardware? Forget the walks. Play with teammates who get on base and make sure you bat behind them.

*giggle
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How Many Benjamins for Hamilton?

That thudding sound you heard when Josh Hamilton deposited his third and fourth line drives into the seats last night was the sound of GM Jon Daniels smacking his forehead.

Daniels has the unenviable task of dealing with Hamilton's 2013 free agency status just as his center fielder is mashing.

What Daniels no doubt knows is that while Hamilton is a great player and a heart-warming tale of redemption, he's also a 31-year-old with an emergency room loyalty card. Despite his .313/.370/.556 stick and defensive prowess in a key position, this is not a man to whom you give a golden parachute.

A batter who hits .250 is a .250 hitter. A pitcher who fans 250 a year is a strikeout pitcher. Likewise, a player who pays rent to the disabled list is injury prone. In his first five seasons, Josh Hamilton has made five DL trips and missed 205 games due to 20 different injuries as varied as broken ribs, a strained hammy, a sore back and patellar tendinitis. That's 40 games a season during which Josh Hamilton had absolutely no value to his team whatsoever.

The fans in Dallas don't care about that. All they see are his Triple-Crown numbers so far this season, his 75 home run pace, his 2010 MVP, his Adonis profile, his devout faith, and of course, the only two AL pennants in team history. They want him back. 

So does Jon Daniels, but he recognizes that Josh Hamilton is only three-quarters of a superstar if he only plays 120 games. While players with his mad skills coax $25 million/year, Hamilton is only worth three-quarters of that --$19 million. While other superstars ink deals that guarantee their income to age 40, the Rangers would be imprudent to commit to their injury-riddled slugger beyond four or five years.

It's going to be interesting to see where this goes. My guess is that Hamilton fractures a pinkie or ruptures a spleen or contracts blue skin disorder before the season ends because, well, that's what Josh Hamilton does. And that will splash a dose of reality on the negotiations.

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From Hoser to Closer

Has a player who's gone oh-for-eight with five strikeouts, a double-play and utterly no defensive value ever been the hero of a game?

It happened Sunday in the 17-inning tilt between Baltimore and Boston. Having burned through his bullpen, Orioles' manager Buck Showalter sent flailing designated hitter Chris Davis to the mound. Davis hurled two scoreless frames, fanning a pair and earning the win as his teammates plated three runs in the 17th.

In other words, Davis was responsible for 15 outs: nine that he hit into and six that he induced.

The 26-year-old right-hander last toed the rubber for Navarro (Texas) Junior College in 2006. It's also the first time in 2012 that he's made eight consecutive outs. Davis was philosophical about the turn of events.

Summoned to pitch, he thought to himself, "Sweet, I get to try something different today, because hitting ain't working." 

By the way, Rube Waddell of the Boston Americans beat the Philadelphia Athletics 4-2 in 20 innings on July 4, 1905 while taking the double-collar.

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Big Donkey Kicking Again

And so, with 27 games in the books, we can conclusively pronounce Adam Dunn's career no longer over.

Dunn, as you may recall, achieved a dubious distinction last year: he had the worst mid-career season any great hitter has ever had. Dunn batted .159, fanned in 36% of his at-bats and swatted just 11 big flies, fewer than a third of his usual output.

This year, he's at an extremely Dunnian .250/.376/.587 with nine homers. He's more than halfway to last year's RBI total and and has already collected nearly 40% of last year's hit total. Enough ballots have been counted for retirement to concede. The Big Donkey's still kicking.

Whew! 'Cause that dude is fun to watch with his all or nothing approach. He's nearing 400 home runs, 1,000 RBI and 2,000 strikeouts. His .374 lifetime OBP belies that lousy batting average (.244). And if Dunn isn't Done -- he's just 32 -- he could rack up lots more highlights.

Hooray for us.

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