25 December 2010

Braindrizzling In Review


Every year following the NFL draft, all the little Mel Kipers hurl plaudits and bric-a-brats at the various organizations for their picks. It always rankles me that they never review their own track record so we can determine whether their opinions are wheat or chaff. My guess is that they are no better at evaluating talent than the average GM. They're just as likely, I'd bet, to extol Ryan Leaf and whiff on Demarcus Ware as is the NFL braintrust.

Which reminds us that it's time for a Braindrizzling Year In Review, where we emancipate the year's statements from the archives and examine them in the light of hindsight. Although there are few actual predictions in this blog, there's plenty of gazing into crystal balls. Let's see.

YER OUT!
There were a couple of mis-interpretations over the course of 131 posts. The worst won't make the list. That would be the post in which I slammed the baseball writers for bestowing a Gold Glove on Derek Jeter. E-Scribe! The players and managers vote for that one. Mea culpa...and theirs too.

Our Better Angels -- In a series on interesting teams in 2010, I posited that the Angles would outplay the sabermetric forecasts of a sub-.500 season because of Mike Scioscia's magic touch and Arte Moreno's deep pockets. Wrong! I forgot to anticipate Kendry Morales's broken leg or the demise of the back end of the rotation. 80-82 is sub-.500, bub.

Boarding the D-train -- Dontrelle Willis tamed the walk tiger in his first start, prompting me to gush about his future. Bzzzzt! Now that it's his past, we see he has no more future in the Major Leagues. Willis made nine starts for Detroit in which he walked 29 and fanned 33 in 43 innings with a 4.98 ERA. After they kicked him to the curb, the desperate D-backs endured six starts of  a 6.85 ERA with a 14/27 K/BB ratio. I wish Dontrelle a lovely career as a baseball announcer.

All We Have To Fear Is... -- The Yankees themselves! I whined about the inevitability of a Yankees- Phillies World Series. Thhhppp! To be fair, I didn't really believe it so much as fear it. Nothing is inevitable in baseball playoffs, especially when AJ Burnett is starting.

STEEE-RIKE!
Some ideas are not quite either wrong or right. These were foul balls with two strikes.

Oye Como Va -- After three starts, Johan Santana looked to me like, well, the Johan Santana he'll never be again. Though his stats didn't reflect improvement, they were listing in the direction of one bad inning. I noted his 18 K in 18 innings and foresaw another Cy-worthy year. Hmm. He's no Roy Halladay, but unless your team plays near a Liberty Bell, you'd covet a guy who throws 199 innings at a 2.98 ERA, even in a pitcher's park. Santana was worth 5.6 wins against a replacement pitcher. That's still swell.

The Home of the Braves -- In another post on intriguing teams, I observed that Atlanta was a mile wide and an inch deep. With the breakout seasons of Jayson Heyward, Omar Infante and Martin Prado, the lineup turned out wider and deeper than I expected. The Nakahomas finished out of the tournament, as I'd anticipated, but at 91-71, better than I'd envisioned.

HITS
With all due disrespect, there were a lot of these. Behold.

Traded to His Family -- Twice I begged Ken Griffey, Jr. to retire lest he resemble Muhammad Ali fighting Larry Holmes. Did he listen? Well, yes, eventually. But not before slugging .184/.250/.204 in 108 painful at-bats and then falling asleep mid-game.

Hitting the Mark -- Mark Reynolds remains for me the most fascinating player in baseball. Reynolds' spectacular '09 was built on an unsustainable BABIP of .423. I mentioned that he's a great player if he bats .260, but that's a tall order for a guy who fans one-third of the time. Sure enough, despite smacking 32 homers and walking 83 times, he was worth just nine runs against replacement value to Arizona because of a .198 batting average.

Beat the Mets -- I said the Mets' stars and scrubs lineup would be a train wreck. Do I get a cookie?

Too Much of a Good Thing is...Wonderful -- New England fans were hankering for a trade as valuable assets Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell collected splinters. I noted that the rest of the infield was aging, fixing to get injured and in need of backup. I didn't realize the team would hit its medical deductible in the first month, but they surely had to appreciate having Tek and Lowell to fill in.

SIERA MIST -- Raise a glass to the seamheads at Baseball Prospectus, whose advanced pitching metrics noted that 90% of Ubaldo Jimenez's 13-1, 1.15 start was half luck. Unusually good strand rates, BABIP, relief help and run support all suggested that Jimenez was combining good -- not great -- pitching with extraordinary luck, a volatile cocktail. After brewing a 15-1, 2.20 first half, UJ spilled his drink in the second, and the result was 4-7, 3.80. His 19-8, 2.88 final line didn't attract a single Cy Young vote. I get the credit for reporting it, but they did all the work.

THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT! THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT!
There were two outright predictions here and they both paid off big. Literally.

I'm Going To Disney Land -- Last January, I told you to put money on the "under" in the Super Bowl. In fact, I told you to put money on the double-under. I told my bookie the same thing. My reasoning was the over/under of 57 required the game to be a track meet. But football analysts, savants though they are, have all the predictive ability of hurricane forecasters. With the double-under set at 49, the Saints downed the Colts 31-17. Cha-ching!

Oh, Votto Beautiful Morning -- Here is the entire March 26 post.

The winner of this year's Ben Zobrist Award for the best player who came out of nowhere will be Joey Votto. This is a trick selection. Just because you're not familiar with him doesn't mean the big-swinging, 27-year-old lefty isn't already an accomplished Major League hitter.

The Reds' first baseman, Votto has been pounding Major League pitching for two years and a coffee break. His .310/.388/.536 resume may be (Great American) Ballpark-aided, but 53 homers and 77 doubles in a thousand at-bats is hard to argue with.

Votto enters his third full season ready to explode. With a couple of full campaigns under his belt, with an increasing walk rate and with an improving team around him, the big Canadian is channeling Justin Morneau in the Queen City. His .414 OBP in an injury-trimmed season last year suggests a full year of Votto could catapult him into the MVP discussion in '10.

If that happens, you'll hear of him. And you'll wonder, where did this guy come from? Well, a pretty good place.


Oh, you heard of him all right. So did the MVP voters. Don't say I didn't warn you.

SO...
That's a pretty good batting average, even in a hitter's park, against a weak schedule, with a high BABIP and a low walk rate. I hope to score as well in '11.

I wish you a new decade of hanging curves with the bases juiced. Only two months until pitchers and catchers report.
b

20 December 2010

Woebegoing, Woebegoing, Woebegone


A trade this week between the woebegone Kansas City Royals and the woebegetting Milwaukee Brewers has baseball economics' fingerprints all over it. Both teams gave themselves a chance to get better, but only within the confines of an economic system that bequeaths MLB's two smallest markets limited opportunities.

First, some context. KC is the 29th largest metro area in the nation, just behind Orlando and San Antonio, with 2.07 million people. Milwaukee is 39th, with 1.56 million souls, fewer than the Nashville, Providence, Virginia Beach and Austin metro areas. The Milwaukee market fits neatly into the New York market 12 times with enough people left over to fill the city limits of Pittsburgh. That doesn't even account for the encroachment of the neighboring Chicago market that traditionally represented southern Wisconsin fans.

So when the biggest bopping Brewer, Prince Fielder, fixes his sights on one of those juicy nine-figure contracts, Milwaukee brass can't be faulted for considering its options and placing its chips on "win now, while he's still here."

There is no "win now" for the feckless Missouri franchise and there hasn't been any "win then" since 1989. The Royals have notched at least 90 losses in 10 of the last 14 years, interrupted in part by the moral victory of 1998's 72-89 mark. For GM Dayton Moore, the only possible route to relevance is rolling simultaneous sevens with his minor league prospects. Even with Zack Greinke as their ace, the Royals have won just 42.6% of their games the last three years, and his deal is up after next season. Combine that track record with a plastic, 40-year-old home park built five miles into the woods and it's a wonder anyone pays to see their games.

That's why we might want to refrain from slapping our heads when the Royals announce they've filled their outfield gaps with Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera and 162 bottles of aspirin. While the Red Sox are offering Saturday's Mega Lotto Jackpot for Carol Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, Kansas City has just $3.75 million to spend, and a pair of .715 OPS outfielders is all that buys.

Which brings us to the confluence of the Win Now and Roll the Dice rivers. The Brewers considered their team-killing pitching and the closing-window of low-cost performance from offensive stars Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks and decided to chuck the farm system for two shots at a flag. In the NL Central, where the Cards have run out of money after paying Pujols and Holliday; where the Cubs are busy climbing out of a scillion-dollar bad-contract hole; and where the Reds -- the Reds! -- wore the 2010 crown; it's a reasonable gamble.

The Royals, meanwhile, realize that they can come in last without their Cy Young hurler as well as with him, so why not flip him to further stock the farm. Hence, KC's decision to flip Greinke and incumbent shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt for four touted young guys. The deal is one of two recent Milwaukee blockbusters yielding Shaun Marcum and Zack Grienke to join Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Wolf in the suddenly formidable Brewer rotation. 

It's a low percentage move for Kansas City, but the percentage was zero before the trade. Likewise, there'll be hell to pay for the Brewers in 2013, assuming Fielder bolts after this season and Greinke's bill comes due without any farm-grown beef to feed the big club. In the meantime, the NL Central is there for the taking and the Beer Kings are making their claim.  

Maybe it's small ball compared to the giant stakes among the Phils, Saux, Yanks and their ilk, but it's life for the mice of baseball who must scamper as best they can among the elephants.
b

14 December 2010

A Very Tasty Ruben


I live in a small city 750 miles from my big city upbringing. I work in non-profit and earn hundreds of thousands less per year than my college classmates. So I'm feeling Cliff Lee right now. He made a lifestyle choice, opting for quality over quantity. He chose happiness over money. 

The real question raised by Lee's return to the sibling-loving city is this: "Is Ruben Amaro, Jr. the best GM in baseball?"

The five-year pact with Lee is a coup in itself, but it's the American Revolution in context. Amaro correctly deduces that the mountaintop is within reach, but the weather will turn foul after two or three tries. The manufacturer's warranty on Utley's contract, Howard's reflexes, Rollins' health, and Oswalt's fastball all run out eventually, so Amaro is bulking up for the assault today. If he has to cast a few drachma to the wind in years four and five, it's a small price to pay for sticking his flag at the precipice.

Amaro is a Philly native, a Major League scion and eight-year veteran himself and a 1987 Stanford graduate. He was a respected assistant GM under newly-minted Hall of Famer Pat Gillick, taking over immediately following their 2008 World Series championship. Building a champion is one thing; Amaro is constructing the modern version of a dynasty.

Because Dominic Brown is no Jayson Werth, at least not right now, and Carlos Ruiz is no Carlos Ruiz (his '10 BA was 41 points higher than his previous career high), the Phillies' offense may hiccup a bit in 2011, absent another deal. But what's the difference whether they win 8-1 or 3-1? With Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt, middle relievers need not apply. Baseball Think Factory estimates that this is the second greatest foursome entering the season of all time, after the '76 Mets of Seaver, Matlack, Koosman and Mickey Lolich. (Let that serve as a cautionary tale, Phanatics.)

(The great Jayson Stark has a comprehensive review  of this pitching staff's place in history.)

There are now many GMs in baseball who can discern the real value of players and pass on overwrought demands, which Amaro did with Werth. What sets him apart is his ability to understand when to spend too much. Getting Halladay and Lee below market price has enabled him to secure Howard's services a bit richly, swap out for Oswalt and add salary while the turnstyles are clicking. It won't always be that way, but it'll be a great run while it lasts.
b

12 December 2010

A Fire Hose That Melts In High Heat


Did they really build a stadium in Minneapolis whose roof can't withstand 15 inches of snow? 

Isn't that like building levees around New Orleans that will break in a strong hurricane?

The I-95 Balance of Power


Assuming Cliff Lee chooses lucre over loyalty -- and why else hire Scott Boras and drag on negotiations for a month? -- he'll bring seven years of his other-worldly command to the Big Apple, not the Big D. 

Except the sabermetric websites are burning up the ether about the likelihood that Lee's control falls off the Cliff before the pinstripes stop paying him $25 million annually, perhaps long before. K/BB ratios of 10/1, which Lee delivered in 2010, have notoriously short half-lives. Indeed, just three years ago, Lee fanned fewer than two batters for each free pass he issued, leading to a 6.29 ERA and a 5-8 record for Cleveland. Perhaps more than any other pitcher, Lee's ability to retire batters is dependent on his ability to paint the corners on demand.

Knowing that he might deliver four champion-grade seasons before returning to earth for the last $75 million of his contract might perfectly satisfy the brass in the Bronx, where the revenue streams run richer with gold each year. In Arlington, though, that's $75-million the club won't have to spend on, say, an entire infield, including the catcher. That kind of weight can sink a franchise burdened with spending limits, such as, well, everyone but the Yankees.

So assuming Lee leaves Texas and heads north, and considering the other significant off-season moves so far, a familiar phenomenon is shaping up. Other than Chicago, where the White Sox muscled up with Adam Dunn, the flow of talent has almost exclusively migrated northeast. The Yankees shored up their single largest weakness by acquiring Lee, the Red Sox added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the returns of Dustin Pedroia and Mike Cameron, and the rest of baseball serves, to some degree or another, as their minor leagues. We can only guess which new superstar -- Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, Felix Hernandez -- is simply auditioning for the big spenders.

Looking ahead to 2011, fans in San Diego, Texas, San Francisco, and Minnesota might want to temper their expectations. The Padres dealt away 78% of their team VORP (value over replacement player; i.e., how much players are worth on offense compared to AAA replacements at their positions. This is another way of saying that San Diego almost made the playoffs in 2010 with a lineup of Adrian Gonzalez and the Brady Bunch kids. In 2011, it looks like Florence Henderson will be suiting up too.)

The Evil Empire will have sucked the life-giving force from the Rangers, whose center-fielder will have to play in '11 without the magic pixie dust that transformed him into an MVP in '10. The Twins get back Justin Morneau, which seems to be the kiss of death for them, and the Giants have already won their once-every-56-years flag.

And, of course, there's St. Petersburg. The imbalance of power has swung even more forcefully to the AL Beasts in NY and Boston and it's hitting the Rays squarely in the butt. The Rise and Fall of the Tampa Bay Empire will cover three years. Without any blockbuster free agent pickups left for bidding we have a pretty good sense how things are shaping up.

Plus, the Yankees now have the sexiest mascot in the majors.
b

09 December 2010

Yo, Adrian!


Ron from Boston asks,
Why do the Sox think that they are  better off w/Gonzalez then Beltre?  Gonzalez may be better (and maybe, in Fenway, even better than we've already seen), but based on last year they bring quite comparable offensive and defensive skills to the team.  (You dismiss Beltre's 2010 as a walk-year anomaly, but it's not really inconsistent with the ups and downs he's had throughout his career.) 

And the cost of the upgrade to Gonzalez is 3 highly rated prospects and probably about $10 million/yr. in payroll, assets that could be used to improve the team in other ways.  I don't see that the upgrade is worth the cost.

Here's why Theo and I prefer Adrian over Adrian. Guess what the following is:

91-97-98-163-93-105-112-108-103-141

Those are Adrian Beltre's OPS+ for the last 10 years. (OPS+ is a player's on-base + slugging compared to league average, on a scale of 100. An OPS of 91 is 9% below average.) Pretty inconsistent, and unimpressive other than two years, right?

Wait, I pulled the hidden ball trick. Let's finish the list:

91-97-98-163 (walk year)-93-105-112-108-103-141 (walk year). Would you buy that stock at 141?

With Beltre, you pay Adrian Gonzalez money and get Alex Gonzalez until Christmas Eve, and the prospect of Santa's arrival.

This year's version of Omar Minaya (whoever that is) will pay 141 OPS+ money for Adrian Beltre over five years and get four years of 103 OPS+. Meanwhile, the Saux shuffle that cash to a more productive Adrian.

With the signing of Carl Crawford, Boston now has a solid infield anchored by A-Gone and Youk, and an outfield that reads more like an Olympic 4x100 relay team -- Crawford, Cameron and Ellsbury. (JD Drew, who stole 49 of 65 bases his first three years, is the slowpoke here.) Good luck to any batted ball intending to land in that outfield.

These two deals also eliminate any uncertainty about Cliff Lee's whereabouts in April. The Yankees now must empty the vault for the only remaining significant upgrade available. Finishing second in that contest will lead to the same result in the standings.
b

06 December 2010

Swinging Bunts


Been quite a hot stove already and they haven't even lit the pilot light at the Winter Meetings. The Nats watched Adam Dunn depart and signed Jayson Werth for too much for too long to hit much less than Dunn. On the other hand, he can run and catch, two skills missing from the Dunn collection.

After Kenny Williams inked Dunn for the Sox, he started after incumbent first baseman Paul Konerko. That would push Dunn to his natural defensive position -- DH -- and give Chicago some mid-lineup oomph. Next, they'll need some relief pitching with the departures of Bobby Jenks and Scott Linebrink.

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Jed Hoyer appears to be continuing his apprenticeship to Theo Epstein, despite his new employment as Padres GM. Epstein schooled him out of Adrian Gonzalez for a trio of minor league maybes. Boston can move Kevin Youklis to third and let Adrian Beltre convert his walk-year revival into someone else's over-payment. It's an offensive coup and a defensive wash. A-Gone makes the difficult transition to the tougher league, but leaves Petco pitcher-heaven for the Fens. In the unlikely event Gonzalez leaves town after a year, the Sox get two sandwich picks (between the first and second rounds) to replace the stash they sent San Diego.

As for the Friars, that bottled lightning of '10 won't strike again in '11. They managed not to get back a single majors-ready player for the best hitter they've had in a decade. Find them at the bottom of the NL West playing to near-empty stadiums next year.

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Shaun Marcum is 37-25, 3.85 in the brutal AL Beast with all the chocolaty wholesome goodness that accompanies that pedigree. Plus he's 28 and earns less than a million dollars. So naturally, Toronto jettisoned Marcum for ... a minor leaguer. Man, that had better be some fantastical minor leaguage. (Word is that 2B Brett Lawrie was the Brews' top prospect, and a can't-miss edition at that.)

Actually, it's more sensible than it sounds. Toronto has more good arms than the Israeli military and a black hole where its lineup should be. Milwaukee has Rickie Weeks clogging up the keystone for the foreseeable decade and could always use a reliable #2 starter to bulk up an already above-average staff. The Blue Jays get chocolate in their peanut butter; the Brews get peanut butter in their chocolate.

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Now we know where Mark Reynolds' career will go to die: Baltimore. The O's sent a pair of journeymen relief arms to Arizona for the all-or-nothing cornerman. This is the D-Backs telling Reynolds they just want to be friends. Relief pitchers are easier to find than Waldo in a snowstorm.

Reynolds comes off a year in which he achieved notoriety as the best .198 hitter in history. He smacked 32 homers, walked 83 times and scooped up everything but the infield dirt at the hot corner. Baltimore snags him at a big discount. The question is, what can they do even with him?

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Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford are the big prizes, but the most interesting signing will involve a masochist GM who despises his manager. I wouldn't sign Manny Ramirez and the film rights to his life story for two wooden nickels, but someone's going to commit the GDP of Haiti to him. ($992,657) He can't play the field or stay out of trouble, but someone's going to take a chance that he can still hit. (Answer: with his eyes closed...if he can be bothered to.)

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Baseball's Hall of Shame now includes Pat Gillick; Jesse Haines, a slightly above-average 20s-30s hurler; Johnny Evers, whose .270/.356/.334 lifetime achievement is offset by his unequaled ability to be named in a catchy poem; Phil Rizzuto's mouth; journeyman 19th century outfielder Tommy McCarthy who was worth 19 wins in 13 years over a replacement-level player; and Bowie Kuhn, who was so feckless he couldn't get elected into the Bowie Kuhn Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Shame does not include: all-time great Shoeless Joe Jackson, all-time hits leader Pete Rose; Marvin Miller, who whipped Bowie Kuhn like a rented mule uninterrupted for two decades; and home run savant Mark McGwire. It appears likely that the Hall will also fail to include Barry Bonds, the greatest player of his generation; and Roger Clemens, the greatest pitcher of several generations.

So remind me, what exactly is the purpose of this institution?
b

04 December 2010

A Sad Day In Chicagoland


We lost one of the greats when Ron Santo died from bladder cancer Thursday at the tender age of 70. Santo might just be the best player ever to be considered and passed over for the Hall of Fame.

Santo's numbers are not startling and his teams unimpressive. His .277 average and 342 home runs in 15 seasons with the Cubs don't scream all-time great unless we listen to the echoes. His 1108 walks and 365 doubles helped him post a proud.362/.464 line that translates even 50 points higher when considering that the effective portion of his career -- 1961-72 -- was baseball's modern deadball era. Every year from 1963-1969, Ron Santo hit at least 25% better than average. Add to that his slick fielding at the hot corner and you have a truly great player.

Even more impressive, Santo never let on that he suffered from diabetes from the time he was 18, an often fatal disease 40 years ago. His doctor told the family that he could expect to live to 25. He famously smacked a grand slam once while suffering mid-game hypo-glycemia that was causing him to see triple. 

For this he was awarded 43% of the Hall of Fame vote. At his peak. In his final year of eligibility. 

Ron Santo never came close to an MVP award -- finishing fourth in 1967 -- because he was one of three great batsmen on decidedly mediocre squads. The Northsiders finished 7th-8th-8th-10th-3rd-3rd-2nd (the last three in division play) during his prime and never won a division or pennant -- much less a World Series -- during his career. Had Americans seen Santo play for two weeks straight in the post-season, they would have better appreciated his skills.

Which, ironically, is what many Cubs fans do with respect to Santo the announcer. Following his playing days, Santo spent 20 years pronouncing his love for the team over the airwaves. Beloved for his overt fandom, Ron Santo was below the Mendoza Line (the Rizzuto Line?) when it came to his radio play. He is very likely the single worst announcer of this millenium, and among the silliest and most grating I've ever heard. His admirers credit him with being "one of us in the booth." That is exactly the point. If I wanted to hear the irrational, biased frothing of the average cretin I'd sit in the bleachers with them and forget to drink. 

I don't know which would be sadder, for Ron Santo to be voted access to the Hall by the Veterans Committee now that he can't enjoy it or for Ron Santo to be voted access to the announcer's wing of the Hall despite his utter lack of contributions in that arena. In any case, he belongs in the former and not in the latter, irrespective of his existential status.
b