In my AL MVP critique, I left off two players who belong in the discussion, one on purpose and one accidentally. I've already mentioned in a previous post that while Josh Hamilton's story is remarkable, the MVP should go to the player who's created the most value, not the most good PR, for his team.
Hamilton's .910 OPS is spectacular for a center fielder, but he's really a miscast right fielder pressed into service up the middle. His 32 homers and .307 average are less impressive when you consider the launching pad in which he plays.
Many BBWAA will be bamboozled by Hamilton's nifty RBI collection, but RBIs require RBI opportunities, something Hamilton has in spades hitting in that lineup and in that ballpark.
Grady Sizemore actually has hit one more dinger than Hamilton in a tougher home field and he's a legitimate center fielder. He has added value as a leadoff hitter; unfortunately for the Indians, he was their only hitter for much of the year. His OPS of .882 is three percent lower than Hamilton's, but he's a force on the basebpaths -- 38 steals in 43 attempts.
The verdict on Sizemore, and particularly Hamilton is that they're reasonable Top Ten MVP selections, but the hardware's still saved for Mauer or Pedroia.
28 September 2008
27 September 2008
Up for Grabs
What do Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youklis, Milton Bradley, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Alex Rodriguez and Cliff Lee have in common? Each of them can make a case to be the AL MVP. At the same time, none of them can make a strong case.
Cliff Lee, of course, has been spectacular for the Indians. While his team's offense has sputtered, he's posted a 22-3, 2.54 record and a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 223 innings. He's been not just an innings eater; he's been an innings killer. His value, relative to the value of a AAA-level replacement at his position, has been the highest in the American League.
But pitchers have their own award, which Lee will win over Roy Halladay in Johnson-Goldwater style. Besides, no one really has confidence that there's any way to compare pitchers to everyday players.
Milton Bradley has been the best hitter in the AL when he's been healthy. He's gotten on base safely 44% of the time and pounded 22 homers and 32 doubles in just 500 plate appearances, and played a creditable outfield on those 37 occasions when he's been asked to. The problem with Bradley's candidacy is that during the nearly 40 games he's missed this season, his value to his team has been zero. That and the park effects of whatever they're calling The Ballpark at Arlington these days really hamper his claim.
As is his wont, Alex Rodriguez has been the best player in the AL this year. His .963 OPS, his 11th straight season with 35 homers, his 18 steals in 21 attempts and his good defense at an important position are straight out of MVP Central Casting. But there is no doubt that ARod has peed his pants everytime the Bombers have needed him to come up big.
Dustin Pedroia seems to have a lot of support for AL MVP. He's been the Red Sox sparkplug, hitting safely 38% of the time with surprising power -- 54 doubles and 17 jacks -- while swiping 20 of 21 bags. On top of that, he's an excellent middle infielder. He may not have the numbers of competitiors at DH and first base, but he'd be significantly more difficult to replace.
Paired with Pedroia is Ian Kinsler, whose resume is eerily similar. His on-base percentage matches Pedroia's and he's hit for even more power and succeeded in 26 of 28 steal attempts. He's also a very good second-sacker. But Pedroia gets the edge because he's played nearly 40 more games and batted in a tougher home park for offense.
Carolos Quentin's problem is not just that he's missed 32 games, but the 32 most critical of the year. As the White Sox struggle to hold off the Twins, Quentin can't contribute a thing to his team because of his broken wrist. It's not his fault that he got hit by a pitch, but it's the fact nonetheless. Lo siento, Carlos.
Kevin Youklis is a fine first-bagger with a .965 OPS who has been a steady force on the Red Sox all season, but an MVP? His credentials are more like "she has a nice personality" than "man, she's hot!" Much the same can be said for Justin Morneau, whose .883 OPS as a first baseman is just not MVP material.
I don't know how many baseball writers have slept with Morneau's wife, but something about him engenders love from the baseball media far beyond his baseball accomplishments. We already know he wasn't Deep Throat, right? With the prospect of another Morneau MVP unforeclosed, Bud Selig should agree immediately to apply the video replay rule to the BBWAA vote. That call would get overturned by a knowledgable umpire so fast it would leave Usain Bolt in the dust.
As a matter of fact, Justin Morneau is the second best player on the Twins. Imagine if you could find a guy who hits just as well, but plays a position where hitters are scarcer than truths in a presidential election. Batting champion Joe Mauer's .867 OPS comes out of a squat. The OPS of the next best fulltime AL catcher? Dioner Navarro's .756. That gives Minnesota a giant advantage over other teams.
To beat a dead horse, notice that none of the candidates has been examined in the context of his team's place in the standings. All they can do is contribute wins to their teams by swinging the ash and pumping the leather. Whether those are wins 90-99 or 70-79 is a matter for their teammates to answer for.
One more thing from the equine mortuary: there is little place in this discussion for late season heroics. Why give extra credit to a player who saddles his team with a weak first-half performance and then turns it on in August? How is that better than carrying your team to a big lead and tailing off as the summer turns to Fall? Or just playing consistantly well all 162 games?
Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer are my MVP guys and frankly I'm not sure how to distinguish them. Baseball writers who mark their ballots for ARod or Quentin or Lee will be excused for their mental absence. But if Francisco Rodriguez gets even a third place vote, the perpetrator(s) should be hunted down and forced to watch Pirate games for the next decade.
Cliff Lee, of course, has been spectacular for the Indians. While his team's offense has sputtered, he's posted a 22-3, 2.54 record and a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 223 innings. He's been not just an innings eater; he's been an innings killer. His value, relative to the value of a AAA-level replacement at his position, has been the highest in the American League.
But pitchers have their own award, which Lee will win over Roy Halladay in Johnson-Goldwater style. Besides, no one really has confidence that there's any way to compare pitchers to everyday players.
Milton Bradley has been the best hitter in the AL when he's been healthy. He's gotten on base safely 44% of the time and pounded 22 homers and 32 doubles in just 500 plate appearances, and played a creditable outfield on those 37 occasions when he's been asked to. The problem with Bradley's candidacy is that during the nearly 40 games he's missed this season, his value to his team has been zero. That and the park effects of whatever they're calling The Ballpark at Arlington these days really hamper his claim.
As is his wont, Alex Rodriguez has been the best player in the AL this year. His .963 OPS, his 11th straight season with 35 homers, his 18 steals in 21 attempts and his good defense at an important position are straight out of MVP Central Casting. But there is no doubt that ARod has peed his pants everytime the Bombers have needed him to come up big.
Dustin Pedroia seems to have a lot of support for AL MVP. He's been the Red Sox sparkplug, hitting safely 38% of the time with surprising power -- 54 doubles and 17 jacks -- while swiping 20 of 21 bags. On top of that, he's an excellent middle infielder. He may not have the numbers of competitiors at DH and first base, but he'd be significantly more difficult to replace.
Paired with Pedroia is Ian Kinsler, whose resume is eerily similar. His on-base percentage matches Pedroia's and he's hit for even more power and succeeded in 26 of 28 steal attempts. He's also a very good second-sacker. But Pedroia gets the edge because he's played nearly 40 more games and batted in a tougher home park for offense.
Carolos Quentin's problem is not just that he's missed 32 games, but the 32 most critical of the year. As the White Sox struggle to hold off the Twins, Quentin can't contribute a thing to his team because of his broken wrist. It's not his fault that he got hit by a pitch, but it's the fact nonetheless. Lo siento, Carlos.
Kevin Youklis is a fine first-bagger with a .965 OPS who has been a steady force on the Red Sox all season, but an MVP? His credentials are more like "she has a nice personality" than "man, she's hot!" Much the same can be said for Justin Morneau, whose .883 OPS as a first baseman is just not MVP material.
I don't know how many baseball writers have slept with Morneau's wife, but something about him engenders love from the baseball media far beyond his baseball accomplishments. We already know he wasn't Deep Throat, right? With the prospect of another Morneau MVP unforeclosed, Bud Selig should agree immediately to apply the video replay rule to the BBWAA vote. That call would get overturned by a knowledgable umpire so fast it would leave Usain Bolt in the dust.
As a matter of fact, Justin Morneau is the second best player on the Twins. Imagine if you could find a guy who hits just as well, but plays a position where hitters are scarcer than truths in a presidential election. Batting champion Joe Mauer's .867 OPS comes out of a squat. The OPS of the next best fulltime AL catcher? Dioner Navarro's .756. That gives Minnesota a giant advantage over other teams.
To beat a dead horse, notice that none of the candidates has been examined in the context of his team's place in the standings. All they can do is contribute wins to their teams by swinging the ash and pumping the leather. Whether those are wins 90-99 or 70-79 is a matter for their teammates to answer for.
One more thing from the equine mortuary: there is little place in this discussion for late season heroics. Why give extra credit to a player who saddles his team with a weak first-half performance and then turns it on in August? How is that better than carrying your team to a big lead and tailing off as the summer turns to Fall? Or just playing consistantly well all 162 games?
Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer are my MVP guys and frankly I'm not sure how to distinguish them. Baseball writers who mark their ballots for ARod or Quentin or Lee will be excused for their mental absence. But if Francisco Rodriguez gets even a third place vote, the perpetrator(s) should be hunted down and forced to watch Pirate games for the next decade.
24 September 2008
French Fried
If you want to know what happened to Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur this year, all your answers are contained in one game against the Phillies.
Francoeur is a strong-armed Gold Glove candidate who flashed ample talent his first year-and-a-half in the Bigs. Because of his power without patience approach, it seemed he could go either way heading into 2007. When his walk rate doubled, his batting average jumped to .293 and he poked 40 doubles and 19 home runs, it seemed that his prospects were bright.
Then he hit the wall. His .238/.295/.358 results this year are pretty much the resume of a AAA lifer. What happened?
Yesterday happened, that's what. Frenchy made four outs on eight pitches. He struck out on three pitches twice, popped out on the first pitch once and grounded out on the first pitch once. He didn't take a single pitch.
Those aren't just bad results; it's a counter-productive approach. Francoeur never saw what Phils pitchers were throwing. He didn't make the pitchers work. He didn't wait for his pitch. He just hacked. That's why he has fanned 105 times and earned just 39 free passes.
It's very hard to hit your way out of those kinds of results. Francoeur needs to learn his way out, but taking a whole new mindset to the plate. Because if he goes up swatting at flies next year, he'll be doing it in Richmond.
Francoeur is a strong-armed Gold Glove candidate who flashed ample talent his first year-and-a-half in the Bigs. Because of his power without patience approach, it seemed he could go either way heading into 2007. When his walk rate doubled, his batting average jumped to .293 and he poked 40 doubles and 19 home runs, it seemed that his prospects were bright.
Then he hit the wall. His .238/.295/.358 results this year are pretty much the resume of a AAA lifer. What happened?
Yesterday happened, that's what. Frenchy made four outs on eight pitches. He struck out on three pitches twice, popped out on the first pitch once and grounded out on the first pitch once. He didn't take a single pitch.
Those aren't just bad results; it's a counter-productive approach. Francoeur never saw what Phils pitchers were throwing. He didn't make the pitchers work. He didn't wait for his pitch. He just hacked. That's why he has fanned 105 times and earned just 39 free passes.
It's very hard to hit your way out of those kinds of results. Francoeur needs to learn his way out, but taking a whole new mindset to the plate. Because if he goes up swatting at flies next year, he'll be doing it in Richmond.
21 September 2008
An Autumn To Remember
With two weeks left in the season and plenty of drama yet unspooled, October is shaping up rather deliciously, particularly for those of us whose hearts bleed for the fanatics of baseball's damned.
Imagine for a second that the White Sox win the AL Central and the Brewers catch the Mets for the Wild Card. We'd have a playoff agenda without a Big Apple representative, but with both denizens of the Second City and the City of Angels. World Series showdowns between the Chicagos, or the L.A.s, would be historic and exciting.
So would any Series with the Rays, Phillies or Brewers. This Milwaukee contingent has never won a baseball championship. The Phils are the worst team in baseball history, with one World Series triumph on its century-old resume, and that was 28 years ago. Tampa Bay is the worst team in recent history, having never previously threatened even mediocrity.
A Cubs-Red Sox tilt would be a kvetchfest for the ages, particularly if it concluded with celebrations on the North Side.
As of this writing, the Mets' pen has been denied the opportunity to squander the Wild Card lead, and if they ultimately fail to do so, that could still make for a compelling finale were they to play Boston. Anything that reminds us of Mookie is something to behold.
The guard may be changing with this year's leaves. It could be resplendant. It could be historic. It could be magical.
I hear they've begun playing that game with the spheroid. (Go Prarie View!) I haven't noticed, what with visions of the Fall Classic dancing in my head.
Imagine for a second that the White Sox win the AL Central and the Brewers catch the Mets for the Wild Card. We'd have a playoff agenda without a Big Apple representative, but with both denizens of the Second City and the City of Angels. World Series showdowns between the Chicagos, or the L.A.s, would be historic and exciting.
So would any Series with the Rays, Phillies or Brewers. This Milwaukee contingent has never won a baseball championship. The Phils are the worst team in baseball history, with one World Series triumph on its century-old resume, and that was 28 years ago. Tampa Bay is the worst team in recent history, having never previously threatened even mediocrity.
A Cubs-Red Sox tilt would be a kvetchfest for the ages, particularly if it concluded with celebrations on the North Side.
As of this writing, the Mets' pen has been denied the opportunity to squander the Wild Card lead, and if they ultimately fail to do so, that could still make for a compelling finale were they to play Boston. Anything that reminds us of Mookie is something to behold.
The guard may be changing with this year's leaves. It could be resplendant. It could be historic. It could be magical.
I hear they've begun playing that game with the spheroid. (Go Prarie View!) I haven't noticed, what with visions of the Fall Classic dancing in my head.
So Easy A Sportswriter Could Do It
Ryan Howard hits a lot of home runs. His 46 leads the Major Leagues. Home runs are good, as even a sportswriter can tell you.
But that's all Ryan Howard does. He's not hitting for average. He strikes out more often than Carrot Top. He doesn't run well and he's a lousy fielder at the least important position. While he walks a fair amount, Howard has been on base less than 34% of the time this year. That's not even average, much less among the league's elite.
Consequently, I'm pretty sure that no jury in the country would convict Albert Pujols for taking his Louisville Slugger to the head of anyone who proposes that Ryan Howard should be the NL MVP. This is foolhardiness on par with lending money to oodles of people who can't repay their loans.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Albert is second in the Majors in hitting, has been on base nearly 46% of the time, has a slugging average more than 100 points higher than Howard's, steals an occasional base and is a Gold Glove-caliber fielder. That he's hit 12 fewer home runs and doesn't have the good fortune to play alongside Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge don't begin to offset the chasmic difference between his value to the Cardinals and Howard's value to the Phillies.
(Baseball Prospectus estimates that Pujols has been worth about nine wins to the Cards; Howard about three wins to the Phils, and that's even before evaluating defense. In fact, according to BP, Ryan Howard is not even in the top five in value relative to his position on his own team.)
You have some irrational need to bestow the MVP on Lance Berkman, or David Wright or Hanley Ramirez or Chipper Jones? Knock yourself out. It would be the wrong choice, but you could probably concoct some justification. Ryan Howard? That would just be another strikeout.
But that's all Ryan Howard does. He's not hitting for average. He strikes out more often than Carrot Top. He doesn't run well and he's a lousy fielder at the least important position. While he walks a fair amount, Howard has been on base less than 34% of the time this year. That's not even average, much less among the league's elite.
Consequently, I'm pretty sure that no jury in the country would convict Albert Pujols for taking his Louisville Slugger to the head of anyone who proposes that Ryan Howard should be the NL MVP. This is foolhardiness on par with lending money to oodles of people who can't repay their loans.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Albert is second in the Majors in hitting, has been on base nearly 46% of the time, has a slugging average more than 100 points higher than Howard's, steals an occasional base and is a Gold Glove-caliber fielder. That he's hit 12 fewer home runs and doesn't have the good fortune to play alongside Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge don't begin to offset the chasmic difference between his value to the Cardinals and Howard's value to the Phillies.
(Baseball Prospectus estimates that Pujols has been worth about nine wins to the Cards; Howard about three wins to the Phils, and that's even before evaluating defense. In fact, according to BP, Ryan Howard is not even in the top five in value relative to his position on his own team.)
You have some irrational need to bestow the MVP on Lance Berkman, or David Wright or Hanley Ramirez or Chipper Jones? Knock yourself out. It would be the wrong choice, but you could probably concoct some justification. Ryan Howard? That would just be another strikeout.
07 September 2008
Let Manny Be....Someone Else's Headache
The Dodgers are reportedly sufficiently giddy over their acquisition of Manny Ramirez that they are talking about attempting to sign him after the season ends. In his first 119 at-bats, during which time LA has reoccupied the top of the NL West standings, Manny has clubbed 11 home runs and sports a nifty .403/.500/.748 line. He has patroled left field with gusto and verve. He has also behaved in the clubhouse in a manner approximating adulthood.
The Dodgers would be playing the role of fly in Manny's spider web. Ramirez is playing for that next contract, which will probably require something in the vicinity of four years and $80 million. That next contract is what seems to motivate him to light it up on the field and exercise self-control off it.
Once the season is complete and the t's are crossed on an agreement for 2009-2012, he will find it difficult not to revert to "being Manny." (It worked a lot better for John Malkovch.) Perhaps for a year he will slug like the Hall of Fame talent he is. Perhaps while torturing opposing pitchers he will limit his outfield antics to a tolerable level of complacency and maintain a confounding but ultimately benign air of irresponsibility. But then a couple of things are going to happen that will make Ned Colleti rue the contract offer.
First, Manny will age. He plays next year at age 37. He will slowly fade from all-time great to merely very good with the stick. His full effort will be required just to retain his general level of fielding ineptitude. His joie de vivre on the basepaths will lead to outs rather than joie.
Manny's greatness gone, management will find its patience for his off-field antics suddenly diminished. But with success on the field more elusive, Manny will struggle to continue acting unnaturally normal. Friends, it will get ugly. Imagine the pouting when Joe Torre pinch hits for him or inserts a rookie in the lineup in his sport. A $20 or $40 or $60 million albatross will hover over Chavez Ravine.
If a pennant-ready team can withstand his act and sign him for a year or two without breaking the bank, he might be a worthwhile investment. But for what it will probably take to secure his services, not signing Manny will turn out to be the best off-season move they make. You heard it here first.
The Dodgers would be playing the role of fly in Manny's spider web. Ramirez is playing for that next contract, which will probably require something in the vicinity of four years and $80 million. That next contract is what seems to motivate him to light it up on the field and exercise self-control off it.
Once the season is complete and the t's are crossed on an agreement for 2009-2012, he will find it difficult not to revert to "being Manny." (It worked a lot better for John Malkovch.) Perhaps for a year he will slug like the Hall of Fame talent he is. Perhaps while torturing opposing pitchers he will limit his outfield antics to a tolerable level of complacency and maintain a confounding but ultimately benign air of irresponsibility. But then a couple of things are going to happen that will make Ned Colleti rue the contract offer.
First, Manny will age. He plays next year at age 37. He will slowly fade from all-time great to merely very good with the stick. His full effort will be required just to retain his general level of fielding ineptitude. His joie de vivre on the basepaths will lead to outs rather than joie.
Manny's greatness gone, management will find its patience for his off-field antics suddenly diminished. But with success on the field more elusive, Manny will struggle to continue acting unnaturally normal. Friends, it will get ugly. Imagine the pouting when Joe Torre pinch hits for him or inserts a rookie in the lineup in his sport. A $20 or $40 or $60 million albatross will hover over Chavez Ravine.
If a pennant-ready team can withstand his act and sign him for a year or two without breaking the bank, he might be a worthwhile investment. But for what it will probably take to secure his services, not signing Manny will turn out to be the best off-season move they make. You heard it here first.
01 September 2008
Soldiers of Serendipity
What do CC Sabathia's one-hitter and instant replay have in common? They're both controversial because people don't understand how incredibly important luck is in sports.
Sabathia's mates are miffed that the official scorer in last night's Brewers' game credited Andy Laroche with a hit when the pitcher muffed his swinging bunt. It turned out to be the Pirates' only hit of the game, denying the big righthander a no-hitter. Milwaukee management actually appealed the hit call to the MLB front office.
At the same time, MLB has instituted instant replay to help umpires determine whether balls hit out actually leave the ballpark in fair territory. Newfangled stadiums, with their outfield nooks and crannies, apparently hamper umpire calls.
It's hard to argue that umpires and official scorers shouldn't get calls right as often as possible. But am I the only one who notices that we agonize over calls in sports that are determined by the most granular margins when twists of fate affect every play.
There's the gust of wind that catches a long fly ball and drops it into an outfielder mitt. There's the double-play grounder that hits the rubber, bounces into right field and scores two runs. There's the 0-2 slider that fools the batter into flailing desperately -- and blooping a two-out, two-run double into right field. There's the bad-hop grounder, the swinging bunt, the Texas Leaguer, the broken bat, the rain, the slick field, the shadows, the gnats and a hundred other soldiers of serendipity that turn a 2-1 win into a 9-4 loss. That doesn't even account for the freak injuries and other cosmic anomalies that transform whole seasons.
It's easy to parse one play out of a game and blame it for ruining a no-hitter, but every no-hitter is a lucky five-hitter. Unless they strike out 27 batters, pitchers don't pitch no-hitters so much as put themselves in position to do so and reap the rewards when luck shines on them. Likewise, every game is a stew of skill, execution and chance, and if an ump happens to call a home run foul when it was actually two feet inside the fair pole, well, it's not like the hitter planned to hit it that way. He was just two feet lucky in the first place.
Sabathia's mates are miffed that the official scorer in last night's Brewers' game credited Andy Laroche with a hit when the pitcher muffed his swinging bunt. It turned out to be the Pirates' only hit of the game, denying the big righthander a no-hitter. Milwaukee management actually appealed the hit call to the MLB front office.
At the same time, MLB has instituted instant replay to help umpires determine whether balls hit out actually leave the ballpark in fair territory. Newfangled stadiums, with their outfield nooks and crannies, apparently hamper umpire calls.
It's hard to argue that umpires and official scorers shouldn't get calls right as often as possible. But am I the only one who notices that we agonize over calls in sports that are determined by the most granular margins when twists of fate affect every play.
There's the gust of wind that catches a long fly ball and drops it into an outfielder mitt. There's the double-play grounder that hits the rubber, bounces into right field and scores two runs. There's the 0-2 slider that fools the batter into flailing desperately -- and blooping a two-out, two-run double into right field. There's the bad-hop grounder, the swinging bunt, the Texas Leaguer, the broken bat, the rain, the slick field, the shadows, the gnats and a hundred other soldiers of serendipity that turn a 2-1 win into a 9-4 loss. That doesn't even account for the freak injuries and other cosmic anomalies that transform whole seasons.
It's easy to parse one play out of a game and blame it for ruining a no-hitter, but every no-hitter is a lucky five-hitter. Unless they strike out 27 batters, pitchers don't pitch no-hitters so much as put themselves in position to do so and reap the rewards when luck shines on them. Likewise, every game is a stew of skill, execution and chance, and if an ump happens to call a home run foul when it was actually two feet inside the fair pole, well, it's not like the hitter planned to hit it that way. He was just two feet lucky in the first place.
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