29 November 2011

Jim Boeheim: You're Not Done


This is more important than sports. It's more important than a coach or a player or a team. It's the most important post you'll read in this space.

The best man at my wedding has been my best friend since first grade. He is a kind and generous man, a loving husband and a doting father. He is loyal and hard-working and cares about other people. I have loved him my whole life.

And if a young adult came forward claiming my best friend had raped him as a boy, I could not unequivocally refute the charge. I could attest to my friend's character and note that the charge is totally inconsistent with the man I know. But I don't live inside his skin and observe his daily demons.

This evidently is news to Syracuse University basketball coach Jim Boeheim. Confronted with allegations of abuse against his top assistant, Boeheim vehemently denied the charges. As I mentioned to everyone around me at the time: his denial was ipso facto a lie. He could not possibly know their veracity.

Had that been all, we could forgive his outburst as the misdirected defense of a friend. But Boeheim committed a sin that undermined the cause of sexual abuse victims everywhere. He publicly called the alleged victims liars. The most critical factor in whether an abuse victim reports the crime is whether they think they will be believed. Jim Boeheim gave millions of past and future victims another reason to curl up and suffer instead.

Maddeningly, it gets worse. How did Boeheim know that the alleged victims were lying? Because there was no corroborating evidence. Good God: that is the hallmark of nearly every sexual assault. That assertion casts doubt on virtually every rape and molestation case there has ever been.

On the day of his remarks, I observed to friends that the Syracuse PR department had to be admonishing Boeheim to clamp his piehole immediately. All it would take is one more victim to come forward with a similar claim to illustrate how despicably Boeheim had acted.

And sure enough, nary a week passed before that very thing -- and then some -- transpired, forcing the school to fire the assistant coach. Boeheim, to his credit, admitted his mistake and apologized.

That was a good first step, but it isn't nearly sufficient. Jim Boeheim abused his considerable power to pour scorn on alleged sexual abuse victims. His words will make it harder to prosecute rapists and harder to convict them. His words cast a lengthening shadow over every abuse victim in Central NY and beyond.

Jim Boeheim must make a very public and quite considerable monetary contribution to an organization aiding rape victims and fighting against sexual abuse. During the public proceedings, he must elucidate exactly what he did wrong and state categorically how all reports of sexual abuse must be treated with respect and the assumption of truth.

Sexual abuse of children is an adult problem that can only be solved by adults. Jim Boeheim added to the problem and must now make amends. Anything less is immoral. If he refuses to do so, he should be summarily fired and universally reviled.
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27 November 2011

Things To Be Thankful For


If your favorite sport is hockey or basketball, I shed a tear for you. Your top professional leagues are turkeys. Baseball fans have much for which to give thanks:

  • God's blessing on 90 feet. Not one foot more or less.
  • No clock to kill. A team can never win by quitting before the game ends.
  • Ever fresh enlightenment. Thank you Bill James, Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, Keith Law, Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Analysts, Baseball Think Factory, Baseball Reference and many others. Maybe most of all, the sweet swing of Joe Poz.
  • Green waves of grass, dirt diamonds with a bump in the middle like a screw top, stirrup socks, giant scoreboards with real time scores, cityscapes beyond the outfield walls.
  • The Designated Hitter. Anything that prevents pitching changes is a good thing.
  • St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, NY Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, (St. Louis Cardinals) Chicago White Sox, (Boston Red Sox), Florida Marlins, Anaheim Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks. Nine teams have won the last 11 World Series. 
  • Albert Pujols, this generation's Stan Musial. 
  • The Hot Stove League. It keeps us warm through the long, cold winter.
  • The Green Monster; the Monuments; Eutaw Street, Boog's BBQ and the warehouse; the rightfield pool; ivy; retractable roofs; and other distinct elements that make each stadium unique.
  • A three-two count with the bases loaded and two outs in a one-run game.
  • The people who bring the games to life for us. Especially Vin Scully, John Sciambi, Jon Miller, Dave Campbell, Bob Uecker, Gary Cohen, Charlie Steiner, Sean McDonough. 
  • The sounds: of bat on ball, of ball in mitt. "Whomp!"  Of vendors. "Hat dawg!" Of the crowd.
  • We're never more than 150 days from big league games.
  • Best of all: sitting in the ballpark, watching the game, with my dad.
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24 November 2011

Woe Unto He Who Signs the Best Free-Agent Pitcher


The Yankees have wisely locked up CC Sabathia through 2018 for the GDP of Cote D'ivoire, but woe unto the franchise that wins the C.J. Wilson sweepstakes.

It's a thin market for quality starters this winter, leaving the Rangers' worm-killing ground ball specialist as the prize mound offering. The market appears poised to present the 31-year-old lefty with something like a six-year contract worth in the vicinity of $90 million. This could work out well. The roulette ball could land on 17. Neither is the way to bet.

First, let's review recent large, long-term contracts: CC Sabathia ($161 million), Johan Santana ($137.5 million), Barry Zito ($126 million), Mike Hampton ($121 million), Cliff Lee ($120 million), Kevin Brown ($105 million), Carlos Zambrano ($91.5 million), Mike Mussina ($88.5 million), John Lackey and A.J. Burnett ($82.5 million). Smell anything there?

That's 10 mega-contracts with two successes (Mussina and Sabathia's first contract with NY) and one that remains to be seen (Lee). All but one of the remaining deals face-planted like a drunken klutz. (That Santana has returned just 14.4 wins against replacement over the first four years of his Mets tenure at the cost of $78 million is due entirely to missing 45 starts over the last three years. He's owed at least $55.5 million over the next two years, which will really determine the efficacy of his signing.)

With the exception of Burnett, all the pitchers above had long track records of ace-level performance. Their new teams celebrated their contract negotiating "victory." D'Oh!

C.J. Wilson does not have a long track record of success; indeed, he has just two years as a starter on his resume. He has impressively delivered nearly 10 wins against replacement in those two seasons while toiling 200+ innings. His ERAs of 3.35 and 2.94 are all the more impressive coming in a hitter's park. On the other hand, he delivered up-and-down performances as a reliever in the five seasons prior.

Wilson is also older than most of the pitchers named above. A six-year deal brings him to age 36. Wilson's age worries me less -- what with just 708 career innings -- than the increased uncertainty attendant to each added year of a contract. A $90 million outlay requires 20 wins above replacement to pay off. That's three MVP-level seasons, four or five All Star-level seasons or six very good seasons of work, a taller order than Wilson is likely to measure up to.

There's one more pretty serious demerit on Wilson's balance sheet: the Rangers don't appear particularly eager to sign him to a market deal. Research shows that teams fare better when they re-sign incumbent free agents, presumably because they know more about the labor being offered. That the Rangers are skeptical should signal to other clubs that a similar attitude is in order.

Nolan Ryan and Braindrizzling seem to agree: caveat emptor on C.J. Wilson.
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23 November 2011

Taking A Page From MLB


Dear Congress,

You probably haven't paid too much attention to Major League Baseball recently. Denied the opportunity to grandstand on steroid use (oh, the children!), you've been busy with other things, like failing to fix Social Security. And failing to fix Medicaid. And Medicare. And the budget deficit and the debt and every other problem before you.

You might want to check in with the National Pastime again. See, the Republicans and Democrats of baseball -- owners and players -- have been experimenting with a novel formula. They've been cooperating. I mean with each other. They've decided that the good of the game is more important than which side wins in a false dichotomy showdown.

This year, without a speck of fanfare, the two side inked a five-year deal that will keep the industry humming like a beehive. Players agreed to be HGH-tested and to play in the All-Star game unless truly injured. The owners agreed to improve safety measures and to further level the playing field among teams. They -- choke -- compromised.

As a constituent of the game, I didn't get everything I want. The HGH testing won't occur during the season. The revenue sharing is still sub-optimal. The extra playoffs violate my religion. But on balance, it's an agreement everyone can live with. No animals were harmed in the creation of this compact. (Well, actually, the gloves are leather...)

There may be crackpots on both sides bellyaching about the deal. Fringe nutcases on the owners side who want to hold out for a salary cap. Left-wing loonies in uniform who believe their bodily fluids are inviolable. But those people have been sufficiently sidelined to achieve five more years of peace and prosperity.

Which brings us back to you, Congress. You've been acting like the NBA, what with the ideologues on both sides ruling the day. See where that's gotten us? Your "super" committee has delivered the equivalent of a lockout and cancellation of all games. 

Maybe you'd like to tinker with the baseball formula. Maybe you'd like to mix together some of the good ideas on one side (pay our bills!) with some of the good ideas on the other (stay out of unnecessary wars!) and find some accommodation that we can all live with.

Well, maybe we can't all live with it. The fringe nutcases and the left-wing loonies will have to be sacrificed, like Manny was. The Tea Party Being the Tea Party. Occupy Sanity. For the non-Mannys among us, five years of peace and prosperity would be a good thing. C'mon Congress, take a page from Commissioner Bud and Executive Director Michael Weiner. 

Less NBA; more MLB!

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22 November 2011

Why I Love the BCS


I'm the guy. The one guy in America who loves the BCS. The one guy who thinks it's fair and that it works and that it's better than whatever system you're proposing.

And the evidence is all around you. 

Right now, LSU is undefeated. One of its vanquished, Alabama, sits in second place, awaiting an LSU stumble. The Tigers have yet to defeat #3 Arkansas and #13 Georgia to remain in the title hunt. (This is irrational, of course. The voters have no understanding of the concept of a game-and-a-half lead. LSU should be free to lose one of its games and remain #1, since it would have the same number of losses as its closest competitors, but against a more impressive schedule. But that's a fight for another day.)

In other words, despite slaying every foe that's challenged them, including two top 10 opponents, the Tigers are still in must-win mode. Why? Because the BCS is just a two-team playoff.

Suppose we had an eight-team playoff instead -- as many BCS-haters demand. Where would the intrigue be now? LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Oregon, Stanford and Boise State would have locked up spots in the playoff. The LSU-Arkansas tussle (and the LSU-Alabama showdown before it) would be irrelevant. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State wins this weekend would pretty much cement the field. You could attempt to make a desultory case for undefeated Houston (signature win: a four-point home decision over UCLA) ahead of Oregon, but that's at least a four-beer argument. ZZZzzzzz.

The uncertainty and excitement fomented by a two-team playoff based on the whims of voters is vastly more fun. And it trickles down. I can tell you firsthand that the prospect of the home state Clemson Tigers being one ACC win from the Orange Bowl is mouth-watering here in South Cackalacky. (Don't worry: they'll Clemson it up.) I'm sure the possibility of BCS bowl appearances for traditional also-rans like Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Boise State, Stanford and Oklahoma State are thrilling the hometown crowds.

So hooray for the BCS, the ignorant voters, the mis-programmed computers, the lack of head-to-head action. When every regular season game feels like a playoff, you've got the right formula.
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19 November 2011

Pirates Get Closer to Playoffs


Think back to the searing excitement of the Dayton play-in games that blast off the NCAA basketball tournament. Remember how you wore out the edge of your seat awaiting the winner of the Northern Southeast Idaho Ag & Tech-Mildred P. McGillicutty game.

Great news! Baseball has just recreated the same heart-stopping sudden death format for its playoffs.

Starting next year, another Wild Card team will be added, so that after 162 games, a one-game tournament will determine who goes on to face a division-winner in the league division series.

The good news is that failing to win a division will have its consequences.

The bad news is that a yet-lesser team gets into the playoffs. The bad news is that the postseason gets yet another day longer. The bad news is that the Yankees and Red Sox become that much more likely to earn a berth every year. The bad news is that a team with a seven-game Wild Card edge can be ousted from contention by a vastly inferior opponent after one game. The bad news is that the more common a postseason berth, the less valued. The bad news is that this makes the baseball playoffs even less interesting and the regular season even less urgent.

The bad news is that on balance, this is bad news.

18 November 2011

Halladay Cheer for Clayton Kershaw


D'Oh! The baseball writers have already crowned their NL pitcher of the year, tabbing Clayton Kershaw over Roy Halladay. It's never too late to critique it.

In a nutshell, this is a two-horse race and it's a photo finish. The two men pitched the same number of innings. Halladay relinquished two more earned runs, one run fewer overall. They had similar records, though a 12-1,1.31 second half gave Kershaw the shinier numbers. Halladay walked 54% fewer batters; Kershaw whiffed 13% more. Kerhsaw allowed one less baserunner every two games.

I can't fault anyone for giving Kershaw the trophy, though I would have selected Halladay. Chavez Ravine is a Cy Young machine, and Kershaw gets to pitch regularly against the weenie bats of San Francisco and San Diego. On the other hand, the 23-year-old southpaw went mano-a-mano with Tim Lincecum four times and beat him 2-1 in three of them -- and 1-0 once.

Halladay greetings might include a BABIP reference, with Kershaw's an unusually low .274. (Halladay's was a more typical .305.) But the .274 mark is par for the course with Kershaw, and can't be chalked up just to chance.

So take your pick. A majority of the BBWAA picked Kershaw; I'd pick Halladay; but either way, you've got a worthy winner.
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16 November 2011

Least Valuable Player Is A Dunn Deal


In the midst of the discussion of MLB's best, a brief respite is in order to consider the worst player in the game in 2011.

In one sense, it's a short discussion. Hanging on the noose of a four-year, $56 million contract, the White Sox had no choice but to continue playing Adam Dunn in the hope that he could rediscover some semblance of the player who boomed 38 or more big flies and posted .850+ OPS in each of the past seven seasons. 

Evidently, Dunn was hiding better than they thought. Despite batting .159 with 11 home runs, Dunn continued to collect plate appearances -- 496 in all. He cost the Sox 22 runs at the plate compared to a replacement player, and despite DHing most of the season, subtracted another couple of runs in the field. His .159/.292/.277 reflects only one positive accomplishment -- the ability to coax 75 walks. Alas, the guy runs like molasses going uphill.

Dunn was beyond awful, of course, and shockingly so, but much of his wretchedness lies in his continued presence in the batting order.

For pure, unadulterated stinkbomb, there's Tampa first-sacker Dan Johnson. In 90 plate appearances, Johnson accumulated seven singles, six walks, two home runs and a double, and got himself plunked once (woo-hoo!). He made 74 outs. His slash stats are not for the eyes of young children or those with pacemakers: .119/.187/.202, costing the Rays nearly 10 runs in parts of just 31 games.

In the world of "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately," Johnson will go down as a . . . hero. Johnson's last at-bat erased a season of wanton dreadfulness. Down 7-6 in the ninth inning of Game 162, Johnson crashed a two-out, two-strike pitch from NYY reliever Corey Wade into the foul pole to keep Tampa's season alive. They won in the 12th to slip into the playoffs.

Rays fans will recall Johnson fondly, but in a very real sense, he was the worst player in the majors this year.
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NL MVP: Like Pizza for Thanksgiving


I have two words for you on the NL MVP race: context matters. 

If it didn't, the 2011 resumes of Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun would be nearly indistinguishable. Consider them side by side:

Braun: .332/.397/.597, 33 homers and 33 of 39 steals. 
Kemp: .324/.399/.586, 39 homers and 40 of 51 steals.

Now consider the context:
1. Braun plays in a neutral park for hitting. Kemp plays in a ravine.
2. Braun is cocooned in the batting order in front of the #3 MVP candidate, Prince Fielder (.981 OPS) and slugger Corey Hart (.868 OPS), and behind Rickie Weeks  (.818). Kemp swims alone in a vast ocean. There's not another .800 OPS wearing blue, and besides Andre Ethier, no one's even close.

In context, Kemp was a slightly better offensive force in 2011. That might not be enough for some voters to compensate for Braun's role as best player on a division-winning team. But here are two more words:

Defense matters.

Here's two more:

A lot.

Matt Kemp is a good fielder in the most critical outfield position, centerfield. Ryan Braun is not just a butcher, but a baker and candlestick maker in left field -- or wherever the Brews attempt to hide him. He reminds me of a woman on my co-ed softball team named Judy K. We called her Special K and played her behind the right fielder in an attempt to make her invisible. It wasn't necessary -- whenever the ball flew her way she vacated the space.

So Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun were both timed at 10 seconds in their leg of the 4x100-meter dash, but Kemp had to cover an extra five meters into a headwind and never drops the baton. It's kind of a chasm. Baseball Reference, which is actually pretty kind to Braun defensively, says Kemp was worth 10 wins compared to a replacement player; Braun was worth 7.7 wins. Two-point-three wins is a huge difference -- just ask the Braves and Red Sox. It surpasses the entire value of the Cubs' Carlos Pena, who pounded 28 jacks and had an .819 OPS.

Matt Kemp is the NL MVP regardless of how middling was the team around him or that he led the NL in RBIs. Braun, Fielder, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki all merit consideration -- in the same way that pizza merits consideration on Thanksgiving. It's a delicious choice generally speaking, but not in this case.
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13 November 2011

Fifty Million Cheese Steaks


The stathead universe is all atwitter (in some cases literally) over Ruben Amaro's latest contract monstrosity. The Phillies GM has thrown 50 million cheese steaks at Jonathan Papelbon for four years of closing. 

Clearly, this kind of fiscal frivolity is a sign of the apocalypse. No relief pitcher is "worth" $50 million for pitching 60 innings-a-year, even 60 high leverage innings. Moreover, there is no more fickle bird than the closer. The Phillies know this all too well, having spotted Brad Lidge $38 million for three years during a stellar 2008 season only to watch him disassemble in '09 and '10. Over the contract's three years, Lidge rewarded the Phillies with a 1-11, 5.08 RA and 59 saves in 124 innings, with four trips to the DL as a special bonus.

Papelbon has been the second or third best closer in the majors over the last five years (16-16, 1.88 RA and 184 saves in 268 innings, plus a sterling 5.3 K/BB ratio). He's 31, the same age at which Lidge began his figurative journey south, but a different kind of pitcher who can withstand losing a tick or two on his fastball without heinous damage.

The larger point is that the Phils are all in for 2012 and maybe 2013. There's no point in crashing one of baseball's all-time great starting staffs on the shoals of Antonio Bastardo closing. (Man, that name is the gift that keeps on giving.) Inasmuch as every team over-values closers, the market has been set around where the Phils paid, so if they want a great closer, that's what it takes.

Could someone else -- say the A's -- produce a nearly-equal closer out of smoke for a-tenth of the price? Sure, but the Phils don't want the best value. They want the best player. They want a World Championship. That's why they eschewed a $44 million deal with Ryan Madson, the incumbent Philadelphia closer.

That's what separates the big revenue teams from the small ones. Small revenue teams set a spending limit and recognize that there's an opportunity cost to each acquisition. Teams like NYY, Boston and Philly pay what it costs to assemble the best club. And that's what Rueben Amaro is trying to do.
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12 November 2011

AL MVP: Pay No Attention to Runs Scored and RBIs


One of the meaty questions entering the 2011 season was how much of his 2010 slugging value Jose Bautista could maintain. The 31-year-old Dominican went from '02 Hyundai to '11 Lexus in his seventh Major League season, pacing the majors with 54 home runs and leaving the Blue Jays to wonder whether a bucket of bolts or a racing car would return for the following year.

Bautista answered that by losing 11 home runs, 21 RBIs . . . and playing even better. He again led the circuit with 43 dingers, raised his batting average 45 points to .305, reached safely a Bondsian 44.7% of the time and terrified the opposition into a league-leading 24 intentional walks. His MLB-tops 1.055 OPS was impressive even for a right-fielder, but Bautista also spotted up at his natural position -- third base -- for 25 games.

Some will cluck at the Blue Jays' win total and Bautista's relatively subdued R and RBI totals (105 and 103), but all three depend on teammates. Bautista knocked himself in more times than anyone else, and he contributed no less to his team's pitching efforts (Toronto was 25th in the majors) than any other everyday player on the MVP ballot. Baseball Reference says Joey Bats provided 8.1 offensive wins, decent defense, and some lineup flexibility because of his aptitude at two positions.

The only real knock against Bautista is that he committed all his mayhem in the first half, tapping out just 12 home runs and a .442 SLG in the final 81 games.

Bautista's top competitor with the bat is Miguel Cabrera. Miggy led the league in hitting (.344) and OBP (.448), and posted a second-best OPS of 1.033, but had all the mobility of a beanbag chair on the bases and at the least-important defensive position. Tie goes to the good-glove third baseman, and it's not even a tie. Baseball Reference says Cabrera's within half a win of offensive value to Bautista, but drops another win behind when considering defense.

Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury is also worth mentioning. After an injury-riddled 2010 and deep concerns about his centerfield defense, the 27-year-old Oregonian nearly doubled his career totals in doubles and RBI and smashed 32 home runs, 12 more than in his previous four years combined. His .321/.376/.552 can't hold a candle to the above-mentioned, but at his position, Ellsbury was nearly as irreplaceable. Nevertheless, even accounting for his position and his refined glovework (much better routes on flyballs), Ellsbury is an honorable mention candidate.

(Ironically, Ellsbury's best season by far came at the price of his greatest gift. After swiping 136 bases in 3+ seasons and failing just 24 times, an 85% success rate, his steals total dropped in 2011 to 39 at a 72% rate.)

Two other candidates will be named by the ignorenti. Curtis Granderson posted gaudy runs scored and RBI totals thanks to a stacked Yankee lineup, and his team won the division. He plays a fair center field too. But at .262/.364/.552, the Grandy Man might not even be the MVP of his team (that honor might belong to Robby Cano).

Then there's the elephant in the room: Justin Verlander. I've already paid homage to the AL King of the Hill, but pitchers have their own award and comparing them to everyday players is an apples-to-giraffes enterprise. That explains why the seamheads can't get their stories straight on the Bautista-Verlander matchup: Baseball Reference says it's a tossup; Baseball Prospectus rates Bautista more than two wins better. 

There's another player who merits mention, even though he's not an MVP candidate. The World Series brought Mike Napoli into national focus, but he smacked the ball around all season.  In just 113 games, the C/1B/DH/ pounded 25 doubles and 30 homers, batted .320 and posted a 1.045 OPS. He presented himself at the plate just 432 times, but still managed to accrue six wins of value. He accomplished all this pillowed in the comfort of the Rangers' lineup and The Ballpark in Arlington, so take it all with a grain of salt, but a full season of that would have inserted him into the MVP discussion.

Bottom line: give the Cy to Verlander and the MVP to Bautista and all's right with the American League.
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08 November 2011

Royals Win First of the Year


The Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants consummated a trade this week in which, not withstanding the relocation of a minor leaguer, each relinquished and received the exact same thing. But the Royals won the trade.

KC sent centerfielder Melky Cabrera to the Bay for fireballer Jonathan Sanchez. Both players enter their walk years. Each will be easily replaced by the club that sent him packing -- Cabrera by a ripe prospect and Sanchez by a stacked rotation. Each has mad skills but frustrated managers.

Cabrera, at 27, comes off his best year thanks mostly to a .305 batting average. Sanchez, 29 comes off another confounding season in which his high heat was too high nearly as often as it was too hot. Each has been a below average performer most of his career, but has shown one season's flash of excellence.

Here's the difference: hitters tend to be what they are, only more so as they reach their late 20s/early 30s. With pitchers, the career arc is so much less predictable. Sanchez is more likely to flame out than Cabrera, but he's also more likely to find himself and hurl KC up the ladder to mediocrity. Which would you rather have: a fourth outfielder (on a team of fourth outfielders) who's two clicks above replacement level or a pitcher who's equally likely to be tossed mid-season as to mow down batters Cy Young-style?

That's not to say that SF GM Brian Sabean shouldn't have made the deal. He got something of non-zero value for an expendable part. But his KC counterpart, Dayton Moore, lived up to his surname.
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06 November 2011

In the Land of Ver, the Three-Armed Man is Runner-up


It will come as no surprise to you, nor even to the nation's baseball writers association, that Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the American League this year.

Verlander pitched more innings, won more games, had a better winning percentage, threw more quality starts, had a lower ERA, struck out more batters, had a better K/BB ratio, allowed a lower WHIP, produced a higher VORP & WARP, contributed more good sound bites and helped more little old ladies across the street than any other Junior Circuit hurler. According to Baseball Reference, Verlander was worth 30% more to the Tigers (8.6 wins against replacement) than the league's next best pitcher (Jered Weaver) was to the Angels (6.6 WARP).

The baseball writers could not have an easier choice unless Michele Bachmann squares off against my cat for president. (Tater in '12!)

This yawning chasm is no affront to Weaver. A marvelous performer with an 82-47, 3.31 lifetime line for the Halos, Weaver delivered 58% better results than league average this year, accumulating an 18-8, 2.41 line. He whiffed three-and-a-half times as many batters as he walked, and held opponents to seven hits per game. 

It's just that in the land of Ver, that's the warm-up act. The Tiger righty went 25-4, 2.40, whiffed nearly four-and-a-half times as many batters as he walked and held opponents to six hits per game. He delivered 70% better results than league average.

So let's get this one out of the way first, because the AL Cy Young vote is more old-style Libyan than new style. The result is entirely predictable and the winner will get between 99% and 100% of the vote.
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05 November 2011

If A Series Goes Extras and the TV is Off . . .


The 2011 World Series was one for the ages. 

At least that's what everyone tells me. Most of the drama happened after my bedtime.

That's probably why I was such a humbugger when it ended. When I hit the sack after the 7th inning of Game Six, the Rangers were up 7-4. I never saw the tying fireworks. Or the overtime heroics. Or the winning homer. Never heard Joe Buck's call for the ages.

Hearing about it later is no substitute. I didn't experience the drama. I went to work the next day rested, instead.

Absent that one night, STL-TEX isn't even noteworthy, much less among the great ones. 1960: Maz's home run. 1967: Gibson over the Red Sox, 1968: Lolich and the Tigers beat Gibson. 1975: Fisk's home run not enough. 1979: We Are Family comes back from 3-1. 1986: the Mets storm back. 1991: A 10-inning, 1-0 Game Seven caps the greatest World Series of all time. 2001: D-backs dramatically foil NY's 9/11 victory. (The great ones of the first 55 years escape my worldview.) Since so many of us didn't see the Game Six pyrotechnics, it really didn't feel all that special. Wait, sounds like humbugging again.

On the other hand, no manager has produced the post-Series drama Tony LaRussa uncorked this year. Good for him. His ticket to Cooperstown has 2016 written on it.
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On the Ep Swing


Dear, dear benighted Cub fans. Your ship has indeed come in. But don't expect the riches to disembark just yet.

Newly-hired team president Theo Epstein and his minions are the real deal. Freed from the shackles of penury, Jed Hoyer will provide a bonanza to Chicago. Whoever is hired, the new manager will share the winning philosophy that the Epstein team plants at Wrigley. Brains, patience and money are a potent combination and they are in abundance on the North side.

The challenge facing them, besides 29 other teams intent on success at their expense, is the current  team composition. Epstein takes over a franchise laden with useless baggage that can't be thrown overboard -- at least not at a dear cost. Previous owners and management signed outrageous deals with cartoon characters whose actual baseball value is nil or less.

Take Alfonso Soriano. Please. The previous Cub administration took one look at his speed and power, and his one good year in Washington (.277/.351/.560 with 41 of 58 steals and improved outfield defense) and bestowed upon him an eight-year $133 million contract that he wasn't worth even if paid in Monopoly money. That deal has $54 million left as Soriano enters his baseball dotage. He hasn't been a factor on the basepaths in three years, plays the outfield as if he's searching for a lost contact lens and has a .308 on-base percentage over the last three seasons. For their $57 million, the Cubs have gotten two wins over a replacement player total since 2009. And they're in for worse.

Soriano is emblematic of the Cubs' problem. Only two of their 2011 starters took more walks than Ironside. Their team on-base percentage was a meager .314, despite playing in the (hitter-) friendly confines. For $39 million, the Cubs got .262/.323/.418 out of their outfield trio of Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome. (They swapped Fuku to Cleveland for a pair of farmhands in July.) The new management team may preach patience at the plate, but 36-year-olds who earn 27 free passes in 500 at-bats aren't suddenly morphing into Jason Giambi.

For another $32+ million, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano delivered a combined ERA 20% worse than league average, plus a combined TTA (temper tantrums per annum) of 4.0. (No thanks to Dempster on that one.)

The Cubs are stuck with all of the above-mentioned, except Fuku, and will either lose their best player, Aramis Ramirez, to free agency, or empty the bank to keep him. First-baseman Carlos Pena's contract has also expired, conveniently paving the way for a big free agent signing splash. Epstein starts the Hot Stove season with a $93 million payroll before half the roster is filled. And without Fukudome, Ramirez and Pena, only two of the 11 remaining batters with 100 plate appearances had OBPs above .325, and none is above .350.

So the OBP problem will not be solved overnight. The flotsam and jetsam will take at least a year to clear out. Unless Big Z stands for Zoloft, he's going to continue to plague the clubhouse. And no matter the skipper, an organizational transformation takes more than one year. The immediate forecast is bleak, but have no doubt, the ship of state finally has a working navigation system and a captain and crew who know which way to steer.
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01 November 2011

Bollocks to Moneyball


Upon his retirement, Tony LaRussa, a successful innovator and sure-fire Hall of Famer, "ridiculed 'Moneyball' and its emphasis on statistics over human scouting and observation" according to the Associated Press.

Critics have smiled on Moneyball, the movie, but LaRussa has described why I was uneasy about the book and have no plans to see the film.

Moneyball, the book, cast statheads as cowboys and scouts as Indians (feather, not dot or Cleveland varieties). The analogy is apt because the relationships are far more messy and complicated. Scouts, like seamheads, are necessary but insufficient for the proper functioning of a Major League baseball franchise.

The real debate was never between stats and scouts, it was between useful stats and misleading stats. That's why the St. Louis Cardinals employ number-crunchers, just as every MLB team does, to help reveal some of the game's hidden insights. Over the years, new analysis has exploded long-held myths, including Larussa's signature creation, the folly of saving your best reliever for ninth-inning mop-up when you could employ him to put out fires in other innings. Maybe that's why LaRussa is sore.

Or maybe he's sick of the false dichotomy. LaRussa knows better than Bill James' personal guru how Matt Holliday feels today or whether Chris Carpenter can go on short rest or if John Jay can be relied on to drop a bunt. Team number crunchers have a better handle on the general efficacy of a bunt in a given situation.

In fact, LaRussa has been most renowned for his pitching match-ups, a strategy fully infused with both scouting and stats. The guy with the binoculars on LaRussa's left shoulder whispers that the opposing batter hates the high heat thrown by the righty in the pen. The SABR dude on his right shoulder notes that the batter has a .650 OPS against southpaws in day games. LaRussa's particular genius was to be open to surprising information, synthesize it and act on it.

Moneyball correctly cast Billy Beane and his band of mavericks as explorers who had found new worlds and were benefiting from the small competitive advantages they conveyed. There is absolutely no question that statistical research can unlock mysteries and disprove old customs in the game, though those advantages are becoming more nuanced and less impactful as the practice has become widespread. Likewise, there's no doubt that observation can reveal nuances unnoticed by the statistics. But unlike stats, observation can be corrupted by human psychology -- things like confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance -- that has no power over the null hypothesis or a two-tailed test.

Here's a World Series example of the two at work: Mid-year, this blog noted the amazing performance of young Ranger starter Alexi Ogando, who twirled a 9-3, 2.92 line with a .591 OPS-against. Spectacular, but with a .241 BABIP and some other component statistics pointing the wrong way, I suggested a decline was in order. Furthermore, Ogando had reached his professional career high for innings by July. The Rangers  noted this, not to mention his 4-5, 4.48 performance in the second half, and downgraded him to the pen, where innings aren't so readily available.

A statmonger could guess that Ogando was gassed. I'm betting that keen observers like LaRussa and his staff could see it. In any case, the Cards feasted on Ogando for 14 baserunners and four runs in only seven outs. (To be fair, he was great in 9.2 innings of AL playoff service.)

The bottom line is that teams fare best when statisticians and scouts respect and rely on each other for confirmation of what they believe they've found. It's time to forget the false dichotomy perpetrated by Moneyball and just accept stats and scouts for what they are. 
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